powderfreak

Nice! I didn’t see anything sticking down in town but up here the view at the office is of snowy trees.

First light snow obs of the season up here at the ASOS. Small granular flakes. KMVL 261006Z AUTO 21006KT 4SM -SN SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 02/M01

Euro Ensembles giving us 30% chances of 6”< with the Day 5 system... thats not nothing at this time frame. You back up north?

Didn't sniff freezing up high today. Cold vibe with icicles and rime ice.

Interesting to still see occasionally interesting outcomes at Day 5 now. It’s not completely in la la land.

A legit air mass... 1pm and 41/23 with a breeze in the valley. 26F at the picnic tables. Definitely feels like a snow column outside if any rouge shower were to move through.

Pitcher also failed to back up the catcher, as soon as that ball is hit to the outfield he should be running behind the catcher to backup the play at the plate...instead he’s standing in no mans land in front of home plate. It was a pure little league play, ha.

That was one of the craziest things I’ve watched. Two outs, bottom of the 9th... the “Double Buckner” they call it.

Pretty detailed BTV AFD/area forecast discussion regarding the short term system. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Positive thickness advection and an influx of deep moisture should produce abundant clouds and light precipitation on Monday. Temperatures at the onset of precipitation should be cool enough to allow for some wintry precipitation. Portions of the Northeast Kingdom and areas at or above 2000ft agl should see some snow at the onset, followed by transition to a wintry mix, and then rain. Forecast soundings around Saranac Lake, NY and Nulhegan, VT have fairly complex thermal profile with the inversion far aloft around 7000ft agl only just above freezing with a layer below freezing sandwiched in between wet-bulb temperatures near freezing at the surface. Elsewhere, depth of warmer air is greater and stronger, which would make for a cold rain. Overall, the best forcing and precipitation takes place in the afternoon, with profiles becoming above freezing with a quick transition towards rain (except perhaps across the far northeast corner of Vermont). Thus, it looks like a fairly damp and cool Monday with forecast highs in the mid 40s. For such a weak low, the precipitation it produces is impressive, aided by the deep-level of saturation and good isentropic lift. Cross isobaric flow at potential temperatures of 295K should lift moisture from around 850mb to 780mb with relative ease. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" seems likely. Weak surface low deepens as it departs eastwards. Some northwesterly flow should allow precipitation to linger higher peaks and near the foothills with semi-blocked flow and higher relative humidities remaining. The DGZ becomes unsaturated, though, and would likely not produce anything high quality from the departing system. Overnight lows expected to fall into the 30s.

I could see analyzing a 1-2 hour period of wintry precip before rain down there in mid-winter. Sort of like a perpetual NNE October/November all winter long. Anyway, over by you and Alex has the best chance as starting as some snow or wintry mix with the WAA moving in aloft initially over a very marginally cold air mass.

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning. I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days. Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning. I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days. Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

Pretty crazy that at 5am it was 64F and we slept all night with windows and doors open (almost turned the fan on).... while at 3pm it was 44F. Exact opposite of the normal diurnal swing. It’s been a cold afternoon.

Cold day up high! Wind chill in the teens. Full winter clothing needed at the picnic tables.

Find the cold front. Summer night last night and now temps plummeting.

Yeah, like Phin and Will said, the recorded areas get 700-800”, but the heli-ski operations have estimated 1,000+”. Definitely possible to get those type of forecasts. Not going to happen often but those are the big time storms up there. Lots of moisture.

Summer evening. 64/57 at 9pm. Windows and doors still open. Left work at 3pm and took the dog for a hike. Shorts and t-shirt temperatures to the picnic table level. Torch.

Average of 7-8" per hour for at least 12 hours... that's something we'll never comprehend. And even though the temps are probably decent ratios, it's maritime snow so it's probably still pumping 6" water every 12 hours. Nothing like 0.50+" in the tipper per hour for at least 18 hours straight, at temps in the teens.

It's hard to get anything past you, nice guess man. For me the tell-tale sign is the south winds. Where else are you going to get that moisture at those temps on a south wind? It was west of Valdez, about half way to Anchorage. Just crushed on SE to S flow. That SE flow probably converges and flows into that horseshoe shaped bay, slamming into huge mountains on the coast. What a spot, lol.

Let's just get one of these storms and be done with winter, in a world-ending 24 hour period. Nothing like a routine 79-85" in the afternoon, then another 91-97" overnight.

We cover it all in here. Fears and dreams.

71F at SLK at 1,700ft is pretty torchy.

MVL mixed out to 69F now! Those warm summit temps are finally doing their thing to the lower elevations. Still a BKN cloud cover pretty low at 2-3kft but now getting some sunshine in. The inversion layer moisture seems pretty shallow. Been upper 50s to near 60F at 4,000ft most of the day, nice to get mix that down now.

As far as I know, all of that is getting baked into the capacity limits set. With years of ticket scanned data they have a good database of consumer patterns... when people show up, when people leave, how many people actually ski all day, how many in the morning, how many in the afternoon, etc. All that data is getting baked into the capacity constraints. They know that on average X-number of people can and will show up after 12-1pm, and X-number are likely to leave by 10-11am, so will include that in the daily capacity algorithm. It’s not going to be perfect, but should work.

Oh its for sure full weenie mode. Week away in October. Ain't happening but it was still fun to see some sort of wintry event under Day 10, lol. That's a start.