powderfreak

I think seeing is believing and the fact that BTV can see the mountains 17 miles east of their office, and the fact they live up against those mountains, brings a lot more focus to it. There’s also a decent population that lives in these areas, and the most heavily traveled highway in VT is the 89 stretch from Montpelier to Burlington... right past J.Spins house in the max upslope zone. Like they can’t ignore it.

Yeah I think you’ll do better on the upslope than models think. Can’t take them at their word, it’s more just looking for the signal. You’ve got 3-4000ft behind you to WNW it looks like... unblocked flow will just dump that snow on the Lee side (you).

From what I’m seeing the flow for upslope looks pretty uniform with height and not a ton of low level veering. It looks fairly unblocked which is better for you and I... the snow should be able to propagate downwind of the crest axis with ease.

18z NAM looks decent. Goes apeshit with that second low.

BTV AFD going all in: Through the 48-hour period total snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch below 1000 feet, 4-6" from 1000-2000 feet across the Adirondacks and central/northern VT and approaching a foot at the highest peaks.

Cold afternoon up on the shaded East Side.

It’s crazy for those SE areas that got 4-5” on a 40-inch annual average just picked up a 10-12% head start on normal snowfall... in October. If this was like one of the probability models showing the chances of reaching normal snowfall, it just lurched heavily towards that. Like a win probability on MLB when someone scores 8 runs in the first inning. No guarantee, but the win probability for winter 2020-21 just went up quite a bit.

15F

00z NAM gone wild. Good consensus for widespread snow in these model runs, but likely only advisory levels. Fun to look at though. The northern slopes of the Adirondacks, through the northern Greens and northern Presidentials, all set up to get a measurable snowfall.

This was impressive given model guidance in approaching days, TBH. It adds to the mystique of the near term event, it was a positive bust for many spots (?). The first system added that additional southward tug of cold air behind it (especially in the lower 925mb level). right as the second low got going much further south. Once that cold air started moving SEward, it had some serious momentum. Put a nice sweet spot through SNE.

My father spent over three decades working as an emergency physician in a couple ER's.... and I know he saw a lot of patients that did not need to go to the ER. People go to the hospital for very benign things, which is so much more common than true life or death situations. He always used to say fevers were one of the biggest reasons to go to the ER, despite most people just needing to stay in bed for a day or two and take some over-the-counter meds. The hospitals can be pretty busy most of the time, well before any pandemic.

An axis from Ginxy to you to Scooter is by far the most impressive part of this storm to me at this point. That's truly awesome that the Advisory level snows made it that far southeast. This was bigger than October 2011 for you right? I think the period of return from IJD to TAN to BOS line has got to be pretty large. Once in a lifetime type stuff? Who knows these days though.

Cold late October evening... it was 18F at the picnic tables when I took the dog for her Friday evening walk. We made it back just as darkness fell. Now down to 25F here in town.

Ouch! Depends what elevation you are at when you take the fall. If it's in the valley, hope you fall onto one of the cars coming in from Mass on this Friday evening that still have snow on them LOL.

Ha, hope you know I'm just joking. Never thought you'd be railing on anyone who poo-poo'd a snow event .

Did you hit your head recently?

LOL at BTV discussing guidance showing SLK temps near 0F tonight. That’s pretty damn cold. The record low for SLK is 4F tomorrow.

I wonder what the return rate on that would be in the historical probabilities given how far that number is from the old record...in a location with very long POR.

Another from Woodstock, CT. My aunt says an even 5”.

Ha! A Mass plated vehicle just showed up to the hotel up here covered in snow. Bringing the snow to Vermont, well played.

That was an awesome run, ha. When the global models show that, it’s a big signal. Especially in a cold air mass ratios could be decent.

That’s sick to see several of you with legit 5” amounts. Damn. Anyone melt it down yet to see what ratios are?

Holy sh*t! Three times the all-time October record at BOS.

Ha yeah this family member is off Lebanon Hill Road on that side of the pond. Probably like a mile or two from your place.

Family says 3-4” in Woodstock, CT.