Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Storm total here in Bethlehem Twp. is 5.3”
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Now up to 4” new in Bethlehem Twp. 30/29
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Measured 2” new in Bethlehem Twp. 30/29z
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1” new. 30/29. Moderate snow.
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Moderate snow - Visibility 1/2 mile. 32/31
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They’re in a tough spot as the models have been all over the place. They use the NBM which is a weighted model containing most all of the other models outputs ( It’s like a mean of the other model projections). Because of how it works there is a delay in terms of it not recognizing the newest data. Incidentally your number seems reasonable to me.
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I’m observing that as well. My temp has also dropped to 35.
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I’m trying to that with that heavier band near Trenton that is struggling to move NW. Not working out too good.
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Same here.
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You’re in a better place. Enjoy!
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Light rain 36/33
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12z HRRR concurs with the Delaware River cutoff for the big snows.
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Steady light snow. Visibility 3 miles. 33/31
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It’s an interesting forecast where I am near the Delaware River with only the short term Mesos calling for big snows here (12-18”) whereas the globals and some mesos are calling for 8-12”. The IVT will be the key out here for me and other NW areas. The cutoff will be right through my general area I believe.
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Regarding the output from the RDPS, it’s similar to the run at 12z. This is the CMC ensemble run from 12z. If someone can explain the difference between these I would be interested to know.
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Orographic lift
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I own one on Fire Island.
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This might be part of the answer. Check out this 850 mb jet.
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I personally experienced winds of this force in February 1983 on the north shore of Suffolk Cty. and had good equipment to measure it. It has happened before and can happen again.
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3K NAM has 9 hours of wind gusts to at least 55 MPH at Farmingdale.
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Make sure your generators are ready to go. Farmingdale is progged to have wind gusts of at least 59 mph for 9 hours.
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There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye.
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Feb 1983 - Measured many hours of snow accompanied by wind gusts to 50 - 65 mph. Location- East Northport. Equipment- Downeaster Models are forecasting similar winds on LI. I have a Davis Vantage Vue on Fire Island and will be watching the reports there with great interest.
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The difference is this event will have an IVT. Boxing Day did not.
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Mt. Holly will need to issue Blizzard warnings for the Jersey coast and adjacent areas and should do so ASAP.
