powderfreak

Maybe it’s supply, but I do subscribe to some of what Kevin talks about... history would say parts of that ridge make it to us at some point. Maybe they are brief interludes before getting beaten back west again, but my money would be on it getting here at some point. Any time those lower heights in the Maritimes weaken, that ridge will try to roll in here...maybe over the top? But I find it hard to believe those lower heights fight off that ridge all summer.

You may be right, I just looked at our climo normals and the crazy few days of 85-95F heat skewed my mind as to what is climo right now. Our average max temp is only 70F... I was thinking it was upper 70s already lol...turns out lower 70s is above normal for first week of June.

Dusting of white in the high terrain from a friend.

Throw in a rock slide for good measure up the road as it goes through Smugglers Notch. Sounds like several very large boulders came down out of no where.

We are up to 51F down here in the valley with partial sunshine. More radar echoes crossing the Champlain Valley, probably a few more -SHSN for the higher terrain.

Getting several reports of Light Snow Showers from hikers on Mansfield. Station has been showing 32-33F up there. From an all-time record high of 85F down to freezing this morning with snow showers. Crazy stuff.

6-10 day EPS average departures at 850... that ridge in the Midwest isn’t going anywhere so Kev is going to get his heat at some point. Might be like in the winter when a pattern change is delayed by a week but not denied. At some point that thing will probably roll into us.

To be fair, everyone is just trolling you because the models don’t show what you say. The closer we get though it may seem more like throwing darts at dates on a calendar and then not budging when new data comes to light. It does bring a fun little competition vibe between KFS and the models though, ha.

21F on MWN after they hit the highest May temp of 66F last week. Rollercoaster.

11am temps... Most of the Adirondacks are struggling in low 40s lol.

49/33 up here with partly sunny skis. Chilly!

Get June off on the right foot? Sunday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I did get a chuckle out of the 18z GFS. It just laughed at DIT. Heat wave begins on the 8th here... Lasts for a couple days...June 10th. Then settles in for a real hot stretch for mid-June onward.

While thinking outside the box is generally good, I just don’t get the “put away the models” phrase. It comes off as this “Dorothy tap your shoes together three times and you’ll get the weather you desire” mentality. Weather models are what we do as a forum.

Hopefully Bob and Doug have a good time.

Kev, you’d definitely sneak a real hot one in around 6th or 7th on this look: But then a day or two later it gets beaten back to the west again. Now, if those lower heights off the coast aren’t as bullish, yeah it probably furnaces for 3-5 days, so start wishing for that to go away. I’m not calling for one or the other, just we may be on the gradient rather than in it. But if it’s further NE then it bakes.

I don’t think we are looking at the same models then, ha. Like I said, slam dunk further west as the ridge is a pig, but it just doesn’t ever really get here. I’ll try to .gif one of these up for you.

Gonna be close. GFS/ECM/GGEM Ensembles don’t seem as confident as you. They definitely torch to our west but run into some serious resistance NE of Philly/NYC. I bet you’d sneak a real hot day in CT around the 7th or so with that look but then it just gets crushed back SW by the 9th/10th. Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley looks toasty.

GEFS just keep fighting off any heat with the lower heights over the Maritimes. It gets a piece in around June 7-9 but then gets beaten down again from the 10th onward. Our own little island of Business Suites. Makes me think of Tip musing about us being in our own world while a lot of the US bakes.

Yeah I’m enjoying the variety. That was a nice stretch of high heat for sure. Now we chill off for a couple days. It’ll be back. Big fan of highly changing weather, right down to my diurnal range fetish.

57F at 10:35am... yesterday it was 81F at the same time. Big breath of fresh air being in the 50s instead of 80s.

Not much wind except a little gust front at the beginning, but it was a legit TS with frequent lightning. Moving too fast to drop a lot of rain it seems (those 1"+ amounts), though any random spot can sometime get lit up in humid convection. PWATS several standard deviations above normal for late-May, giving a widespread 0.3-0.6" in a very short period of time despite the speed.

I'm not exactly stoked on that look, but looping out the model runs towards mid-June has that over-the-top look again that we just saw. There's heat there in SNE end of the first week but then it seems to break but build again over the top. Maybe this is the summer Montreal bakes. EPS has that look though as there's a persistent weakness east of New England... can envision a scenario where if those lower heights are stable off the New England coast, that pieces of the midwest and Great Lakes ridge fold over top up into Ontario and Quebec.

Finishes on the 9th? You wonder if this is a summer where we bake further NW and especially Canada. The last few GFS runs have been signaling sustained big departures over Canada in the means, but more transient in SNE.

Some incredibly impressive lightning. Several bolts seen going straight to the ground on the horizon with some real house shakers. Short duration rain was impressive even if the totals aren’t... but a good soaking of a 1/3rd of an inch so far.