powderfreak

I actually think in this area it might finally be getting the right idea... several inches on Mansfield and the Spine above 2500-3000ft. This big widespread swaths of snow were lol here... that map is what it should look like just dotting the peaks.

Where ever that photo from May was taken of your buddy servicing the wind farm seems like a good place to start lol.

Find some plateau up there at 2,500ft and do some riding around lol. 925mb still is extremely marginal, I think you’d want at least 2000ft or more in elevation... what’s the elevation around Jackman? That’s where I think the best shot at CCB snows might be.

See! We always knew that Whitefield was the snowiest spot out of the Jackman, Eustis, Rangley, Berlin axis, haha.

Damn bear is back. Raided the trash again after a nice 4 week hiatus and took a dump right under our bedroom window lol. Probably just strolling around outside the wall while we sleep.

Yeah it’s been a bad model. 12 hours ago (1 run of the old Euro) it had a 990-something cyclone plowing into PWM with strong conveyor belts. Forky’s animation is hilarious for the KING.

I know it’s splitting hairs but the 00z ECM was by far the most amped, 998mb over PWM...more so than yesterday’s runs. The 12z GFS is really weak out East with SLP, but still very good drink for much of the forum. I’m leaning that way for sure.

Yeah this system is another very wet one when you factor in the stalled boundary and frontogenic forcing along that, then the follow up coastal low. Plenty of QPF. The stalled boundary even looks like it might temporarily become a warm front going back the other way for a time in NNE ahead of the surface low.

You’re still getting a lot of rain. You keep trying to sell rain in your area but it’s coming. Stein’s done.

Yeah the Euro and NAM bias of being slow and amped getting corrected quickly. Ride the GFS these days. It’s been on that for days now. Go East young man. Crazy how good the GFS has been the past 4-6 weeks, have to toss the Euro these days. GFS has gone wide right of the Cape past two runs. Here’s 6z:

Yeah just dress the kids at home if it’s under 20 minutes or so. It is another world of cold/wind in the northern mountains at least to me.

In Maryland climate? LOL. J/k, sort of. Just wait till you are booting your family up in a parking lot at Wildcat/Bretton Woods on a winter morning next to Alex’s thermometer that just hit -25F, ha. Or while the wind threatens to rip your car door off and your kid just went rolling through the base like a tumbleweed. It’s going to be a big deal in the cold, windy northern mountains. It can be really, really unpleasant to try and get ready in the lot.

That’s why you want to sell season passes, lol. Day tickets people expect something that day... season pass holders just go home without complaining.

Oh there’s no way it snows below 1500ft IMO, not a chance unless it’s like May 11th last year when it was ripping 0.20”/hr in the MVL bucket and after 4 hours of that type of rates it dynamically cooled to paste down low. I like 3,000ft and higher right now for anything real fun. 925mb is very marginal throughout on all models. Even in heaviest precip that layer is only barely touching 0C on Euro/GFS. GGEM keeps it like +1C to +2C. Need to see a well defined CCB develop for any chance at snow under 3kft.

The weenie snow maps seem extra weenish this time of year. It’s like counting precip as snow with SFC of 37-40F and 925mb around 0C. Many of the snow maps certainly don’t line up with what soundings would lead you to believe... seen a lot of snow maps shared on social this morning in ski country lol.

Yeah for sure, I could see it changing through the season. It was just shocking how many people seemed oblivious to COVID this weekend... wondering why only prepackaged food was available, why they can’t go inside lodges, why the lift line is so long because its live together ride together. To your point I think people might come and realize IT IS a different experience. They weren’t lying when they said you boot up at your car in the cold. You aren’t taking the family and bags into the lodge, that entire base lodge now has a max occupancy of 75 people including staff with counters at the door. You go in to piss and then go back outside. I think you are on the right train of thought with huge initial demand, until people realize it’s truly about skiing and skiing only. You aren’t getting a beer with your buddies in the lodge. Your not sitting for 4 hours with your kids in a day lodge... if they aren’t into skiing that day you go home.

Honestly most of the smaller tier places are likewise worried that they won’t be able to meet the demand. There will be a lot of overflow from the big resorts where people can’t get tickets for or are at capacity. The industry is concerned it’s going to do flat numbers at a very reduced capacity, thus leading to total chaos as demand far out-paces COVID supply. And even smaller mountains are going to drastically cut back on day ticket sales. Places have stopped selling seasons passes in some cases and stopped all sales all together. Many smaller areas jacket up their rates too, to try and combat the demand. If the last few weekends are any indication, people are so far over COVID it isn’t even funny. These ski areas are going to get full visitation at 50% possible occupancy lol. It’s going to be a sh*tshow. A LOT of people are going skiing to very limited services and lift capacities. I mean this past weekend was filled with “We are no longer allowing people in, we have reached a level of customers we are comfortable with for a global pandemic.” Is met with “What pandemic? That was April. F*ck your comfort level my family wants to ride your gondola.” Lol.

Way up. Epic is substantially up but they added the Peak resorts this year so hard to compare year over year. Most ski areas are way up on passes, people are afraid that’s the only way they can ski as many of the larger operations have said they won’t do day tickets or it’ll be severely restricted day tickets. Many people got discounts/credits on passes from last year’s early closing too, along with assurances/pass insurance this season... there was a ton of incentive to buy a pass this year for consumers and they took it.

Yeah that’s a lot of snow at the picnic tables.

There’s no way to know if someone quarantined or not. How could anyone prove you didn’t sit locked in your house for two weeks before your weekend in VT? Because you can do the quarantine before you visit, so there’s literally zero way to prove anything. Obviously it’s unlikely but unprovable. Given the massive volume of fall foliage tourists from all over the United States this past weekend, it’s a moot point. The Vermont Ski Area Association is basically going with the assumption that people are responsible and follow the state guidance but beyond that it here’s nothing anyone will do. A recent article in the local Stowe paper here quoted the General Manager of Smugglers Notch as saying that the only few people this summer that were asked to leave that resort, were people who openly admitted to not following the quarantine, mocked it, and signed the state’s form anyway. The gist was basically don’t be stupid and advertise that you didn’t follow the guidance as then you sort of force the hand.

You are holding onto Stein’s hand with a strong grip, afraid to let go. Like a Stockholm Syndrome, developing an attachment to your abuser... afraid of what life without Stein will be like.

Yeah she gone. Flood Watches will be out in the next week or so, lol.

Just different zones... based on general storm system trajectories we certainly see different weather than much of the forum. Everything from snow to thunderstorms. Anyway, check out the 18z GFS.... plenty of rain over the next 8 days lol. It goes absolutely wild early next week with a stalled front.

So nice to see the monkey climbing off many backs today. Now every model run with more than a quarter inch of rain won’t get automatically tossed because of Stein. Finished with 0.41” here. As usual if the majority of the forum is getting a lot of a certain type of weather, we probably won’t. We only get a lot when the majority of the forum doesn’t .

There’s a lot of water coming out of the hills these days, ha. This weekend hiking was by far the wettest and muddiest of the entire warm season, IMO.