Chrisrotary12

Oh look. It's raining out again.

Guidance continuously reloading a Great Lakes trough through the end of the month. If that feature sticks through August & September, we'll get a real tropical system up here.

Nice synoptic event. Next.

After this past week if my lawn is brown at any point between now and Christmas I'm gonna be pissed. lol

I swear for every chipmunk I drown four more take its place.

Obligatory.....why isn't it January post? Not sure I believe that bucket.

Just had to run out and clean out the gutters clogged with all the tiny pine crap. Boy when it rains....its absolutely buckets like Dom said.

Deform band setting up in its typical spot I see.

Tiny cell just passed over and boy did it pour. 4 hours of that would be something tomorrow.

Just noticed home thermometer says 66F. Kinda cold.

Just watched loop of todays radar. The death of the line south of the pike as it approached the longitude of Rhode Island was impressive.

Almost lost count of the use of "hone in on" in this discussion. Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to 2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track, which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So, will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa as it moves through the region.

What an active stretch we are in. Storms yesterday. More today and tonight. Elsa Friday midday. 3km NAM fires up cells Friday PM.

Yeah...way too much cloud debris.

Very frustrated with my golf game at the moment. Last week I chipped and putted lights out but was awful off the tee. This week I was great off the tee, but awful around the greens.

Rate of grass growth definitely slowed down this week.

Oh I agree. I was just asking for 10 more degrees on Saturday to increase lapse rates.

It's too bad its not going to be 10 degrees warmer on Saturday.

Looks reasonably interesting at least.

5 minute downpour with 1 good rumble. Typical SNE convection.

Renting a house along the Ammonoosuc River with the family. Certainly, not an entire week dedicated to fishing, but hoping for a few solid periods where I plan to walk back and forth looking for a few fish.

Going to need NNE to win at some point before August. I would like there to actually be water in the river I plan to spend a week fishing. lol

Seems the CT River Valley was the initiation for todays storms,

Seems like today is going to be a day where you either get 0.00" or 2.50".

Car?