yoda

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 833 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 NYZ001-002-010>012-020-021-085-180230- Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Southern Erie NY-Wyoming NY-Orleans NY- Genesee NY-Niagara NY-Northern Erie NY- 833 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING... HAZARDS...An area of heavy lake effect snow will continue to move northeast across much of the Niagara Frontier this evening, including all of the Buffalo Metro area. This initial wide area of moderate to heavy snow will drop a quick few inches across much of the area. Following this first burst of snow, a more narrow, focused band of heavy lake effect snow will develop in the Buffalo Metro area late this evening. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Batavia, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster, Hamburg, East Aurora, Medina, Albion, Williamsville and Darien Lakes State Park. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 57A.

Where is this?

They can't move it to Monday and can't delay to later in day apparently

Lol https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35047642/republicans-end-house-review-commanders-2023

FWIW... again, might be more SNE centric, but still 12z EPS:

Damn Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 1259 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers early, then partly sunny with a chance of snow showers late. Cold with highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .TONIGHT...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible. Snow may be heavy at times. Accumulation 9 to 17 inches in the most persistent snows. Lows ranging from the upper 20s inland to the lower 30s along the Lake Erie shore. West winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southwest. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .FRIDAY...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional accumulation 9 to 17 inches in the most persistent snows. Cold with highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows ranging from the lower 20s inland to the mid 20s along the Lake Erie shore. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .SATURDAY...Lake effect snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s.

Lake Effect Snow Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 219 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 NYZ010-011-180330- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.221118T0000Z-221120T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 219 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The greatest risk of the highest totals will be from South Buffalo to Lancaster. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce patchy blowing snow. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. The heavy snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

I'll be watching from home... but I've already alerted my aunt and uncle who live up near Amherst about this

Shutting down alot of road this afternoon https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkbw.com/news/local-news/portion-of-nys-thruway-in-wny-closing-to-commercial-traffic-at-4-p-m-thursday%3f_amp=true

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 NYZ010-011-170300- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.221118T0000Z-221120T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 139 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Snowfall totals of up to 4 feet will be possible if the main snow band remains stationary for longer period of time. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Pulled from the SNE forum... I know it may be centric to them... but still good disco

LWX went WWAs for basically i81 corridor westward... including E WV and W MD

So the WDI will be high this year lol

18z GFS was lulz

Wow... what a game... what an ending

Hmmm

Just started reading it... but @40/70 Benchmark winter forecast is out. I know it may be more centric to SNE... but always an excellent read and you will always learn something in his outlooks

Nice Penguins win last night

Well written AFD from LWX this afternoon .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Hurricane Nicole, now Tropical Storm Nicole, will impact the area Friday into Friday night. Nicole will continue to weaken as the storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the potential for multiple hazards to the region. With the ensemble mean low track near or just west of the Allegheny Front, the region will be in the warm sector of the decaying remnants. A strong southerly flow of 40-55 kts right above the surface will result in a rather dynamic wind field and advect Tds into the mid to upper 60s with PWs 3-4 SA above normal. Given the building instability and lift associated with the first quasi- warm frontal band, rain showers will likely overspread the region near or by daybreak Friday. Expect continued showers with isolated thunderstorms through the day, though coverage likely remains isolated to scattered in nature. By the afternoon once the first source of synoptic lift moves through, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon. By the evening, all attention will focus to the remnant low and south/southeast extending frontal feature which could be the focus for damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. The track and speed of the low will ultimately determine how much instability rooted within the boundary layer remains post sunset due to diurnal constraints of instability this time of year. Given the strong wind field, any instability may be sufficient for the production of isolated severe thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. Now for the hazards Heavy Rain Potential ... With the persistent south/southeast flow and moisture advection into the area, the Blue Ridge (southern Blue Ridge near Wintergreen) will be the focus for the highest QPF amounts (2-3", locally higher) through the event. With the persistent south/southeast flow, the area to the northwest of the Blue Ridge (Shenandoah Valley and the Hampshire to Hardy County area into Washington County) could actually downslope resulting in less QPF across that area. The secondary maximum in QPF is likely across the eastern slopes of the Allegheny Front (1-3"). Along and east of I-95 much lower amounts of an inch or less are expected. With the low tracking along or west of the Alleghenies, the forcing will be better in that area. To the east, the intermittent nature and lack of persistent forcing will result in lower amounts. Believe the relative lack or suppressed amounts of instability will help tamper the Flash Flood threat even though PWs are near 1.75". FFG is also the highest it has been in some time given the 2-3" departure from normal precipitation over the region from the past 30 days. With that being said, isolated to scattered instances of flooding are possible Friday and Friday night along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains (especially in areas near higher terrain susceptible to poor drainage). All ensembles and MARFC keep rivers below any flood stages. Severe Thunderstorm Potential ... From an environmental standpoint, most ingredients will exist Friday afternoon/evening. The shear (50-60+ kts), SRH (100-300 m2/s2), LCLs (<1000m at times), SPC/STP (>1), extra/sub-tropical rainbands all are worrisome. However, there is considerably uncertainty regarding how much instability (CAPE) exists when the aforementioned band moves through the region (generally speaking near 7 PM through 1 AM) and remains rooted within the boundary layer. Some guidance has the instability elevated by the time this feature moves through. There could be discrete low-topped supercells as indicated by some guidance and supported by model soundings ahead of this feature during the afternoon hours. Regardless, severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday evening. Damaging Wind Potential ... With a dynamic wind field just above the surface (40-55kts), the focus and tricky part of the forecast will be how much and if any of this mixes down to the surface Friday evening into the overnight. Model guidance diverges on if this makes it to the surface, but given the bias of some guidance to bring down too much rain on the backside of precipitation, have opted not to pursue Wind Advisories at this time. There is likely a 1-3 hour surge of enhanced winds (perhaps 30-45 mph) translating from SSW to NNE through the center of the CWA Friday evening into the overnight. Therefore, gusty winds may result in an isolated wind damage threat Friday evening through Friday night. The areas of greatest concern area especially along the higher ridges of the Allegheny Front, Blue Ridge, and Catoctin Mountains.

