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yoda

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  1. yoda
    06z NAM Nest and 07z HRRR are kind of boring for most of the region except maybe south and east of DC
  2. yoda
    Its rain contaminated, but 06z NAM has a TOR sounding near KDCA at 00z from what looks like a single supercell moving through DC metro on sim radar. Not much else going on across the region besides some showers/storms south and east of DC metro by 21z
  3. yoda
    Its MRGL on the early new day 1 (0600z) but LWX seems to agree with you in their morning disco .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front currently over the OH valley will move across our area today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The early morning showers and few embedded storms in WV and western PA will move into the Alleghenies by sunrise. Not expecting any strong storms, though some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is going to focus along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, though a few strong storms could also develop in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Morning cloud cover is expected to quickly dissipate, allowing for good diurnal heating and destabilization to take place. Temps this afternoon reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points still in the lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist as PWATs hover around 2.0" through the afternoon. Most of the high res models indicate a broken line of thunderstorms developing along the front as it reaches I-81, but especially as it moves east of the Blue Ridge where the better instability will be. Deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to allow some organized strong to severe convection to get going. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, though that could be upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of the Blue Ridge later this morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat from storms. Faster storm motion should prevent any significant flooding issues from occurring, though there will be quick downpours in the stronger storms. The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then any lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late evening. Dry conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 50s along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.
  4. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 MDC031-060015- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-240606T0015Z/ Montgomery MD- 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 743 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Gaithersburg, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Olney, Aspen Hill, and Redland around 750 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Derwood, Spencerville, Brookeville, Washington Grove, Sandy Spring, Ednor, Ashton, Brinklow, Burtonsville, and Cloverly. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3921 7701 3919 7701 3917 7700 3916 7697 3915 7697 3914 7695 3913 7696 3913 7694 3912 7693 3911 7721 3915 7721 3924 7705 TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 261DEG 17KT 3914 7719 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  5. yoda
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather today through Thursday as a series of fronts cross the region. Mostly dry conditions on Friday in the wake of the cold front. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes this weekend leading to more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MORNING UPDATE: Muggy conditions continue this morning, with much of the area exceeding 70 degree dew points. Flow has turned out of the south to south-southeast ahead of an approaching weather system that will impact the region later today. Showers are ongoing across portions of the region, and will likely continue to increase in coverage in the next few hours. Instability is already decent, even amidst the abundant cloudcvoer, as CAPE values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range already. So, we should be on track with the early morning forecast, which is below.
  6. yoda
    12z NAM though has a pretty decent curved hodo in the DC metro at 00z tonight... so could have a weak spinny
  7. yoda
    That would be quite hilarious to see tbh
  8. yoda
    From this morning LWX AFD re heavy rain threat Flash Flood Threat: This is likely to be the biggest threat of the day as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms move across the area. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk of flooding to encompass most areas along/north of I-66, the northern Shenandoah Valley, and Alleghenies. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is likely, with isolated amounts up to 3-4 inches is possible. A very important feature to watch is the subtle surface boundary located from Central VA to around Norfolk early this morning. The increasing southerly flow will push this boundary north into our area this afternoon, likely somewhere along or north of the Potomac River. Storms today are likely to be efficient rain producers given the deep warm cloud layer, a moist airmass, sufficient shear, and low-level convergence into the previously mentioned boundary. While mean storm motion is likely to be fast, around 15-20 knots, the multiple rounds of heavy rain could cause issues in urban areas. The 00Z guidance shows the potential for locally heavy rainfall, but exactly where that occurs remains to be seen. The heavy rain footprint various still varies quite a bit from model to model, which is expected in this type of disorganized/cluster storm mode. Given the sensitivities of the DC and Baltimore metros, a targeted Flood Watch has been issued from 12PM today through tonight to account for possible flash flooding due to multiple rounds of storms. Elsewhere, FFG values are high enough and convection spaced out enough that a Flood Watch is not warranted at this time. However, the current watch may be expanded later today depending on future model data.
  9. yoda
    Synoptic/Mesoscale Setup: A mid-level shortwave through will move across the area today, bringing around 20-30 knots of deep-layer shear. Some of the high res models indicate higher shear values are possible during the peak convective window this afternoon/evening. Instability will be limited for the first half of the day as widespread cloud cover is slow to dissipate this morning. Increasing southerly winds within the boundary layer should be strong enough to break the inversion, leading to sufficient heating/instability this afternoon. Given dew points in the lower 70s east of the Blue Ridge, though mid-level lapse rates are meager, there should be at least 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, though mid 80s are possible along/south of I-66 if cloud cover can break earlier in the afternoon. Severe Threat: SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for most areas along/east of I-81 and north of I-64. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, and a tornado or two is also possible. Saturated soundings, with a deep warm cloud layer and modestly steep low-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) favor wet microbursts in any organized line segments/clusters of storms. The tornado threat is evident in the favorably curved low-level hodographs in the model soundings, though it is limited by weaker shear and lower instability.
