powderfreak

Ah ok that deeper convection robbing moisture makes sense to me. A stronger thermal gradient along the coast too. I guess I can see it.

See I would’ve thought drier air inland (take away summer moisture) in winter could’ve pushed the precip gradient even further east, not west? Though mid-level magic might have been put more of a banding structure in Ginxy’s area.

Baroclinic processes would have led to a firehose back to the River in winter? I’m curious to hear a bit more on this. There couldn’t have been a gradient in E.MA in the winter?

What an evening out here. Warm, dry, sunny. Just chillin’ at the overlook right now at 3+kft in shorts and t-shirt in the mild temps.

Crazy, we’ve been in the 70s since 11am up here.

Flood Warning for the Hudson River at KPOU. It hasn't rained near there in 11 days. What am I missing? Edit: Guess I'm missing the tidal effects up there. I had no idea the tide had that much impact on the Hudson that far inland. Flood Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 130 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 && NYC027-111-220530- /O.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0046.240921T1900Z-240924T0410Z/ /PKMN6.1.ER.240921T1900Z.240921T2000Z.240923T2210Z.UU/ 130 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Hudson River near Poughkeepsie. * WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...At 4.2 feet, Minor flood stage. Minor flooding of lowlands, boat docks and boat launches. Water covers State Route 213 in Eddyville.

It’s a pretty damn nice day though. I want real fall but San Diego continues onward. 72/54 up here.

Yeah I could've said it with more tact. Yeah, it gets cooler than it was in previous days this time of year, it stirs feelings of autumn regardless of the number. If it was 82F and now it's 69F, it's a step down and that gets the body to thinking of fall. I get it, I can’t wait for some more regular 30s/40s at night and 60s by day.

lol you were in the rain and wind at your place. The obs show that, 50s and NE flow at IJD. No one said you weren’t. It was 10F warmer on the other half of the state. Regardless, it just proves the point that our expectations and “real feel” has adapted with the warmer weather.

Ha just busting your balls, walking outside to 60s in the morning just sounded funny as an example of autumn (anywhere). But yeah our baseline for what constitutes “cool” is so far out of whack now with climate change that yeah, 60s in the morning is a cool refreshing air mass. For context, the normal min at the torch spot of Bradley is 52F, record low is 30F. It was in the 60s this morning.

It’s still like mid-upper 60s by 10am in western New England?

What a month. Two completely different vibes. This is MVL, similar climate to here in that 750ft valley elevation. -1.7F through the 12th. Then a switch flipped and we are finishing our 9th straight day of 80s/50s. That's an incredible streak for up here. Average was 69/44 today.

Wish we could embed with ease again. It’s a two-step process now.

Yes but it always has been. Thats the thing with departures. You can compare areas because their environment is baked into their normals. I’m not sure what you are getting defensive over? lol. It’s been above normal, abnormally mild.

Yes but it’s always been hot. Departures from normal aren’t absolute temperatures.

We are getting our “normal” summer weather now. 82/55 is like normal July up here at MVL… it just doesn’t feel like it because summer has averaged like 87/67 lately. If we get a “normal” mid-summer period one of these years, folks will think it’s cold. Our baseline expectation is so far removed from where it should be.

CPC seasonal probabilities (these maps shouldn’t be called “outlooks”) out today. A lean towards above normal and moist relative to normal. No big risk taking there. That’s the safe play recently… lean AN in temperatures and those positive departures usually come with some moisture in the cold season.

The Mansfield stake data is so important to me and your post shows why it’s such a great data set. It’s a simple data set that really works to show different winters’ characteristics. In 1954 some dude put a tall piece of wood against a tree to measure the snowpack that season… and 70-years later here we are still recording the snow depth on that piece of wood. Anytime the NOAA camera goes out up there, we (at the ski operations) will make sure to get up there. So much so, we will skin/hike up the hill to get readings if the lifts aren’t running. I think the crowd sourcing and local dedication to that data point is awesome. If NWS is looking for a reading, the community gets it with a photo for verification. Someone out there will pass by it, on foot or snowcat/snowmobile. We pass it along to BTV to keep the record going. But most readings are done from a camera the local NWS set up. The fact the BTV office has put so much money and energy into technology to continue the readings remotely is a testament to its novelty. 4kft elevation snowpack numbers for 70 years and counting. The period of record at that elevation is what makes it “the fabled stake.”

Diddy?

Looks like MVP tied a 2015 daily record of 81F today. They are at 1,165ft.

Good question, it’s closer to records than I thought. There probably are some stations tying or being close to daily recorded maxes. The record maxes really do quickly tail off this time of year… BTV is the longest climo spot and their 85F high is a tick shy of the 87F daily record; which is a step down from the 90s previously. The record high two days ago is 92F at BTV. So that’s another level of heat from this year.

84F today is +14 on the high. Average is 70F. Still not record hot, but sustained warmth and sun has been noteworthy. I’ve said this a couple nights now… but my call of mostly 70s instead of 80s has missed the mark. I think accountability and self-reflection is important in today’s society, ha. I thought things would moderate… but it’s been sustained 80s. The dry landscape seems to be feeding back into the temperatures too. The dry surface seems to get us that extra afternoon boost in temp, as the atmosphere mixes out. It’s been a dry heat, with a lower sun angle that reminds you it’s not mid-summer.

Thats always what I thought. They are just closing up shop early… try again next year type of thing. I mean we’ve had some real dry stretches in recent years… I don’t have any actual data to compare but this might be worse in an acute short time frame? But New England vegetation is very hardy… I feel like it would take a lot to actually kill mature native trees.

I hear ya, just busting your balls. I got so frustrated with the rain this summer impacting so many outdoor plans, that I just cannot bring myself to then flip flop and complain about it being dry. It’s been one helluva run of weather if you love being outdoors. Hopefully you’ve got plenty of water for the sprinklers. Assuming you’re on municipal water supply?

Haha, it’s hard to satisfy your weather needs. It’s not hot and humid enough for the beach, it’s too rainy at Winni, it’s too dry for the lawn, winter sucks…