yoda

ASOS just reported 92mph gust with that line in WV that had went through Kentucky 

Updated morning AFD from LWX 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lingers in the vicinity of the area through mid
week. Unsettled weather is expected as multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms impact the region. A series of cold fronts
sweep through the area Wednesday and Thursday bringing windy
conditions that last through the weekend. High pressure builds
overhead Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An initial round of showers and a few thunderstorms were
exiting NE MD as of mid morning. We are currently watching MCS
activity over the OH Valley that looks to move into the area
this afternoon. Near-surface stability will remain, but mid-
level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km will contribute to MUCAPE of
around 500 J/kg. This will result in a threat for isolated
thunder and possibly some spotty small hail if individual
updrafts are able to maintain enough persistent vigor and tap
into the increasing mid-level flow/shear. The severe weather
risk should remain very low until nightfall per latest
obs/trends, but may increase at least conditionally thereafter
as stronger height falls move in. In addition, instances of
flooding are appearing increasingly likely across the northern
half of the CWA as additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms traverse increasingly saturated soils

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ038>040-051-053-054-501-
502-505-506-526-527-022230-
/O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-240403T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest
Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and
Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Purcellville, Ashburn, Frederick, Laurel,
Cockeysville, Falls Church, Ballenger Creek, Annapolis, Camp
Springs, Sterling, Washington, Bethesda, Manassas,
Suitland-Silver Hill, South Gate, Culpeper, Leesburg, Severn,
Arnold, Warrenton, Elkton, Columbia, Glen Burnie, Westminster,
Chantilly, Damascus, McLean, Odenton, College Park, Centreville,
Rockville, Ellicott City, Arlington, Montclair, Jarrettsville,
Haymarket, Madison, Lake Ridge, Stanardsville, Reisterstown,
Baltimore, Bowie, Annandale, Dale City, Clinton, Lisbon,
Greenbelt, Aberdeen, Silver Spring, Reston, Germantown, Severna
Park, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Eldersburg, Woodbridge, Alexandria,
Franconia, and Turnbull
1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...District of Columbia, and portions of Maryland, including
  the following areas, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest
  Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern
  Baltimore, and Virginia, including the following areas,
  Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun,
  Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince
  William, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier and Western Loudoun.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
    through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain is most likely,
    with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may
    result in flooding of small streams and creeks. Flash
    flooding is possible.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

Here come the Flood Watches

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

MDZ003-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ050>053-055-022230-
/O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-240403T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Northern
Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
Including the cities of Front Royal, Romney, Mount Jackson,
Shepherdstown, New Market, Stanley, Shenandoah, Strasburg,
Moorefield, Martinsburg, Big Meadows, Hagerstown, Luray, Charles
Town, Paw Paw, Berryville, Woodstock, and Winchester
1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, including the
  following area, Washington, northwest Virginia, including the
  following areas, Clarke, Frederick VA, Northern Virginia Blue
  Ridge, Page, Shenandoah and Warren, and West Virginia, including
  the following areas, Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson and
  Morgan.

* WHEN...Through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
    through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain is most likely,
    with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may
    result in flooding of small streams and creeks. Flash
    flooding is possible.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

2 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

Flood warning up for AA and Howard.

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

MDC003-027-021715-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0023.240402T1410Z-240402T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Anne Arundel MD-Howard MD-
1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall earlier this morning
  is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of central Maryland, around Elkridge Maryland in
  the following counties, Anne Arundel and Howard.

* WHEN...Until 115 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1008 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
    indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms earlier this
    morning. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have
    fallen.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Elkridge...                        Arbutus...
    Ferndale...                        Brooklyn Park...
    Linthicum...                       Lansdowne...
    Linthicum Heights...               Hanover...
  - This includes the following Flood Prone Roads...
    Route 1 at Levering Avenue near the Patapsco, Route 1 at Pine
    Avenue, Race Road along Deep Run and Furnace Avenue at Ridge
    Road.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

12 minutes ago, high risk said:

Wednesday is pretty interesting.    The shear will be off of the charts, and wind damage and tornadoes seem possible in any sustained surfaced-based storms.      But how far north will the low-level warm air get?   Pretty good agreement it makes it into southern MD and also pretty good agreement that it doesn't make it north of the DC Beltway.   The in-between zone (including DC) has a fair amount of uncertainty.