  10. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-506-526-527-051615- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0015.240605T1600Z-240606T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Clinton, Annandale, Manassas, Rockville, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Dale City, Centreville, Chantilly, Silver Spring, Washington, Ashburn, Arnold, Annapolis, Falls Church, Arlington, College Park, McLean, Lake Ridge, Camp Springs, Reston, Odenton, Germantown, Severn, Franconia, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Montclair, Baltimore, Bowie, Columbia, Herndon, Ellicott City, Sterling, Laurel, Suitland-Silver Hill, Bethesda, Alexandria, Damascus, Haymarket, South Gate, Lisbon, Woodbridge, and Greenbelt 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia, in Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and in northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and Northwest Prince William. * WHEN...From noon EDT today through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across the area today into this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information
  11. yoda
    Well that's a surprise to see on the new Day 1... MRGL yes (good call @high risk) but a chance of a tornado or 2?
  12. yoda
    Sorry Orioles fans https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/john-means-tyler-wells-to-undergo-ucl-surgery.html
  13. yoda
    And nice MCSs
  14. yoda
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 202 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VAZ503-WVZ505-310215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.240531T0600Z-240531T1200Z/ Western Highland-Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Riverton and Hightown 202 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
  15. yoda
    PBZ (Pittsburgh) and RLX (Charleston WV) issued frost advisories for tonight in their mountainous zones
  16. yoda
    SPC did make a mention in its Day 4-8 OTLK as @high risk described above in his post Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024
  17. yoda
    LWX updated AFD seems to think between 2pm and 10pm l Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1015 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure will gradually build in from the Great Lakes through Saturday, before retreating offshore early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KLWX radar loop as of 945AM shows showers tracking east along the Alleghenies towards the Blue Ridge. To the west of the area, additional rain showers can be seen over West Virginia and approaching the western portions of the forecast area. Looking at visible satellite, cloud cover is increasing as cumulus clouds develop west of the Blue Ridge. Sunny skies can be seen along and east of the Blue Ridge, but cloud cover is expected to increase in these areas late this morning into the early afternoon. 12Z CAMs are indicating a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms, moving through the area from 2PM to 10PM, with slightly more favorable conditions. CAPE values nearing and exceeding 500J/kg and 30-40 knots of shear are not overly favorable, but are slightly increased from overnight. Will continue to monitor as the previous forecast package remains on track with late morning to afternoon convection
  18. yoda
    Verified for a severe thunderstorm watch if there had been one with 6 damage reports so far... naso much the tornado watch
  19. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service State College PA 759 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Schuylkill County in central Pennsylvania... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 758 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Mahanoy City, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Tamaqua, Coaldale, and Hometown around 800 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Trenton and Mary-D. This includes Interstate 81 from mile markers 132 to 138. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4076 7608 4083 7610 4089 7605 4089 7596 4081 7589 4076 7580 TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 280DEG 27KT 4082 7600 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$
  20. yoda
    Confirmed tornado
  21. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 753 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... South central Arlington County in northern Virginia... Southern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 752 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bull Run, or near Centreville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Annandale, Springfield, Fort Washington, Fairfax, Fort Hunt, Groveton, Huntington, Mantua, Fort Belvoir, Woodbridge, National Harbor, Lake Ridge, Burke, Linton Hall, Lincolnia, and Lorton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for southern and central Maryland...and northern Virginia. && LAT...LON 3880 7702 3876 7703 3875 7701 3874 7703 3872 7703 3870 7704 3869 7706 3870 7707 3868 7711 3863 7711 3862 7712 3872 7759 3884 7756 3887 7716 TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 275DEG 26KT 3879 7749 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  22. yoda
    Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 743 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0724 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 W Towson 39.40N 76.63W 05/27/2024 Baltimore MD 911 Call Center A couple of trees and wires blew down and a house was struck by lightning on Malvern Court. && Event Number LWX2403173
  23. yoda
    Numerous trees and wires down in Potomac and near I270/Rockville per EM
  24. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 740 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The north central District of Columbia... Southern Howard County in central Maryland... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Potomac, or over Bethesda, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Rockville, Bethesda, Olney, College Park, Langley Park, Beltsville, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Fairland, White Oak, Redland, Takoma Park, Adelphi, Colesville, Kemp Mill, Chevy Chase, North Kensington, South Kensington, and Forest Glen. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for District of Columbia...and central Maryland.
  25. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 728 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... * Until 1030 PM EDT. * At 728 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Pikesville... Ellicott City... Towson... Woodlawn... Randallstown... Parkville... Eldersburg... Milford Mill... Lochearn... Daniels... Granite... Woodstock... Marriottsville... West Friendship... Glenelg... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. && LAT...LON 3938 7676 3939 7664 3938 7658 3937 7657 3934 7659 3930 7663 3930 7674 3930 7683 3929 7688 3925 7703 3928 7704 3935 7690 3935 7688 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
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