Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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Here's the number guesses instead of ranges. I haven't had a foot at my house since I bought it in 2006. Not expecting it this time either but it's nice to see.
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We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.
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I remember a few years ago we had a basically all sleet storm. It was kind of amazing in its own way. We had something absurd like 5" of sleet but the really crazy thing was the foot deep sleet drift on my back deck where it had rolled down the roof and piled up. I don't remember how long exactly but it took forever for it to melt. Feels like it may be time for another one of those. Also instead of snow cream we tried to make snow icees from the sleet. Do not recommend. Maybe get some fruit flavored syrup instead of vanilla/sugar/milk or something.
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Oh we're all going to be in here for this one I think!
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I have a feeling everyone who isn't in the mountains or Virginia is gonna end up here before we're done. As for us in the triad, I really don't like being a few miles from disaster on both the NAM and RGEM.
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Absolutely. As you know I'm sure, it can always sleet here. We've had mostly IP storms when the models never even hinted at mixing until in the short range.
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Looks like the RGEM is what, at least 75 miles north of any other guidance with the heaviest precipitation? Definitely an outlier, however given our history of NW trends as a storm approaches and the RGEM's reputation I certainly wouldn't completely discount it.
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Yeah 1.39 ZR = be prepared to not have power for a week. There's going to be an unlucky ice zone it seems, just hope it isn't that large and doesn't last that long.
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I'm also expecting our usual 6-8 with a little of everything mixed in. This doesn't feel like an all snow setup. Or even mostly snow.
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RAH with 8-12 for GSO and 1-2 for Raleigh...I guess that's about right for the last few years. You may have a much better city but at least we get the snow!
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Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events.
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Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction. I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains.
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We got like a dusting in the triad iirc. I'm pretty sure I went and did a trail run in it and it had all melted by the time I got out of the shower.
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Modeling was consistent for the most part and RAH went from 1-2 in the Triad to 10+ in, what, a day? Less than a day? Yeah that makes sense. Whatever, bring on the storm!
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I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.
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Sounds like a lot of pingers which I am definitely concerned about. Good for sledding I guess.
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I've heard a lot of people (mets) say that over the years. And then we mix.
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I'm not going to pretend to have a better feel for this than RAH does but I did find it kind of interesting that they opened saying it looked like a significant winter storm and then proceeded to forecast conditions that are very much not significant for the region.
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If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now.
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Yeah I need to get new sleds for my kids tomorrow so if she (and the other local mets) could be conservative until tomorrow evening that would be perfect.
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There isn't even an eyewall left at this point so I'd say definitely not.
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Upper level wind shear sending dry air into the southern half of the system.
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We spent days thinking this wouldn't be the usual east coast half a cane on approach and, umm, oops?
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What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past.
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You may see one at 11 if this is all recon finds.
