wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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We need packbacker
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This is the sanitarium so it makes me feel better to complain. I'm usually pretty positive but I am just super sick of all the rain. I could use some cold and dry. My area has been devastated from flooding this year.
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The pattern change looks like crap right now. Next 10 days have no real threat and after that we will basically be in February. This blockbuster winter is quickly going down the drain...
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The biggest threat in the next 10 days is flooding. GFS and Euro show over 4 inches for escarpment areas. Lots of SE flow ahead of the low pressures pumping in the moisture to an already saturated area.
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The operational models look meh at best in the long range. It sets the trough up too far west giving us mostly SE flow and rain while storms cut through the Ohio valley then somewhat colder behind them but nothing remarkable.. Some pattern change if it comes to fruition.
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The long range GFS and Euro for that matter seem to hint at a SE ridge popping up.. At least enough of one to keep the storm track into the Ohio valley.
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What an odd winter this has been so far.. A huge snowstorm in early December.. but almost no true arctic air to speak of.. I dont think it has got into the teens even here in Southside VA... Grass is turning green past few days and trees and flowers are showing signs of budding out.
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NAM
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Yea breeze is picking up a bit in Danville. I like the spot we are in with the northern trends. Big frosty jackpot again?
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RGEM.. not finished
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SREF mean is almost 12 inches here. All but 5 members show 10 to 20 inches. All above 6
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12Z NAM is still crusher of dreams for southern fringes.. Lots of IP/ZR
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not finished
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Euro is a big hit and does expand precip North some. Timing is a bit faster
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And dsaur
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What ever happened to packbacker?
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The GFS is about 75 to 100 miles further south with precip shield and has lower qpf than any model
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The RGEM is pure model porn for southern VA back to Northern NC to Boone. 18 inch plus totals everywhere
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It can happen.. Sleet is going to be a major issue for you as you know all to well.
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Wow.
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This run is going to destroy Boone to Martinsville VA. Marion NC already over 15 inches at 39
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The Nam is pretty warm at 33.. Still rain for CLT Switches to sleet/snow at 36
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The HRRR is terrible outside 12 hrs or so in my experience and has a warm bias. Most of that east of the mtns will switch in the next frame or 3
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Little over 3
