powderfreak

51F at the office and 42F at the picnic tables. Its been warmer on some Christmas Eve’s recently.

Good point on the higher diurnal range being drier and a different vibe.

I jumped the gun there for you, but it’s coming. Open ‘em up and air it out later tonight. I may be going a bit wild , but it’s nice to see the atmosphere can do something other than humid/warm again as the seasonal change fires one across the bow. Don’t like the waning sunlight though.

That's fukking wild. It does dip below normal a few times, but just by a couple/few degrees. Getting -5 on the low is once a month... while then on the positive side it goes back up to +10 to +15 at least excuse possible. It's not like the highs haven't been above normal either, but August maxes have had those below normal rainy days. The overnight temperatures are driving the bus here. Top graph led to a +5 type month and bottom is +3 so far.

If the temperature during this stretch dips below 47F, it'll be the coolest reading in two months here. It still blows my mind that our mid-summer normal minimum temperature is in the low-50s and it has gotten below 50F exactly twice (49F and 47) since JUNE! Like only twice in 7 weeks has the low temperature gotten 5 degrees below normal.

Taste it.

See I think doing the exact same thing we have for the past two months is boring AF. The high excitement and adrenaline rush of 82/66 has worn off.

Nice change of pace, right?

Into the 50s by 7pm. What planet is this?

I just go by the mean temperatures as that’s the gold standard metric for temps and how it affects the natural environment. If the average temperature is 5 degrees above the new warm baseline, the natural environment is torching… how it affects growing seasons, habitats, etc. Don’t care how it gets there necessarily. And I mean we joke about nighttime mins… but no one had A/C here 15 years ago. Literally no one. It gets down to 52F on average like the min says, everyone is fine windows open. We now sit like 60-65F+ at night and everyone has A/C. The torch has impacts.

I feel like I relate to you every time you post something about the CON mins back in the day, lol. Like looking at an AVERAGE min of 53F would make one believe half the nights should be below that. Yesterday was a great example of how we are torching and getting these departures. Average is 77/53. Actual was 70/65. Most locations graded below normal yesterday. But we were +3 in the means. -7 max and +12 min. Prime example of how our monthly departures are so high, even when it’s “cool” it’s warm. MVL…

It is all dew driven here. If dews are elevated, it’s impossible for us to not be above normal.

MVL ASOS. Montpelier… +2.7 St Johnsbury… +3.0 Mountain valley sites are torched.

We are getting destroyed on overnight mins in the radiational spots up here. Average summer lows of like 52-54F just getting torched. If dews aren’t in the 50s, we are going to put up big departures. BTV is +1.6 without radiational cooling baked in.

+3.1 here.

Every single time it rains now, lol. The latest WPC Heavy Rain disco… always “above the 90th percentile” and “flash flooding possible”. Areas affected...eastern Upstate New York, western New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 191637Z - 192230Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across Upstate New York and western New England this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Short term training of 1-2+"/hr rates will create corridors of 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. This could produce flash flooding. <snip> Some of this TCu is starting to exhibit glaciation as noted in the GOES-E day cloud phase RGB, resulting in a steady expansion of lightning cast probabilities above 25%. The 12Z U/A soundings from KALB and KOKX both measured PWs above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology, with elevated freezing levels supporting efficient warm-rain processes. Into these impressive thermodynamics, forcing for ascent is slowly intensifying through convergence ahead of the cold front, increasing upper diffluence, and height falls downstream of the parent longwave trough and accompanying shortwave impulse.

It’s staggering how many scenes like this we’ve seen as a region the past couple warm seasons.

Thats what we’ve been saying up in VT too… can’t keep pumping climo max PWATS into the mountains and not expect the occasional devastating flash flood event.

It’s going to keep happening too. As long as high PWAT humid air continues to funnel into the NE with higher regularity. A frontal boundary causing stalled convergence is all that is needed in high moisture-rich environments. Getting 6-8”+ in county zones, with acute waterboarding footprints… this is certainly within the realm of possibilities. The margin for error increases rapidly the higher the moisture levels.

We saw it here… flooding washes so much stuff out into the waterways. Oil, gas, septic, trash. Flood waters are gnarly when they impact highly inhabited places.

I know plenty of people make very poor driving decisions, and this is likely that... but I bet that water came up really fast. Not 10 seconds but sometimes something that seems small can get out of hand in a hurry. Especially if on a road and getting pinched, you might risk going before it gets worse... and I bet this escalated real fast at some point. Hit the tipping point and all hell breaks lose with water.

I was thinking about that one too as another high end localized water dump.

Yeah we saw it a couple weeks ago… no model had 8+” falling in Saint Johnsbury and NEK in 4 hours. The footprint size on that event looks very similar to this one. A county, maybe county and a half? I mean I’d be super impressed if the models started nailing these. Good luck with that though.

It’s just such a small footprint in the grand scheme of things from a modeling standpoint. There were signs there but if you were looking for the GFS and EURO to put a 5-10 spot over one county, not happening. Hopefully someone can pull a foot.

I mean, it’s an extreme mesoscale event about the size of a county. Thats asking a lot from models on that scale. If the entire state of CT was getting 5-10”, yeah that’s a problem… we’ve seen a lot of these small footprint uber-extreme rainfall events the past few years. This one is just hitting a very highly populated area too.