Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Have to careful with some of the real end outcomes coming out in the models. GDPS is calling for 30”+ for my area. In 2021 it did something similar (RDPS) only it called for 50” so there is an history with that model. Actual storm amounts ranged from 24-36” where I am.
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Early Monday morning 2/16 last minute event OBS/Discussion
Tatamy replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Storm total 2” on all surfaces.
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Been getting steady light to at times moderate snow here. 1.3” new OTG. 31/30
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Steady very light snow. 36/28. Expecting about an inch here.
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Do you know how to read and interpret a computer model?
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Here are the 06z and 12z runs of the EPS-AI.
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I am posting the 12z ensemble guidance below from the EPS, CMCE, and EPS AIFS. The EPS AIFS has actually been quite consistent with its precip field in recent runs.
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Places north and west could do okay however it’s borderline near the coast. Interesting run.
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06z Euro - the coast rains
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That visibility there is 1/4 to 3/8 mile so this is moderate to heavy snow that has been falling there for most of the afternoon.
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I am surprised that there is not ice on LI Sound. Last time that I saw that was February 1979 during the week prior to PD1.
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I experienced the storm in East Northport. The things that I remember about it are the consistently low visibility that lasted through out that day. It averaged between 1/8 to 1/4 mile sometimes less all day. The flakes were quite small probably because of the strong winds whipping in off LI Sound. I measured 30” in that storm. I didn’t see a storm like that again until 2016 when I also measured 30” where I am in Bethlehem, PA.
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My money is on Blutarsky.
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79 was 8-12” in the Metro with more to the south and west. No changeover. That was the last time that I know of when LI Sound partially froze over.
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Strongly agree. The AI models have done exceptionally well over the past few days consistently showing the OTS solution.
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This is definitely one for the coastal people. Plenty of snow on the ground here too. I hope it does come together for those to the S and E.
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I am in Bethlehem, PA. I have enough snow lol. You guys on the coast can have this one.
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I think just 50 miles will do a lot of good for people on the coast.
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18z EPS mean
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18z GEFS mean
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Icon EPS mean 18z
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The 06z Euro OP is OTS.
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06z EPS is east of previous runs
