powderfreak

Wow, ended up with 1.04” total water from the last 24 hours. Sneaky soaker as Phin called it. 31F at top of the Gondola this morning, too.

Heavy squall style weather. Wind and sideways rain in these bursts.

I think rime icing is a good possibility in the northern mountains instead of snow showers. Models have high RH trapped under 5-6k feet, but rapidly dropping to 40% above 6kft. Drying aloft in the colder profile won’t facilitate cloud ice crystal formation very well. Super-cooled droplets though could find ease sticking to the kummholz.

Past peak view from the office... uniform color mixed with bare trees. Taken today, but before the highest winds and rain/hail.

Props for the solid call dude. All morning on here you were banging the high wind stuff. Even clearly said take the over on those weenie wind maps that Whinemister posted, which is rare to hear from a met regarding those products. But high-end official ASOS gusts from ALB to BOS after this morning's posts.... you take the W today on the board. Cap tip.

And nope. It is pouring again. Every time I think it’s done another round pops up over Mansfield and rolls into town.

0.76” looks like it’ll do it here. MVL ASOS has leaves clogging the rain gauge, only 0.03” there today despite several rounds of 1.75sm visibility rain .

From a co-worker still up at the base area. The only time of year anything white will accumulate on the heated walkways...before they turn them on lol.

Down to 47F after that squall in the valley.

Not bad for ORH.

That area doesn’t get big wind events either... They haven’t really been naturally pruned as much as eastern New England or CT in recent years. Gusts of 60-70mph will take a lot down around the Capital District. That ALB ob is hard to beat for that area.

The worst winds here are with the line hitting us now. Gusting to 40mph and pea sized hail. Death blow for any remaining foliage.

Small hail in Stowe... peas. Winds probably gusting to 40mph. Wouldn’t call it severe but a strong storm for sure.

My dad near Albany just called, said that was probably the worst thunderstorm he can remember in decades. Obviously no power, trees and limbs down in the streets... he said the upstairs windows and side of house were covered in leaves and pine needles. We’ll see how long the power is out in the Albany area.

Hopefully that line comes through for you. Just got home to 0.49” today, not too different from the mountain. Cleaned the hell out of the stratus the other day, no more moldy green lol. Although looks like there’s another line coming soon.

Ha came in to post the same thing from ALB, you guys got it covered. That's really impressive for that airport!

0.57" today up here at 1,500ft. Definitely been trending wetter lately. We'll see what home has down in the valley shortly.

Gondola has been on wind hold up here for the first time in a very long time. Nothing overly exciting here at 1500ft, some 20-30mph gusts. Above 3000ft though is gusting to 60mph. The clouds are moving fast, ha.

First burst here brought 0.15-0.30” it looks like to local PWS on the Spine and eastward. BTV radar has been down since 12:30pm but doesn’t seem like much is happening out there right now. Feels more normal now with frequent rain every few days, like we are out of that September dry funk.

Quick tenth of an inch last hour and raining steadily. Cold 51F up here at 1,500ft and looks like 53F down in town. Strong westerly flow downsloping into BTV area and then upsloping again into the Greens and east of the Spine. Should see a standing wave pattern develop for a bit here with that up/down/up couplet as moisture hits the Adirondacks, drops/dries into the Champlain Valley and then rises again over the Greens and gets shoved way eastward in the fast flow. The atmospheric speed bumps are working.

Ryan Maue approves of this post.

Some interesting weather tomorrow...Strong winds and some rain? QPF amounts will be highly tied to terrain given the strong westerly flow, with upslope areas of the Greens/Adirondacks seeing the most precip and the Connecticut and Champlain Valleys seeing the least owing to downsloping effects. Total QPF amounts will range from 0.3 to 1.0 inch over higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, to 0.1 to 0.4 inches in the Champlain, Saint Lawrence, and Connecticut Valleys. Just how strong winds will get tomorrow is a tricky forecast...and will likely see much variability in reported winds due to expected precipitation. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon into the evening in areas that see breaks in precipitation...which should be on the eastern slopes of the northern Adirondacks and the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains. Wind gusts in these areas will be between 30 and 45 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts will range from 20 to 35 mph. As stated before, the wrench in the forecast could be the precipitation and it`s stabilizing effects on the lower- levels...so expect weaker winds in any areas that see prolonged precipitation.

Time for the mountains to get some whitening... looks like 2500ft+ best shot but some mangled flakes could reach 1500ft at the tail end on that run. Getting to be that time of year. A Thursday gondola ride may be in order to start the day lol.

Fairly standard October morning...42F up top.... another Tuesday at work, cell phone shot out the window.

I think it's a lot of increased "noise." It would be interesting to study one specific meteorologist or one specific outlet's long range forecasts for the last 20 years to see if there's anything there... but as a group making long range forecasts it has exploded since the 2000s with social media. Maybe if we just looked at only HM or Stormchaserchuck for the last 20 years we'd see it's probably fairly equal, but given that explosion in sources for long range seasonal information, I bet that plays a part in it. Same with the media... even just back in the first half of the 2000s you'd just watch your evening NBC/CBS/ABC outlet at 6pm to see the "news." Now it comes at you from all sides and methods, some true some nefarious. I think the same has happened to "meteorology" to an extent. More data does not make it better as a whole... like the King Euro when run twice a day had this mythic thing about it. Now run it 4 times a day and it seems no different than the GFS and NAM, lol. Run it all the time like the HRRR and it's like what are we doing here, it changes every hour? It would be interesting to have a model run once daily and see what the "perception" is on it's accuracy, not its actual accuracy but I bet people will have a perception that it's "more stable" than the others. Because you only see it once and not 4 times a day, ha!