yoda

1630z OTLK remains same

Updated AFD from LWX thinks so

Watch coming later this afternoon for parts of the LWX CWA per MCD

Mesoscale Discussion 1736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...NY Hudson Valley into parts of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271505Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will increase later today. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across northern NY this morning, and will approach northern New England by early afternoon. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface low will move across northern NY/VT, as rich low-level moisture streams northeastward into a larger portion of New England. The 13 UTC sounding from SUNY-Albany depicts a favorable wind profile for organized convection, with rather strong midlevel flow and deep-layer shear, but also very weak midlevel lapse rates. Despite the weak lapse rates and rather widespread cloudiness, modest boundary-layer heating/moistening and ascent attendant to the shortwave trough will likely support deepening convection by early afternoon across the region. With weak instability, it may take some time for storms to mature, but a few supercells and organized clusters may evolve with time. Rather strong low-level flow will support a damaging-wind threat, especially where somewhat stronger heating can occur. Also, while the strongest low-level shear/SRH will tend to be somewhat displaced from the more favorable instability, a tornado or two will also be possible, given the potential for supercells within a very moist and favorably shear environment. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

That's pretty much going to be our severe potential for the next few days -- wind. Maybe a slight chance of a large hail report or weak spin-up

No change in the 1300z SPC OTLK

SLGT risk remains for today on the 1300z SPC OTLK

Dang does 00z NAM sim radar look TASTY for Saturday night lol ETA -- Haven't seen a PDS TOR sounding in a while either... 00z NAM tossing those out at hour 72 near the WV/VA border into E WV just west of the i81 corridor

Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night

That's some explosive development of severe storms tomorrow afternoon on the 18z NAM NEST 18z HRRR is pretty good IMO

I'm thinking 100 on Friday at DCA... didn't Ian have a chart or something that had like temperatures that we needed to be at or hit in the morning to reach 100? Like 90 by 10am?

Probably... but was thinking EHW just because first time it's really hot (temperatures near 100 and HI nearing 110)

Recurve and barely gets us anything

Maybe some EHWs? LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the middle to latter portions of the week, an anomalous upper ridge maintains its stranglehold over the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, troughing across eastern Canada gradually retreats northward as a western Atlantic ridge expands back to the Eastern Seaboard. In between the pair of ridges will be a weakness in the flow extending from the Gulf Coast up toward the Tennessee Valley. Overall, ensembles agree on above average 500-mb heights extending across a vast majority of the country. This results in a notable warming trend across the Mid-Atlantic region, likely resulting in the hottest stretch of the year. Multi-ensemble temperature plots show highs soaring well into the 90s during the period, particularly on Thursday and Friday. During these days, models are in agreement in carrying high temperatures to the upper 90s. Low-level moisture should be abundant owing to a multi-day period of warm/moist advection. Expectations are dew points will rise into the low 70s which allows heat indices to surge into the 105 to 110 degree range. As this stands, heat-related headlines would be needed both days if the forecast holds up. As is common in these regimes, little relief is expected at night with most seeing low temperatures in the 70s. While the region is well into the "Dog Days of Summer", the hottest stretch of the year will certainly require added public response. This would include limiting outdoor exposure during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, wearing light-colored clothes, and finding air-conditioned indoor spaces. Despite all the heat and humidity in the atmosphere, daily convective chances are quite limited. The upper ridging should squash many of the developing updrafts. The best chance for any relief from such storms would be across the Alleghenies. Thunderstorm chances increase into next weekend as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west. A gradual reduction in mid/upper heights is forecast to slowly bring temperatures back to the low/mid 90s next weekend.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Don Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don's structure on satellite imagery remains well organized for a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude in late July. A small but distinct eye has persisted, surrounded by moderately cold cloud tops. However, the coldest cloud tops are beginning to erode on the north edge of the eye, and the upper-level outflow has also become more restricted in that direction. These factors likely indicate that Don is starting to feel the effects of nearby cooler waters and increased vertical wind shear that will ultimately lead to a swift decline in intensity. For now, the latest subjective Dvorak estimates were T4.0 (65 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and objective intensity estimates currently range from 53 kt to 69 kt. It is worth noting that UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have been much lower, apparently due to that objective technique failing to pick up on the eye pattern seen on satellite today. Discounting that outlier, a blend of other subjective and objective data supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Don's wind radii have also been adjusted some due to a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 2348 UTC. Now that Don is moving north of a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, the cyclone should soon encounter much colder sea-surface temperatures along its track. Thus, steady weakening is expected to begin shortly. As Don quickly loses its deep convection, the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, with the circulation expected to open up into a trough axis after 48 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Don is now moving to the north-northeast a bit faster than before at 015/12 kt. A continued turn to the northeast with a bit more acceleration is anticipated overnight into tomorrow as Don is embedded within southwesterly steering flow between a subtropical ridge to its southeast and a deep-layer trough located over eastern Canada. This pattern should persist until Don dissipates, with the system continuing to recurve eastward over the next 48 h. The track guidance has shifted a bit faster than the prior cycle but still remains along a similar trajectory. Thus the NHC track forecast remains very close to the prior track, but just a little faster. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.4N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 47.2N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 48.1N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Hurricane Don Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 ...DON STILL A HURRICANE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 49.6W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Don was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 49.6 West. Don is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn northeastward is expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward motion expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will bring dry conditions with sunshine on Tuesday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. A stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but most areas should be dry. A large ridge of high pressure will set up during the middle to latter part of the week. This high will keep conditions hot and dry for the most part. Temperatures could reach well into the 90s Thursday and Friday and could hit 100 degrees in a few places. Higher dewpoint temperatures could lead to higher heat index values as well. Heat indices could reach 100 to 110 degrees during the hottest time of the days. We will continue to monitor the upcoming heat to end the work week. An afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out each day, but it appears that most of the time will be dry due to limited forcing and higher heights.

