powderfreak

Bolton Valley to Richmond area seemed to be in a dire situation on the west slope through the I-89 corridor. 3-6” of rain in tilted terrain over a 3-4 hour period?… after 7-10” in the month of June and 15-20” since April 1st. Every waterway is exploding right now.

River is onto the lawn. Had to go check it out as this is the perfect storm for high flash water. I’ve never seen it up this high. That’s not hyperbole. We have another 12-18” of subtle rise to go before it’s an issue for us, so I think we’ll be fine. But there is a RETAINING wall just past the bushes down to the river channel. This is up like 12 feet and it’s still pouring rain. The photo doesn’t show the energy. Whole trees floated by, but couldn’t get one in a photo. The middle of this is a good 15 feet of swift water on a normal knee to thigh deep maximum. Over 4” now. I know many people are completely f*cked if the water level is this high on the knoll.

The global models missed this event. They all had the stripe of heaviest rain well north, into Quebec. The EURO and GFS were so far north with their axis of heavy rain, even on the recent runs. The CAMs (convection allowing models) seemed much more accurate.

Crazy how localized it can be. About a mile SE of here in the Lower Village (Cocorahs observer) has had an inch less. It’s all 2-3”+ but sharp local boundary so far with a mile or two away seeing 1”+ differences.

Now 3.54” just 13 minutes later. Over 2” in 41 minutes. Rates of up to 4.25”/hr during that time. Flash flooding is occurring with driveway washouts. River is just starting to rage.

We are playing catch up. This has been training over us for a bit now. Fast increase of 1.50”+ to go from 1” to 2.5”+ and it’s just absolutely pouring.

2.57” ten minutes later.

Now have been cranking 3.50”/hr rates the past 15 minutes and quickly over 2” with just torrential rain.

There's a swath through C.VT getting obliterated. Near @mreaves... "Village is being evacuated"

Man, the totals between your area and Williamstown are like 3-5” in short order. We just crossed over 1” here. Been more of a steadier soaking rain without anything extreme.

Goodbye bridges.

NY State Police posting photos of damage.

Bang COC style.

Tornado Watch. Interesting.

I think it’s even north of here. Have felt that way for past two days. We are going to get a solid watering of 1+ inches, but the globals have been consistent in highlighting international border and north as the max axis. The mesoscale models are moving north too. There will be spot, convective, heavy rain 2”+ footprints as the warm front lifts north… But where it slows and occludes probably maxes out the synoptic lift in a very moisture rich airmass.

Yikes.

Man, the woods and lake in Woodstock is always the worst spot for them to me. Walking dirt roads in NE CT and those horse flies will try to carry you away. Now they are moving up here, ha.

Yes, been noticing that. Often don’t have much issue up here with them (not like down in CT) but this year they are everywhere and on you immediately.

Look at that wave of moist air. But no biggie… They took a core sample of a very first snowmobile ever made along the Quebec and Maine border and found the engine rings indicated these dews and temps were quite common back in the early 1900s.

I mean, regardless of the causation, all evidence points to one thing… Warmth. In all regions. The momentum is too much to fight, so you just go with it.

Our recent experience the past few years (or decade) makes those type of departures seem mundane. Summer departures have historically been significantly lower in variance than winter departures, though. We seem to rattle off +4 to +8 departures in the cold season like it’s no biggie. In the warm season those departures are all-time records. I remember when +2 in July was a hot month. Now it’s a baseline. Our first week of July at MVL is +4.7.

118/21 is hard to wrap one’s head around. It’s so ridiculously hot. But the dew is 21F. 3-4% RH is hard to fathom for us NE folks.

Yeah for sure, totally get it. I’ve just always associated my “real feel” to whatever the nearest ASOS dews are. It’s definitely higher where I am (not on an airstrip) but it’s my personal barometer.

I know it’s real in the yards with PWS, but I want those high dews at an ASOS. If I experience like mid-80s dews, my barometer is that it’s from an official station. It just hits differently. If an ASOS is well into the 80s, your home station would probably like 88F .

I would like to experience an 86F Td at some point in my life… for like an hour or so.