Chrisrotary12

One of these days I will put it all together and post a good score. Last night for the 9 hole league I keep substituting in...3 bad swings. Led to two doubles and a bogey. Posted +4. The other 6 holes I played 1 under. Two of those bad swings came on the tee shot on the par 3s. Quite frustrating.

Absolutely. The sun is shining red through the windows.

Rooting for the meteor honestly.

Worst summer ever rolls on. Had enough of this crap.

Just finished cutting the grass. Looked like I jumped in a swimming pool.

Worst summer ever continues. Fall here yet?

While in Oklahoma standing in an open field watching a supercell that was 20 miles away the anvil threw out a massive positive CG so close that we heard the air sizzle before the actual strike. Have heard that twice in my life.

It's getting to me. Yep.

Spending a week in the White Mountains in August. Looking for recommendations for golf courses. Thank you in advance.

Scheduled for Dec 24?

Ugly east wind for the next 48 hours. Lovely

Mushrooms gone wild this week.

Oh look. It's raining out again.

Guidance continuously reloading a Great Lakes trough through the end of the month. If that feature sticks through August & September, we'll get a real tropical system up here.

Nice synoptic event. Next.

After this past week if my lawn is brown at any point between now and Christmas I'm gonna be pissed. lol

I swear for every chipmunk I drown four more take its place.

Obligatory.....why isn't it January post? Not sure I believe that bucket.

Just had to run out and clean out the gutters clogged with all the tiny pine crap. Boy when it rains....its absolutely buckets like Dom said.

Deform band setting up in its typical spot I see.

Tiny cell just passed over and boy did it pour. 4 hours of that would be something tomorrow.

Just noticed home thermometer says 66F. Kinda cold.

Just watched loop of todays radar. The death of the line south of the pike as it approached the longitude of Rhode Island was impressive.

Almost lost count of the use of "hone in on" in this discussion. Confidence still highest in heavy rainfall with tropical downpours associated with Elsa as it moves through. PWAT values will get up to 2-2.25 inches, which is around the maximum for this time of year per SPC Sounding Climatology for CHH. Unsurprisingly, will have warm cloud layer depths between 3.5-4.5 km, so will have very efficient rainfall processes going on. Still some uncertainty on the track, which will delineate where the heaviest QPF is located and where the wind risk will be. Right now the greatest probabilities of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch are highest across the interior per the EPS/GEFS guidance, which falls in line with a more inland track as shown by the latest ECMWF. Will really need to hone in on this track for determining where the highest rainfall amounts are anticipated. This is somewhat in contrast to some of the latest deterministic guidance showing the highest swath from eastern CT/RI into eastern MA. So, will need to really hone in on the track to determine where the heaviest rain will fall and where there could potentially be a flood threat especially given the recent rains we`ve received. Went with the latest WPC guidance for QPF. Agree with the WPC latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. As stated in the previous section, will really need to hone in on the track of Elsa to determine not only the heavy rainfall risk, but also where the damaging wind risk will be highest. The latest ECWMF/NAM guidance are concerning given we have a 60-70+ kt southerly 925 hPa jet associated with Elsa crossing eastern portions of the CWA. Other pieces of deterministic guidance are a bit more muted with the strength of this jet, but have really just thrown out the GFS in the latest update as it appears to keep the core too far offshore, which is counter to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON/NAM and GEM guidance. Will need to watch this closely. Once again will refer folks to the official NHC page for the official track/timing of Elsa as it moves through the region.

What an active stretch we are in. Storms yesterday. More today and tonight. Elsa Friday midday. 3km NAM fires up cells Friday PM.