powderfreak

MVL has been bouncing between 36F and 45F the past couple hours. Calm vs mixing. We could get to the normal 28F low (average min at both MVL and MPV), especially if it goes calm. Yesterday’s daily departures were incredible. A true +25 at Montpelier and +26 at Morrisville-Stowe. These sharp cold fronts get us back to normal.

Most of the interstates are closed. The photos look like not a place you want to be stuck… just miles of white nothingness. WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph, creating near blizzard conditions and snow drifts in excess of 8 feet.

Crushed.

The 84F in “Hartford Area” was BDL. HFD only hit 80F. If you go here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box And click on “Hartford Area” it gives you the BDL data.

These November moths flying around, trying to get inside… Two long stretches above 60 degrees up here in northern VT. Granted it’s only 750ft, but still statistically incredible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front is gradually progressing southward across the region tonight. While there is a noticeable wind shift behind it, there is not a sharp temperature gradient so temperatures are only falling slowly behind it. There were previously a few showers along this front but these have dissipated, so now it is passing through dry. Model guidance is suggesting a few showers could redevelop along it later tonight but any rain would be light and brief. It is not even cold enough for the highest peaks to see any chance of snow showers.

Yeah… claiming you are affected by drought because your lawn (that’s not actually used for anything) isn’t neon green… yawn. Let us know when you go to turn your faucet on and nothing happens. That’s when you have an actual problem. Brush fire burning down a barn? That qualifies too.

The opposite side of today’s departures here would be like a low of -5F and a high of like 25F.

Today is a mind f*ck…. walking the dog now by headlamp because it’s dark at 5pm, in shorts and T-shirt like it’s summer, with a tropical southerly breeze… it’s quite the vibe. This must be what Christmas in Florida feels like.

Almost turned on the A/C in November, lol.

70F this morning off a low of 65F. Normal high is 48F, low 29F.

It’s like hurry up and wait, haha. Stressful to get everything prepped and ready to go… only to then sit and watch the weather for 2-3 weeks.

Very thankful my salary isn’t based on eastern winter weather lol. The good news is that November overall is such a small minor number of a ski season’s financial outlook that it doesn’t move the needle. The Holiday Week and Presidents Week can be like 50% of an entire season’s business. Those are the big ones and Grinch loves to crash it.

70F here.

That’s not psycho babble bargaining in my thought process. Statistically, the long term pattern looks highly unfavorable. Everything is currently stacked against a solid cold precip event in New England. But if I’m a forecaster, I’m leaving open the chance of sneaking in an impactful winter weather event in this NNE climate despite the highly unfavorable background weeks 3-6. Its an afterthought, but sometimes one sneaks in during the low solar time of year. The most likely scenario is the mean outlook though.

There were some sleet pellets at the onset here with temps in the upper 30s. It was cold at summit level, then warm above that.

Radar looks like more bark than bite. Returns look healthy for like 0.02”/hr rates lol.

Hopefully it’ll offset the pain of this…

“Surface maximum temperature.” I think it’s the max reached in the previous 6 hours.

LFG on that.

The irony is the one saying no frosts until Xmas is the same one who 5-10 years ago used to see 0.10-0.25" QPF as snow and call for 4-8" to start, maybe more. The late frost/freeze stuff is largely because that poster might literally be the last place in New England to see a frost or freeze.

The ensemble means don’t look ideal, it is what it is. That doesn’t mean it won’t snow or get cold. The same goes for great looking patterns, that doesn’t mean it will snow. Hopefully that’s a baseline understanding for most on here.

Theres like two themes going on… Wolfie seems to be reading these like it’s never going to snow at all this winter. “Pattern looks unfavorable.” ”It will snow at some point between now and April.”

Hit 22F at 1am and is up to 34F now with cloud over.

You stay mixed or mix out with the best of them, I'm low key fascinated by how hard it is for your spot to decouple at all. Just free air up there that never goes truly calm. Warm front will lift through and 850mb winds go SW tonight... perfect set-up for a strong inversion and cold air pooling in the valleys, on its way out of the region as the air mass gets pushed NE. On it's way out aloft, but leaving behind some residual cold pockets at the surface. Here's 850mb as everyone down low falls to freezing or below.

It's only a chilly night these days if the peppers suffer on a hilltop in CT. 28F here, and forecast calls for 20F tonight, but increasing high/mid level clouds could stifle it up here. I keep thinking these nights are chilly, but I saw an 8F back in 2020 with 7-10" of snow on the ground even down here in the valley on 11/2-3/2020. I do not remember that early shot of winter, ha.