powderfreak

I have a theory that gets stronger every time I see it, but there is something substantial to a flow that parallels a gap in the terrain. Like what you mentioned for N or NE winds or S winds into Pinkham. The valleys between the mountains do best IMO on flows that parallel that terrain and cause a good deal of low level convergence as all that air is forced between 3,000-4,000ft terrain... like when you put rocks close to each other in a river and watch the water build up and then get squeezed between them. I really think it's a thing for J.Spin in the Winooski Valley and I've seen enough times where it appears some meso-scale convergence is happening between the mountains on westerly flow that takes his precip rates to another level... and say RT 2 corridor in Randolph has a similar topography in a larger sense to I-89 corridor through the Green Spine where J.Spin is...with a relatively narrow gap between the terrain. Pinkham would have the best forced flow on a blocked southerly or blocked NEly flow, IMO. When there's veering with height, the moisture has more trouble getting over the barriers so it finds the gaps to squeeze through... like forcing toothpaste out of a bottle, you get this concentrated stream out the end. I do think the preferred locations are ones with gaps that travel east to west but I'm very convinced there's something meso-scale to those lower terrain mountain passes between larger terrain, where the best results are flows that parallel the gaps. That wind will take the path of least resistance and so it all funnels into those gaps, leading to intense low level convergence. Results in better low level lift, often better snow growth, and you get absolutely zero low level drying of hydrometeors. It is extremely efficient precipitation to have a flow align with the gap in the mountains.

We’ve seen some pretty blocked flow synoptic events over the years, but it would still benefit Pinkham because MWN is higher than Wildcat... I don’t see them getting blocked on anything with a SE or E low level flow. But if the SFC to mid-level lows aren’t stacked, you can get some decent veering and a low level inversion leading to solid blocking on the SE side of any terrain in some synoptic events. That veering/blocking is why the western/NW sides can sometimes do much less QPF on the synoptic portion, IMO. If the flow was unblocked you get a more even distribution on both sides of the terrain.

Yeah it is probably as ripe as it gets for brush fires. Despite the summer rain, we are at like 1/3rd of an inch in past 3 weeks up here and ground cover/leaf litter is very dry...I can’t imagine what it’s like from you to Bob.

That’ll really hamper the ability to build snowpack if the ground is burning in a few months still.

I will say our river out back is at its lowest possible flow and about as low as I’ve ever seen it. There’s enough spring fed on Mansfield to keep it moving slowly and if it never rained again it would stay like this... but it’s at the minimum. You can see the sticks stuck in that downed tree that’s about 4 feet higher than current level as an example for what the “rainy period” flow is.

What’s Tamarack got? I feel like he’s got some big Fort Kent packs in his years. Mine’s 42” in 2011 after the 3/5-6 event for places I’ve lived. You might still be the leader if the rule is you need to experience it, ha. Give Phin a couple years to get it.

Chill coming. Saturday night will be even colder than the night in most spots, especially in Vermont, as high pressure crests overhead. Current model output statistics suggest near record low temperatures for the date. North American Ensemble Forecast System data supports the unseasonably cold weather; forecasted 850 mb temperatures in our region would be among the lowest 2% compared to the 1979-2009 climatology. Favored valley locations will likely have to contend with a patchy freezing fog towards daybreak.

J.Spin gets more snow than that at 500ft. It also depends on how often someone measures. If it’s just once every 24 hours, you definitely lose some when it snows all the time. It seems that guy in Randolph is pretty diligent like J.Spin, judging by his written obs he isn’t missing any flakes. His notes from that 2010 storm cycle show he was out measuring or collecting every 2-4 hours at one point. NW flow snow though is a big deal... if you don’t get it, it can cost a good 40-50” a year. There is almost like two sets of snowfall... IMO most places get pretty similar synoptic snow as a baseline. Of course higher elevation will get more as you have the marginal events and better ratios at times...but the overall synoptic snow totals are pretty uniform to me. The kicker is the NW flow snow and the places that do that well, along with the baseline synoptic snow, seem to do the 150-200” a year at under 1500ft or under.

Yup same in Stowe down at 750ft. We got 20” (11.5” and then 8.5”) on the first wave and then rain after, whereas 1500ft and above kept piling up snow day after day. The higher els looked like the Sierra, caked in rime and like 4 feet of elephants snot, probably what Alex and Phin’s yards looked like too lol.

