That plot looks pretty similar to the march forecast from September
https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/north-america/anomaly-geopot-500hpa/20190301-0000z.html
No I'm just starting there are valid reasons to find fault with any supposed analog year. Theres always going to be differences. You can throw out 94-95 and the neither thr 500mb height anomalies nor the surface temperature anomalies change much. I feel pretty confident on a DJFM positive NAO in the means...we've been in a 6 year impressive cycle with that as the CPC graph shows above. The main reason I didn't use the 60s and 70s is being I don't think there will be negative nao like then. I didnt go looking for an argument. I'm not any sort of long range expert. I'm just posting my thoughts, if you don't like them then so be it.
I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo.
You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos.
I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark.
I'm going 90-91, 94-95, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, 14-15 for my winter analogs. I don't like anything with negative Naos in the means. Even so, there's a fairly large amount of variation across the data set from winter to winter.
-Nick
Any thoughts on the NAO? Its been so positive lately basically going back to 2011. The Atlantic SST distribution supports positive in the winter and the Strat temps are very cold from 1 to 10mb.
El Nino and low solar support negative.
Storm is very NE quad heavy. Flight level winds are barely hitting 100kts in the other quads. Not true surprising with solid forward motion currently. Looks pretty steady-state despite the improved appearance form last night.
I wonder if the NHC will start to acknowledge the less than ideal environment. This storm is undergoing effects beyond the Erc. Im no expert but i l think it's been clear on satellite for much of the day.