When you say low-level warm air, is that related to or correlate with the warm front?  Or is it something different?

Morning AFD from LWX on the threats

couple of rounds of thunderstorms moves across the area this
afternoon and evening, and some of these are likely to be strong to
severe. In areas where the CAD remains the severe threat is going to
be from elevated storms producing hail. Model soundings indicate
around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and strong shear will be present, so
some of these storms could produce large hail of 1 to 2". SPC has
the CAD area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today.

The Slight Risk for severe storms has been expanded slightly
eastward along/south of I-66 to the Fredericksburg area, and extends
west along US-48 up through western MD. This is where storms pushing
in from the OH Valley will have the most favorable environment of
surface-based instability, strong shear, and large scale forcing for
ascent. Given the cold temperatures aloft and elevated instability
present, it is certainly possible a few supercells develop along the
I-64 corridor that are capable of producing hail of 2" or greater. A
tornado or two cannot be rule out, though that threat is confined to
the far southwestern CWA (peak threat around Highland County).

After the main severe threat window passes, expect a wet night as
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue moving
across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The large cutoff low over the OH Valley slowly pivots eastward
toward the Mid-Atlantic. Strong forcing for ascent is going to be
present across the region, with widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms ongoing sunrise Wednesday. As the morning progresses,
a wave of low pressure will cross east of the Blue Ridge, rapidly
deepening as it moves toward southern NJ. A broken line of showers
and thunderstorms is likely to develop along/east of US-15, then
rapidly push eastward across the area through Wednesday afternoon.
Even though instability is low, there will be an incredible amount
of shear as the triple point of the surface low crosses the area. In
addition to damaging winds, QLCS tornadoes will be a possibility.
SPC has upgraded parts of the area to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5),
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge.

Day 2 OTLK out... SLGT risk i95 and east... MGRL i81 to i95... 2/15/15... this is for Wednesday 

ay 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
   INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly
   including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for
   Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered
   over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee
   Valley.  Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and
   as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas.

   ...Synopsis...
   While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central
   third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave
   feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across
   the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. 
   By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over
   the Illinois vicinity.

   At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is
   progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting
   northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding
   northward into Lower Michigan overnight.  A cold front associated
   with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio
   Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper
   Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest
   late.  Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east
   as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania,
   though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern
   Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming
   over the Northeast.

   ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
   Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards
   severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the
   Ohio Valley area at the start of the period.  This convection should
   reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though
   potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across
   the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east
   to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence.  

   As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves
   into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi
   and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur
   during the afternoon.  While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat
   difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of
   cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve.  Given the
   ample destabilization expected in combination with very
   strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is
   evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and
   several significant tornadoes.

   The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of
   intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the
   spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially
   reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far
   western Pennsylvania into the evening.  Eastward advance of the risk
   into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise
   threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the
   Carolinas late.

Afternoon day 2 update from SPC has MOD risk in Ohio, ENH near W MD and SLGT risk east of i81 corridor 

2 minutes ago, TheWeatherPimp said:

The SPC Day 2 outlook is......real late. I hear via chat that a Moderate Risk is coming. 

Correct, MOD up for most of OH

FYI re the radar

NOUS61 KLWX 011347
FTMLWX

MESSAGE DATE:  APR 01 2024 13:45:37

THE WSR-88D KLWX IS CURRENTLY OFFLINE AS TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY
PERFORMING REQUIRED MAINTENANCE. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

LFR

35 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I think I might have had more thunder already than all of last summer LOL

My area has 12-ish inches of rainfall for the first quarter of the year and April looks to start off wet

So no being missed?

