powderfreak

Has been a while since seeing days and days of low to mid 70s for maxes. Monday Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Monday Night Through Wednesday Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Wednesday Night And Thursday Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.

I do love that if it’s not heat advisory levels you jump right to hot chocolate . Like there’s no middle ground. 88/72 at MVL. Steam bath.

62 degrees inside and can’t see in/out a single window or glass door, ha. Feels like the dew point is like in the 30s inside. Love the mini-split dehumidifier option here in the mountains of South Florida. A healthy inch of rainfall here today along the Stowe CC and river. So much low level moisture right now. Warm and saturated.

Piermont, NH with 4.14” in 3 hours from a mesonet station? Thats not too shabby.

Closing in on an inch today… rain rate of 2.48”/hr right now.

A tropical storm would be “Shut ‘em down” for the state. Thanks for playing, time to load up the wagons and head elsewhere.

From WPC: The CAMs are in good agreement that convection will expand, although the exact placement of what will be primarily scattered cells or multi-cells through 20-25 kts of bulk shear is uncertain. This is reflected by modest 1"/6hrs EAS probabilities, but high(>80%) and moderate(>30%) neighborhood probabilities for 1" and 3", respectively, in 6 hours. There is high confidence that convection will expand as thermodynamic advection continues from the south pushing PWs to broadly over 2" and SBCAPE to nearly 2000 J/kg in much of New England and Upstate NY. These cells will generally lift northward progressively on 0-6km mean winds of 15-20 kts, but the widespread coverage should result in multiple rounds in many areas. Additionally, nearly unidirectional flow noted in morning soundings suggests brief training is possible along narrow N-S corridors. Rain rates will likely reach 1-2"/hr in most of these cells, and the HRRR 15-min accumulation product suggests locally 0.75"+ of rain is possible this evening which indicates brief intense rates to 3"/hr are possible. These axes of enhanced training are where the heaviest rainfall is expected, and this is most likely from far eastern Upstate NY into much of VT where 2-3" of rain is possible. FFG across the region has been compromised from recent heavy rainfall, and there are some local minimums of less than 1.5"/3hrs in the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. This area is generally sensitive anyway due the terrain features supporting rapid runoff when rates become intense, but the antecedent rain has made the area even more vulnerable.

This stuff is pure tropical small droplet rains. 1”/hr rates out of mundane radar echoes. Almost 0.40” on the day now.

73/73 at local PWS, 73/72 at MVL. Its tropical outside. Moisture feeding back from the ground into the atmosphere? It’s a swamp. Feeding back on itself. It rains, it pumps the dews by increasing ground moisture. Then the sun comes out and it gets hot, the surface steams moisture back into the atmosphere. The NNE jungle.

I try and do detach myself from the humanitarian side/impacts, due to my love of extreme weather… but it’s been upturning people’s lives lately. I/We joke about the “covered bridges” pattern but these increased PWATs and moisture rich air masses are just devastating towns, almost one-by-one, in the rolling Vermont hills.

Dude I pray .

We are going to be like +5 for July here. I’ll need to see it first too before believing.

Crazy that it maxed out right over the town. St J isn’t huge but it’s decent sized for that area in NNE. When do you get an 8” deluge to sit over an ASOS that’s oddly situated not at an airport but in the middle of town at the Fairbanks Museum. CoCoRAHS too.

When you guys are getting deform bands and 30” in 12 hours this winter… I’ll have to think back and remember at least we enjoyed washed out roads.

This is wild in the NE Kingdom.

This is borderline unfathomable to be honest. A full 5-day average of -3 to -5 in mid-August… just doesn’t happen. Regardless of the poor AI model, tossed on any model.

This thunder is crazy. I’m not sure I’ve ever heard it like this… cracking but then echoing almost. It’s bizarre, constant noise. Weird to get a storm to back in from the East.

The wild flowers are firing all across the ski trails. The noise is what’s crazy though. It’s hard to put into context but it’s thousands and thousands of bees and insects going nuts over what’s likely 100s of acres of wild flowers. Every single flower has multiple bees or insects enjoying it… and it’s on an enormous scale. The “buzz” is pretty incredible to walk through.

Wasn’t bad up here. 84F in the valley at MVL. Dews mid-60s. Above normal summer day in the mtns.

What’s your safe word?

Ahh if they are basing it on those amounts, that makes sense. The yellow and dark green pixels up here are about 50% of actual rainfall. It should be widespread dark orange.

Interesting. Going back to May 1st, just hard to believe this swath of Vermont would be below normal even with any gauge input, regardless of radar limitations here.

That NVT stretch east of the Greens has to be from lack of radar coverage, right (area between Champlain Valley and NNH)? I guess I’m asking if this is radar generated instead of ground obs generated?

Yeah and earlier 12z was wet. I just found it funny that he posted that an hour after 18z came in much drier on the mesos.