wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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Thats what I figured. Thanks though, I may have to pony up and get a subscription.
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Where do you get ensemble numbers?
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Still impressive for western sections. Keep in mind much of this would be sleet/slop
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Indeed. Sure seems like our area has been ground zero for events the past 3 months though including Michael remnants and flooding to ice and record breaking rain.
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I think SW VA is starting to look like the best area for heavy accumulations but its still 5+ days out,
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Doubt it, my wife graduates Saturday from her Masters program so I will be here in SoVa.
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I think one thing to keep in mind is the timing of this. It needs to speed up a little to better coincide with the cold air/HP. If it keeps trending slower it could be just rain for about everyone.
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The mountains would get raked with heavy wet snow if Euro is right. Nice orographic uplift from SE flow too
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Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA.
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God lol
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lol the GFS strikes again.. The sooner this version of the model is replaced the better. It doesn't even get moisture to Northern NC, Southern VA
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Those strong modeled highs do favor a more southerly track if correct.
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It's gusting over 60 mph in a lot of places around Morehead City, Beaufort, Atlantoc Beach. I expect some hurricane force gusts soon.
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GFS continues to track the system further north inland in SC
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Center tracks from Darlington to just N of Columbia to Spartanburg to Hendersonville.
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Much higher rainfall totals for the triangle and triad this run. Over a foot in places
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It seems to be turning more west than south with each run and is now moving north of Florence, SC instead of southern SC
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Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift.
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Well I was wrong it went even further SW into Georgia..Has to be an all time anomalous track if it happens.
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Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78.
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This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..
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Yes it would be horrible BUT not as horrible as other model solutions..
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It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions. 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.
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GFS scenario is actually the best I have seen. It stalls the storm just far enough offshore to miss the worst effects of the eyewall and torrential rain. Still offshore by 120 but bearing down on Charleston as what would be a much weakened system.
