powderfreak

That is pretty crazy.

Yeah seemed weak even when they issued it but decided to go down with the ship entirely, ha. Guess it’s not a great look to cancel it then even risk getting one pixel of a town blown out in heavy rain… but models have t had much outside of one or two HRRR runs 36 hours out.

A little over zealous from what happened up north and the multiple flash floods around last summer? I feel like the NWS offices are more aware of the rains the past couple summers when high PWATS and dews are around.

Should’ve started a thread last night and feel bad spamming the thread with random social media damage shots. But it’s crazy what these short-term flash flood events can do.

I’m not willing to jump on that train but given that it’s just easier for the atmosphere to get warmer than it is colder right now… seems possible.

Ok fair enough. Just drops down to normal I guess, which is a relief from the torch. Just wild to me how far our goalposts have moved these summers. We used to look for “relief” from those nights in the 60s. Now it’s like oh, thank god we might touch the normal min for a couple nights.

I mean I’m not even talking about Synoptics or even anyone on here… just that local METS are now forced to pimp “relief” as mid-60s lows. Normal mins right now are 64F at BDL and 62F at ORH. This new climate regime makes something approaching “normal” summer weather feel like it's some cool crisp Canadian airmass. ”Look at those lows in the 60s!!”

It’s tough when we are celebrating lows in the mid-60s, to be honest.

River is still high and muddy but here’s a comparison pic from our lawn from last night to today. It’s about 10-12 feet lower than it was at 11pm last night.

Make it stop.

It’s crazy I lived here for so many years without really thinking of flash flooding… but now these events are like almost becoming normal. The Winooski River at Waterbury has had 3 of its top 4 crests in the last calendar year. That’s insane. Irene still is the top mark though.

Bolton Valley access road to the ski area… yikes.

We had over 2” in 41 minutes after like 1.5” already. Thats when shit really hit the fan. Every culvert and stream just explodes from the force multiplier of the mountains. If we keep chucking record dews and PWATS into the mtns, it won’t change.

Just every town up here waking up to a big bag of WTF.

I mean, this state is starting to spend so much money putting roads back together every summer… that if this stuff is going to keep on happening, might need to rethink some of this. The amount of road closures in VT is insane this morning. The 1-year anniversary of the 500-year flood .

This is real bad. Most of this area is destroyed through C/N VT. The ski area is cut off from town. Stowe town closures… VT-ALERT: Mountain Road (VT108) at Top Notch Resort; Moscow Rd at Barrows Rd; Nebraska Valley Rd; Nebraska Valley Rd beyond the Town Gravel Pit; Percy Hill Rd in area of 215 Percy Hill; Gold Brook Rd from Gold Brook Circle to Stowe Hollow Rd.; Dewey Hill Rd closed from Gold Brook Rd to Ayers Farm; North Hollow Rd above Bryan Rd; West Hill Rd (between Mayo Farm Road and VT100); Moscow Rd closed from Rt 100 to River Rd; and Bouchard Rd are closed in Stowe due to floodwaters. Anticipated reopen time is unknown. Please contact Stowe Emergency Operations Center at 802-585-1882 for more information.

I’m in full weenie mode. It’s sinking in that these high water events will continue to become almost expected or “normal” if dew points continue to surge. I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it… you cannot run these moisture levels (dew points and PWATS) into the mountains and expect a different outcome than strong flash flooding. These events are too frequent. Many of us in Stowe along the river are not sleeping. Friends have water against their deck, we have water on the lawn.

Bolton Valley to Richmond area seemed to be in a dire situation on the west slope through the I-89 corridor. 3-6” of rain in tilted terrain over a 3-4 hour period?… after 7-10” in the month of June and 15-20” since April 1st. Every waterway is exploding right now.

River is onto the lawn. Had to go check it out as this is the perfect storm for high flash water. I’ve never seen it up this high. That’s not hyperbole. We have another 12-18” of subtle rise to go before it’s an issue for us, so I think we’ll be fine. But there is a RETAINING wall just past the bushes down to the river channel. This is up like 12 feet and it’s still pouring rain. The photo doesn’t show the energy. Whole trees floated by, but couldn’t get one in a photo. The middle of this is a good 15 feet of swift water on a normal knee to thigh deep maximum. Over 4” now. I know many people are completely f*cked if the water level is this high on the knoll.

The global models missed this event. They all had the stripe of heaviest rain well north, into Quebec. The EURO and GFS were so far north with their axis of heavy rain, even on the recent runs. The CAMs (convection allowing models) seemed much more accurate.

Crazy how localized it can be. About a mile SE of here in the Lower Village (Cocorahs observer) has had an inch less. It’s all 2-3”+ but sharp local boundary so far with a mile or two away seeing 1”+ differences.

Now 3.54” just 13 minutes later. Over 2” in 41 minutes. Rates of up to 4.25”/hr during that time. Flash flooding is occurring with driveway washouts. River is just starting to rage.

We are playing catch up. This has been training over us for a bit now. Fast increase of 1.50”+ to go from 1” to 2.5”+ and it’s just absolutely pouring.

2.57” ten minutes later.

Now have been cranking 3.50”/hr rates the past 15 minutes and quickly over 2” with just torrential rain.