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yoda

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  1. yoda
  2. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central and Eastern Maryland Central and Eastern North Carolina Eastern and Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across the region. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risk, but some hail is possible, and a moist environment and strong atmospheric winds will also support a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Baltimore MD to Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer
  3. yoda
    Tornado Watch up until 11pm for the region
  4. yoda
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A potent cold front will track through the Mid-Atlantic this evening and into the overnight. A secondary cold front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent cold front is set to push through the Mid-Atlantic this evening and into tonight, bringing severe weather to the area. With a warm and humid air mass in place today, moderate instability (SBCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) is expected with highest values along and east of I-95, especially in northeast Maryland. As of 2PM, a few showers are moving through the forecast area along and east of I-95 with skies beginning to clear along and west of the Blue Ridge. As the rain showers move out of the area and clearing skies move eastward, instability is expected to increase this afternoon and into this evening. Convective initiation is expected in the next hour or so with some storms already beginning to pop up. Once convection initializes, damaging wind gusts continue to be the primary hazard type with strengthening wind fields and destabilization of the atmosphere. Large hail is possible in discrete cells along with an isolated tornado threat with a slight curve in model hodographs. PW values of 1.5-2 inches, with isolated pockets of 2"+ in NE MD, will lead to isolated instances of heavy rainfall. WPC has the northeastern portions of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Adequate storm motion should limit flooding risk, but any training or back building could lead to an increased hydro threat.
  5. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for NJ/NY/PA until 9pm
  6. yoda
    Winds are pretty much still from the south on the 1pm obs across the region 77/69 S12 at DCA is their 1pm observation
  7. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally.
  8. yoda
    1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the 5% tor for the BR and east in the LWX CWA... along with 15 wind and 15 hail
  9. yoda
    esoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE... central/western PA...NJ...and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271553Z - 271800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting organized bands of convection is already in place across the region. A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1013.html
  10. yoda
    I'm going to guess severe thunderstorm watch up north and tornado watch in the southern part
  11. yoda
    22/12/5
  12. yoda
    1 fatality confirmed in yesterday's severe weather in Nelson County Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0807 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 E Norwood 37.64N 78.72W 05/26/2024 Nelson VA Law Enforcement *** 1 Fatal *** Nelson County Sheriff confirmed one person died when thunderstorm winds downed a tree limb onto the vehicle they were sheltering in near Wingina && Event Number LWX2403171
  13. yoda
    5/15/15 remains on 1300z SPC OTLK
  14. yoda
    I see some breaks in the clouds and some sun
  15. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 403 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid air mass will persist through today. A cold front will push through the area tonight. A secondary cold front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some notable changes were observed in the latest guidance early this morning and it is mainly to delay convective initiation this afternoon and push back the timing of the frontal passage until mid evening. The severe risk also has shifted more east to areas along and east of I-95 and east of Rt 15 in northern MD. Latest CAMs this morning show several broken short line segments including bows developing across the northern neck of VA lifting NE into southern MD. Other short line segments are seeing on the reflectivity products over north central MD into southern PA. The primary threat remains damaging winds due to strengthening wind fields and moderate instability (~1500 J/kg), but a couple of tornadoes and isold large hail are also possible. Severe risk should diminish quickly after 00Z and be over completely by 02Z Tue.
  16. yoda
    Morning 0600z disco for us from SPC... currently 5/15/15 ..Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions.
  17. yoda
    I'm going to go with 5/15/15 on the Day 2 morning update.
  18. yoda
    Uh oh
  19. yoda
    18z NAM NEST and 18z NAM soundings still are really nasty. 18z NAM NEST even has some very high UDH swaths just north of DC. Some of the hodographs are very elongated and very curved too
  20. yoda
    12z NAM and 12z NAM Nest soundings look pretty nasty as well
  21. yoda
    06z NAM NEST has some pretty dangerous soundings for the area at 18z Mon... though the sim radar would suggest clouds over the area I believe. Also, 18z Monday is at the end of its run 06z NAM soundings are also dangerous for the region. When I say dangerous, I mean like we rarely see some of these types of soundings in our area/region IMHO
  22. yoda
    Some pretty nasty looking soundings on the 00z NAM at 21z Monday and 00z Tuesday across the region
  23. yoda
    Looks like there were a few LSRs of ping pong ball sized hail this afternoon... one on Shenandoah county; the other in Loudoun just NW of IAD
  24. yoda
    vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC055-065-075-141-240115- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/ Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK- 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES... At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908 3447 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
  25. yoda
    18z GFS looks like a significant severe weather episode for us Monday afternoon/evening
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