SLGT risk for almost all LWX CWA into S PA on Tuesday and Tuesday night 

Day 2 MRGL up... 0/5/5

   ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
   An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday
   across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
   forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into
   the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for
   convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight
   period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the
   boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should
   support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an
   extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will
   likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be
   more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited
   low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic.

Wind gust to 41mph at KDCA 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1043 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 ESE Bay Ridge         38.92N  76.36W
03/30/2024  M61 mph          ANZ532             MD   Buoy

            Wind gusts of up to 53 knots (61 MPH) were measured by
            the Kent Island WeatherFlow sensor (XKNT) between 10:29
            and 10:34 PM.


&&

Event Number LWX2402885

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1046 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saunders Point Light    38.88N  76.48W
03/30/2024  M62 mph          ANZ532             MD   Buoy

            Wind gusts of up to 54 knots (62 MPH) were measured by
            the Saunders Point Light WeatherFlow sensor (XMTR)
            between 10:30 and 10:40 PM.


&&

Event Number LWX2402888

And now a TVS marker lol

@WxUSAF what's with Radarscope showing two rotation markers?

Special Marine Warnings up for the waters 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Yes they are. If Bradish and Means come back healthy it could be a deep run in October. 

Too bad my Rangers will be in your way

Who wants some more snow?  From this mornings AFD 

Mountain Snow (Thursday/Friday): The first in a series of cold
fronts crosses the area early Wednesday morning, as the base of the
cutoff mid-level low moves across PA/NY. Colder temperatures surge
into the Alleghenies by Wednesday afternoon, causing precip to
transition from rain to snow by Wednesday night. Favorable dynamics
and ample moisture could result in a prolonged period of upslope
mountain snow. Marginal temperatures likely limit accumulations
through Wednesday evening, then better chance for snow to stick
Thursday into Friday. The GFS in particular is much higher than the
other guidance, showing significant snow accumulations late in the
week. At the very least 1-3", possibly up to 4-5", of accumulating
snow is possible at the higher elevations. Light snow could fall as
east as the Blue Ridge/Catoctins

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active weather pattern is likely to develop during the middle to
late part of next week, bringing possibly impactful weather to the
area. A strong Southern Stream Jet overspreads the area, with a
broad wave of mid-level energy phasing with a digging mid-level
trough from the Great Lakes. This is could bring strong to severe
storms and/or a flood threat to parts of the area Tuesday. The
ensuing mid-level cutoff low slowly moves east, as additional
embedded shortwaves rotate around the western side of the low. This
could bring mountain snow Wednesday night into Thursday, as well as
windy conditions to end the week.

The current temperature forecast for Tuesday is highly uncertain,
and will be dependent on precip, cloud cover, and the placement of a
warm front somewhere over or near the area. The area could be wedged
in the cooler airmass, keeping temps in the 50s, or warm advection
scours out the low-level inversion resulting in 60/70s for highs.
The first in a series of cold fronts crosses the area early
Wednesday morning, bringing gustier and near-normal temperatures
Wednesday through Friday.

Severe/Flood Threat (Tuesday/Wednesday): A warm front is forecast to
be draped across the CWA early in the week, likely producing a large
north to south temperature gradient. This is going to play a key
role in whether we see any strong/severe storms, and/or a potential
flood setup if other conditions line up. SPC has most of the area in
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for Tuesday. The
threat appears to be greatest in the Alleghenies and south of US-50
where there is the greatest chance of instability developing. Around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with a strong deep-layer shear (60-
75KT possible based on model soundings) could produce a favorable
environment for all modes of severe weather. A residual severe
threat is possible Wednesday in central VA. A flood threat could
develop along or north of the warm frontal boundary where training
storms result in heavier rain rates.

These aspects of the forecast remains highly uncertain, be sure to
stay tuned for additional updates in the coming days.