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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. You are literally making up conspiracy based on bullshit. Dont try to justify it to me. Both the news station making up track guidance to fearmonger and the nhc nudging intensity are completely fact free crap that you use to wow us with your psychobabble.
  2. I mean that literally lol. With the feet sticking out toward NC. Or a fetus perhaps.
  3. It looks like a rodent.
  4. Can you shut the **** up?
  5. This was last year's track model verification for those curious. Gfs outperformed the euro at most lead times.
  6. The stations are running their graphics from official sources.
  7. It's the nhc track. Come on.
  8. Pressure has been falling a bit this morning. Some conflicting data from the dropsondes but maybe somewhere below 990mb now.
  9. Just looking at the ships products I think the window to strengthen closes near or just before 06z tonight. Conditions are solid between now and then...its more about the storm at this point than the environment.
  10. new ukmet tracks from Eastern LI into NY/CT/MA border area.
  11. I thought that shear vector was still out of the north at the moment but either way.
  12. Tough look for intensification...broad center with a large RMW. Need some VHTs to develop downshear of the center.
  13. You can use your eyeballs on the vis there lol. But microwave would show it also.
  14. Yeah Irene was very impressive. Lost trees and got several inches of rain in Blackstone. It looks very tilted right now albeit organized.
  15. It really needs to take off between now and tomorrow to become a real wind event. If it made to a 3 before weakening it would make a huge difference.
  16. UKMET hooks into Long Island and is near Newburg at 72 h.
  17. Thanks. I didn't realize that it was that cold there at the moment. The upwelling part makes sense. It doesn't show up very well on the broader SST charts.
  18. Yeah i know that spot is generally cold, but 11C? The Grand Banks is 16 right now lol.
  19. What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me?
  20. Yeah I guess I was just saying that it's independent. It's based on average track error at the lead time. it's not model spread or confidence dependent.
  21. Definitely has a good chance to take off tomorrow, but the shear has titled the vortex and the outflow is restricted to the north for now. Objective guidance has been running around T3.5, which supports strong TS, not hurricane.
  22. Cone is always the same size at the various lead times.
  23. I believe SSD is done at least somewhat manually while Wisconsin is computer generated.
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