I don't think they will be finishing tonight at Fenway with the tweets lol

Or maybe like 3-0?

It's going to be like 8-0

Just got rain delayed

Looks like some 100 degree heat will be coming next week

Nice Orioles win in 10 tonight, 4-3

8:30pm LWX AFD evening update .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Unsettled weather pattern is expected for tonight with strong storms likely and severe storms possible. Current analysis shows an MCS ahead of a cold front moving into Pennsylvania while another area of convection approaches the Shenandoah Valley from the southwest, which is in association with a weaker shortwave/outflow boundary that is passing by to the south. For this evening, the activity to our southwest will most likely propagate into the central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands. Note the west to southwest flow over western VA converging into the south to southeast flow over the central Shenandoah Valley. There is an area of higher MLCAPE over this area as well. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening across this area, and with moderate effective deep layer shear, some storms may become severe. Damaging wind is the primary threat, but an isolated instance of hail is possible as well. Also, there is a decent amount of moisture pull, looking at the 925 and 850mb moisture transport from the southwest. This, combined with a light low-level flow means that some storms may hug terrain or convective boundaries, causing a threat for flood/flash flooding. However, confidence is too low for a watch at this time given a relatively stronger steering flow. Will continue to monitor. The other area of concern is the MCS moving through Pennsylvania this evening. This line will most likely propagate southeast into western MD close to midnight, before moving through our area from northwest to southeast overnight. The propagation of this system to the southeast is offset from the steering flow, which is southwest to northeast as well as the potent shortwave that will be passing by to the north. Therefore, there is a chance that the outflow may outrun this activity, causing it to be relatively weaker. However, there is increasing CAPE and instability due to southerly winds ahead of this system, despite it not being a favorable time for convection. This increases the threat for severe storms. Given the setup, damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, especially near and north of Interstate 66 and US 50 into eastern WV, northern VA, and northern/western MD, where the forcing will be strongest. Isolated instances of flood/flash flooding are possible due to the heavy rain and increasing moisture ahead of this system. However, it should be progressive (causing any training storms to be localized in coverage). The low-level flow will be backed more to the southeast and perhaps a bit stronger, especially near/east of Interstate 95 in northeastern MD. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as this activity approaches toward Friday morning.

LWX CWA has two counties in the New STWatch issued by SPC just now SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 615 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-023-210700- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0528.230720T2215Z-230721T0700Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT $$