powderfreak

This is bonkers. Yard is an instant lake. 4”/hr and a very fast inch so far. Dog is so freaked out by the constant thunder she won’t eat dinner and is under the bed. Thinks the world is ending.

Going to feel nice. Tuesday Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Wednesday Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Wednesday Night And Thursday Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.

73/70 at 11:30pm in a NNE valley bottom location of 750ft. Tropical evenings continue. Identical readings at MVL and MPV. Widespread, thick, humid air rules the low-levels. Is BOS really 81F closing in on midnight? HFD at 73/72.

18z GFS just ended Vermont late next week. Pack up the wagons, time to abandon most settlements along any waterway after that.

18z GFS is going to finish Vermont off.

That would be a problem.

86/72 at 12:15pm up here. Make it stop .

Ha we all used to argue about 59F vs 62F being considered a humid day or a dry one. Now it’s just like 65+ for weeks on end.

Lake Champlain bath water...

It has been impressive, this stretch of dews. Tropical evenings. The bugs up here are insane. Tons of rain and a lot of warm nights, these things are thriving. Turn a flood light on outside and it looks like it’s snowing from the insects.

Ah gotcha. Fair trade Maui for Cape Cod, ha. I’d punt an entire week of beach weather on the Cape to be there for a solution like that 18z GFS.

Are you on the Cape next week?

Get the Swiss Miss ready?

It’s still 84F at BOS, 83F at BDL and 78F at ORH… late night. 84F at BOS on the water after 10pm is just straight tropical. BDL same vibe. Even at 1,000ft it’s Key West. Also interesting that the hottest evening readings are at the three major SNE climo spots.

True, given the general state of the climate, if this corrects one way, the money is on it going warmer.

Ha fair enough, wasn’t sure you saw some prog that was noticeably warmer. No one thinks summer is over but you’re going to be in the 70s for a couple/few days there at elevation. Maybe you can hold onto dews near 60F to hug above the lawn and under the forest canopy, but you’ll be well into the 70s for highs at 1,000ft. Maybe a couple 74/59 days?

What about ECMWF generated products? What model do you want to use?

Has been a while since seeing days and days of low to mid 70s for maxes. Monday Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Monday Night Through Wednesday Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Wednesday Night And Thursday Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.

I do love that if it’s not heat advisory levels you jump right to hot chocolate . Like there’s no middle ground. 88/72 at MVL. Steam bath.

62 degrees inside and can’t see in/out a single window or glass door, ha. Feels like the dew point is like in the 30s inside. Love the mini-split dehumidifier option here in the mountains of South Florida. A healthy inch of rainfall here today along the Stowe CC and river. So much low level moisture right now. Warm and saturated.

Piermont, NH with 4.14” in 3 hours from a mesonet station? Thats not too shabby.

Closing in on an inch today… rain rate of 2.48”/hr right now.

A tropical storm would be “Shut ‘em down” for the state. Thanks for playing, time to load up the wagons and head elsewhere.

From WPC: The CAMs are in good agreement that convection will expand, although the exact placement of what will be primarily scattered cells or multi-cells through 20-25 kts of bulk shear is uncertain. This is reflected by modest 1"/6hrs EAS probabilities, but high(>80%) and moderate(>30%) neighborhood probabilities for 1" and 3", respectively, in 6 hours. There is high confidence that convection will expand as thermodynamic advection continues from the south pushing PWs to broadly over 2" and SBCAPE to nearly 2000 J/kg in much of New England and Upstate NY. These cells will generally lift northward progressively on 0-6km mean winds of 15-20 kts, but the widespread coverage should result in multiple rounds in many areas. Additionally, nearly unidirectional flow noted in morning soundings suggests brief training is possible along narrow N-S corridors. Rain rates will likely reach 1-2"/hr in most of these cells, and the HRRR 15-min accumulation product suggests locally 0.75"+ of rain is possible this evening which indicates brief intense rates to 3"/hr are possible. These axes of enhanced training are where the heaviest rainfall is expected, and this is most likely from far eastern Upstate NY into much of VT where 2-3" of rain is possible. FFG across the region has been compromised from recent heavy rainfall, and there are some local minimums of less than 1.5"/3hrs in the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. This area is generally sensitive anyway due the terrain features supporting rapid runoff when rates become intense, but the antecedent rain has made the area even more vulnerable.

This stuff is pure tropical small droplet rains. 1”/hr rates out of mundane radar echoes. Almost 0.40” on the day now.