wncsnow

The inland flooding could be devastating with the PRE and Helene combo. Southern Appalachian areas could see as much impact as Florida with flash flooding, mud slides, and high winds in the higher elevations. Some areas along the Blue Ridge could easily see 12-16" of rain with orographic uplift with the SE flow

This is the AI euro model

Not good when an ensemble Mean is showing 7+ inches of rain across the area...

That upper low keeps shifting east moving the boundary with it. It makes sense for it to be over or near the Apps/Blue Ridge unfortunately

Precursor rain keeps moving east on models.

Bad thing is that's probably underdone too for upslope areas. I say 12-14" is likely unless the track changes drastically and the Precursor event totally misses us.

Early map from GSP

I don't see how we can escape major flooding this time. Probably the worst since 2004 with Frances and Ivan for the central and northern foothills and mountains

12Z ICON is another big hit

12Z ICON is about 15 mb lower than 6Z at landfall

UK is west of 12Z

I have noticed this for the last day or 2. The Canadian shows something even more drastic with the PRE and hurricane combo.

I'm at .32 already today and along the Blue Ridge some places are closer to 1.5-2

Torrential rain on the drive home. It's not what you want to see with what's possibly coming.

I think the Euro is way too weak on intensity so that track could be really devastating. Verbatim it shows 8-12 inches on the escarpment and that would likely be underdone. Also shows gusts up to 45.

Euro

Euro also showing the predecessor rain event. This is all before the system makes landfall

GFS is pretty much the worse scenario for the southern Apps and Blue Ridge for significant flash flooding, only saving grace is how quickly it moves/dissipates . I'm also looking at some signs of a predecessor rain event somewhere in GA, TN, NC or Alabama. Models are hinting at this too.

There could also be a predecessor rain event somewhere near us

Still looking scary

That would be a substantial shift east of any current model output. The upper trough is going to influence the track more than anything in the EPAC.

I have a not so good feeling about this. Also, if we get some localized heavy rain beforehand with thunderstorms that will not help. Most models have an inch or more just from the front before the main show. The orientation of the flow between the possibly major hurricane and strong HP to the NE will really bring the goods to the upslose areas. If it tracks as currently depicted by most models, most places along the escarpment will have no problem reaching 10" rather quickly. River levels are still below average most places so that could be the saving grace. But then again this could turn out to be more of a flash flooding scenario where most of the heaviest rains falls in 24 hours or less. Fascinating week of weather coming up.

Still looks foreboding. Multiple rounds of heavy rain along the Blue Ridge. The hurricane and upper low behind it. Could get dicey

This would not be good for escarpment areas. 10-14 in favored areas