wncsnow

I hope he is not a member... https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/veteran-noaa-meteorologist-accused-of-licking-sucking-smelling-teenage-boys-toes

Yea lately they have been more bark than bite but models have been doing a pretty good job with intensifcation with this one, especially the HWRF and EURO. Both models have has sub 940 mb storms for multiple runs here and there the past few days and that seems likely now.

Still feeling ok?

Euro says ehhh not so fast my friend.. Sure it gets cooler after Michael moves through but the next legit push of cold air hangs back in the plains and the ridge is still in control as of day 8..

New Euro is much farther west .

Yea but you have to admit the flooding wasn't nearly as bad as what happened back in May and years past. 2004 is the modern day litmus test for the region but one day a 1916 will happen again.

Catawba didn't reach flood stage but Yancey county had some decent flooding. Overall, Western NC lucked out on this one

The Dan River here in Danville is going to push its record high at this gauge. Keep in mind this gauge has only been in place for about 25 years so it didn't get the floods of the 1970's. We have had about 4.5 inches of rain here but upstream got anywhere between 7 and 10. South Boston, VA will get it really bad with flooding and a lot of downtown will be underwater by tomorrow.

I think the convection down east is robbing a lot of the moisture transport for ya'll. Robert mentioned it as well. Most models dont have any crazy totals. General 4 to 6 inches, up to 8 in favored areas.

Thin band keeps training over Danville with heavy rain. Over an inch now storm total. Some places have had 2 inches the past hour to the southeast of here.

It's gusting over 60 mph in a lot of places around Morehead City, Beaufort, Atlantoc Beach. I expect some hurricane force gusts soon.

GFS continues to track the system further north inland in SC

Center tracks from Darlington to just N of Columbia to Spartanburg to Hendersonville.

Much higher rainfall totals for the triangle and triad this run. Over a foot in places

It seems to be turning more west than south with each run and is now moving north of Florence, SC instead of southern SC

Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift.

It does appear to stay a little better organized since it is further offshore this run in the gulf stream.. Pressure stays in lower 970s

This run is definitely further offshore at 96 its at least 75 miles SE of CHS

Well I was wrong it went even further SW into Georgia..Has to be an all time anomalous track if it happens.

Don't think this run will take it as far to the SW still spinning on same spot off Jacksonville NC at 78.

I think with all of the big event cancellations ranging from races, festivals, school closings and college football games, people are expecting something major in the piedmont of NC and VA. If current trends hold, a lot of people will be angry and in my opinion it will be a blow to meteorology in general because so many people believe the science behind it is little more than a government conspiracy.. I have already seen respectable mets such as Brad Panovich getting ripped on social media due to the track changes.. and it's going to get worse..

This run would be bad for Blue Ridge areas for flooding after it finally decides to come inland. I am growing more concerned for that area with each model run..

Yes it would be horrible BUT not as horrible as other model solutions..

It wont intensify much if any due to upwelling and it is still the best run I have seen for NC coasts compared to EURO and other solutions. 11 inches of rain compared to 35 on the EURO.