@high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat. SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there)

Good timing PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1154 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2022 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D WEATHER RADAR IN STERLING, VA PLANNED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2022, THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR, OPERATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING, VA, HAS BEEN DOWN FOR THE REPLACEMENT OF ITS EMERGENCY GENERATOR, FUEL TANKS, AND ACCOMPANYING COMPONENTS. THIS SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, AND THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OF COURSE AN ISSUE COULD STILL ARISE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DELAY THIS. THIS MAINTENANCE IS IMPORTANT TO SUPPORT THE RADAR’S OPERATION DURING PERIODS OF COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGES, INCLUDING WHEN HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT OR IN THE VICINITY. THIS GENERATOR UPDATE IS ONE OF FIVE MAJOR PROJECTS OF THE NEXRAD SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM, A SERIES OF UPGRADES AND REPLACEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP OUR NATION’S NETWORK OF RADARS VIABLE INTO THE THE NEXT DECADE. NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, AND THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION ARE INVESTING $150 MILLION IN THE SEVEN YEAR PROGRAM. THE FIRST PROJECT WAS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSOR AND THE SECOND PROJECT WAS THE TRANSMITTER REFURBISHMENT. THE TWO REMAINING PROJECTS ARE THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE PEDESTAL AND EQUIPMENT SHELTERS. THE SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM WILL COMPLETE IN 2023. DURING THE DOWNTIME, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM ADJACENT WSR-88D RADARS, INCLUDING: KDIX FT. DIX NJ KDOV DOVER DE KAKQ WAKEFIELD VA KFCX BLACKSBURG VA KRLX CHARLESTON WV KPBZ PITTSBURGH PA ADDITIONALLY, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM NEARBY FAA TERMINAL WEATHER RADARS (TDWRS) LOCATED AT: TIAD WASHINGTON DULLES TDCA WASHINGTON NATIONAL TBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL TADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV A SINGLE RADAR SITE CAN BE VIEWED BY GOING TO THE “SELECT VIEW” MENU OPTION THEN CLICKING ON “LOCAL RADAR” TO SELECT A SINGLE RADAR SITE. THE KLWX WSR-88D IS PART OF A NETWORK OF 159 OPERATIONAL RADARS. THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDES LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT FOR ALL WSR-88DS. FOR A RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING, VA CAN BE FOUND ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT @NWS_BALTWASH

Better let the NHC know then since their latest disco says barely any strengthening

There's not enough lulz for this post

MRGL risk of severe on Friday afternoon into Friday night per Day 3 SPC OTLK

00z GFS still drops 2-3 inches across much of VA from CHO to I95 corridor into C MD