wncsnow

I have noticed this for the last day or 2. The Canadian shows something even more drastic with the PRE and hurricane combo.

I'm at .32 already today and along the Blue Ridge some places are closer to 1.5-2

Torrential rain on the drive home. It's not what you want to see with what's possibly coming.

I think the Euro is way too weak on intensity so that track could be really devastating. Verbatim it shows 8-12 inches on the escarpment and that would likely be underdone. Also shows gusts up to 45.

Euro

Euro also showing the predecessor rain event. This is all before the system makes landfall

GFS is pretty much the worse scenario for the southern Apps and Blue Ridge for significant flash flooding, only saving grace is how quickly it moves/dissipates . I'm also looking at some signs of a predecessor rain event somewhere in GA, TN, NC or Alabama. Models are hinting at this too.

There could also be a predecessor rain event somewhere near us

Still looking scary

That would be a substantial shift east of any current model output. The upper trough is going to influence the track more than anything in the EPAC.

I have a not so good feeling about this. Also, if we get some localized heavy rain beforehand with thunderstorms that will not help. Most models have an inch or more just from the front before the main show. The orientation of the flow between the possibly major hurricane and strong HP to the NE will really bring the goods to the upslose areas. If it tracks as currently depicted by most models, most places along the escarpment will have no problem reaching 10" rather quickly. River levels are still below average most places so that could be the saving grace. But then again this could turn out to be more of a flash flooding scenario where most of the heaviest rains falls in 24 hours or less. Fascinating week of weather coming up.

Still looks foreboding. Multiple rounds of heavy rain along the Blue Ridge. The hurricane and upper low behind it. Could get dicey

This would not be good for escarpment areas. 10-14 in favored areas

It was hot and humid today. We had .26 yesterday evening leaving today's high of 86 feeling like 90.

2.41 and just drizzle now. Definitely a big help for the drought

1.95 still coming down

Only .22 so far, dry air is winning. It's going to have to rain heavily tonight to get to the 2-3 inches thats forecasted.

Trend is our friend. Pretty much every model is 2+ for our entire area and some 4-6 in the escarpment.

Blocking high taketh away now blocking high giveth

Only .27 last night and a trace today. We need lots more!

Nice sunny day in Asheville. You are in the prime spot for upslope hopefully you will get another inch or 2.

Better enjoy the rain we got last night, looks like much of our area gets little to nothing now for the next week or more unless that low off the coast can get its act together and move our way.

Can't say I told you so but...

Yeah it looks like the moderate or strong Nina many were forecasting is not going to happen. Have to think it doesn't hurt our chances for wintry weather.

Short range models like the NAM and RDPS arent impressed