yoda
-
Posts
59,446 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by yoda
-
-
8 hours ago, Rhino16 said:
I’m not in Richmond, but did anyone happen to hear or feel something shake around 10:45 - 10:47? Apparently it showed up on seismograms in fredericksburg…
-
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024
-
1
-
-
LWX AFD from this afternoon mentions the severe threat
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Potent low pressure in the southern stream will begin to phase with northern stream energy as it tracks through the Midwest into the Great Lakes Thursday, before moving into Canada Thursday night into Friday. A strong cold front associated with this system will approach the area Thursday before most likely passing through late Thursday through Thursday night. A strong southerly flow ahead of the system will allow for plenty of moisture to advect into the area, causing widespread showers to develop. There will be some instability, bringing the chance for thunderstorms especially later Thursday into Thursday night (ahead of the cold front). There is still low confidence regarding how unstable it will get since clouds and rain will thwart diabatic heating, but plenty of warm and moist air will cause at least some instability. A line of heavier showers and thunderstorms may develop late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing the threat for damaging wind gusts. This will be dependent on how much instability can develop an whether or not it will be rooted within the boundary layer. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flooding during this time as well.
-
1
-
-
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
We’re at the airport heading to TX this morning, so it’s sorta chips fall time. We’ll see what happens. Good luck to everyone going!
Good luck! My mom and sister are going up to Amherst in W NY (right by Buffalo). I have to stay here for work stuff
-
1
-
-
11 hours ago, 87storms said:
I think this nonsense finally ends by SundayWell the 40s does. The clouds and rain return Wednesday
-
Big game tonight... let's go Penguins!
-
Just now, MN Transplant said:
I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop. I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday
Orange peels blocking the sun?
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, yoda said:
Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon per MCD
Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031520Z - 031715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours across western into central VA. This activity will likely become organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding. Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next 1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
-
Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon per MCD
-
It's snow time!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-032315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.240404T1200Z-240405T0400Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations ranging from 4 to 6 inches above 3,500 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 2,500 and 3,500 feet, and a coating to an inch or two below 2,500 feet. Additional snow accumulation is expected overnight Thursday through Friday. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions with bursts of heavier snow showers and snow squalls. Visibility will rapidly drop below one-quarter mile at times with roads changing from wet to snow covered at times. The most impacts will be above 2,500 feet in elevation. Interstate 68 will be impacted by this. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
-
1
-
-
Winter Storm Warning up for Snowshoe... 4 to 6 inches expected
-
Surprising the sun has appeared here
-
2
-
-
SLGT still up on 1300z SPC OTLK
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario.
-
SLGT risk of severe today from the BR and east... MRGL from just east of the i81 corridor to BR
2/15/15... but 5 tor probs for S MD
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well.
-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 134 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Allegany County in western Maryland... Garrett County in western Maryland... Northern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 133 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thomas, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cumberland, Frostburg, Keyser, Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Westernport, Romney, Bel Air, Bayard, Bittinger, La Vale, Fort Ashby, Lonaconing, Piedmont, Loch Lynn Heights, Deer Park, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Cresaptown, and Potomac Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && -
Afternoon update (1730z OTLK) from SPC is late... wonder if the SLGT risk will be pulled back west some at all
-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... South central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1208 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Stonewall Jackson to 8 miles west of Holly River State Park to near Leonard, moving east at 75 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Brushy Run, Bolar, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Onego, and Clover Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3836 7973 3862 7962 3866 7963 3867 7959 3878 7951 3889 7952 3890 7945 3893 7945 3892 7937 3896 7935 3877 7908 3850 7922 3841 7932 3838 7931 3822 7944 3822 7948 3818 7952 3822 7971 3827 7980 3831 7981 TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 279DEG 66KT 3898 8045 3865 8050 3817 8038 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH -
RLX's (Charleston WV) new STW is pushing up against the LWX CWA in W VA...
-
2 minutes ago, George BM said:
Verbatim... probably an elevated supercell/multicellular cluster w/ hail. Surface temps in the upper 40s locally at that time.
Could then mean a large hail producer
-
12z 3km NAM tries to blast through something fierce at 02z into DC metro area... not sure if it's a supercell or what
-
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:26 minutes ago, yoda said:
NWUS51 KRLX 021445 LSRRLX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Charleston WV 1045 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1025 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Westwood 38.46N 82.70W 04/02/2024 Boyd KY Emergency Mngr Trailer overturned and houses nearby destroyed.-
1
-
-
NWUS51 KRLX 021445 LSRRLX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Charleston WV 1045 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1025 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Westwood 38.46N 82.70W 04/02/2024 Boyd KY Emergency Mngr Trailer overturned and houses nearby destroyed. -
2 minutes ago, yoda said:
ASOS just reported 92mph gust with that line in WV that had went through Kentucky
000 NWUS51 KRLX 021440 LSRRLX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Charleston WV 1040 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1030 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Ceredo 38.37N 82.56W 04/02/2024 M92 MPH Wayne WV ASOS
2024 Severe Weather General Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Morning day 2 OTLK from SPC (no hail probs so skipped that image)