I’m just joking, those fake things always crack me up. Still busted out some decent ratios on the second half of that for how wet the atmosphere was. That was a crazy elevation storm... I think we only got 20” in Stowe Village whole the mountain got destroyed. It was like a 1,500ft and up type event for the big 40”+ totals. I remember the line was right near the base of the ski area here. Mansfield depth went from 54” to 102” up at picnic table level. Looking at Cocorahs, the next closest totals during that to Randolph were actually near Logan11... there are a couple sites next to ALB above 1,000ft with 52” and 58” of cumulative snowfall. Even a 40” one in western Mass too, but I think snow levels were a tad lower (not much) back out west that way than they were even in NNE. The Randolph high elevation sites stand out compared to the lower sites. Inches of rain elsewhere. That 4.57” with 8.5” snow ob to the south of Wildcat must’ve been flooding rain while 500ft above them got 4 feet. That was a crazy storm once you hit the all-snow elevation... even back into central NY.

Must be fake snow, look at 50” of snowfall the snow depth only increased 23”! <duck and run> *Note I love when people comment on that stuff regarding northern snow. “They get a foot of snow but only 5 inches of depth between the two days. Fake.”

Ha, I was thinking the same thing. As soon as they find out your from Maryland and are wealthy, they are like "lets lock him into a per-plowing rate. He has no idea what's about to happen." No offense to any of the plow guys on here, but often times people joke about the fact that if you sign up for a per-plowing rate, the plow guy will be in your driveway every single time flakes fall from the sky. But if you get the seasonal contract, you'll be wondering where the plow guy is.

Sunday morning 850mb temps... this is frigid.

Did you ask the plow guy what a full season unlimited plowing is? Honestly I don’t know anyone who averages over 100” that pays per event. We do a winter contract at like 3” minimum...also includes twice a winter or so they’ll come in with the big guns (bucket loaders) and push everything way back onto the woods and lawn. You’ll probably get 5 more feet than me too over the course of the winter, too. If money isn’t *too* much of a concern maybe it doesn’t matter, I just feel like you’ll get fleeced at $80 per plow regardless of driveway length. There’s a lot of houses up in your little area it looks like (up off Randolph Hill Rd) so I bet someone has a little monopoly up there and economies of scale might help lower the price a bit. Hell some contractor probably just keeps heavy equipment up there like they would near a ski area with condos/homes... big buckets with chains that sound like diesel dinosaurs when they show up at 5am.

Yikes.

That month sucked so bad lol. Every day skiing was below zero to start and felt like the summer was below zero all the time. Brutal cold. I remember we got excited for highs in the teens while skiing.

You are probably similar to the base of the ski area here... the plow guys are up here daily clearing the home sites and parking lots. I bet they honestly average 4-5 days per week in mid-winter. Also, buy everyone in your family some variation of this that will go over their boots if you want to walk on your driveway...like snow chains for your feet. We get them provided at the ski area for walking around: https://www.amazon.com/Yaktrax-Walk-Traction-Cleats-Walking/dp/B01LJ6FX3C

So it’s going to get packed down and icy anyway. Our driveway and parking area will have 8” of solid ice on it by the end of the winter and that’s with a 3” rule... guy doesn’t touch it or get paid for anything under that. When it thaws you won’t be able to walk on your driveway without crampons lol. Buy some of those things that go over your boots like snow chains. I’m serious, you’ll be sliding under your car holding onto the mirrors and doors at multiple points just trying to walk on it.

$80 a plow?! The frequency will bankrupt you. You want that guy to stay away anytime there is less than 6” on that thing. Do you have a truck? Might be best to just buy a plow there... or get some used tractor with one. The inches thing for plowing is tough... you’ll often see J.Spin or I refer to times when it just isn’t worth it cause it snowed 5-6” but with 0.2” water and it’ll blow away under your car as you drive out. Too bad you can’t do it by liquid equivalent up in NNE, lol. That’s really what matters for plowing over the inches. Don’t want to lay down $80 for leaf blower style snow drifting down off that ridge behind you to the NW.

March and April are by far the best ski months. Even May for skinning and corn laps on the man-made routes with sunshine until like 7pm.

This is some sad rain with the FROPA... you know it’s dry when a trough of that depth moving in can barely squeeze out maybe 5 hundredths of very small droplet rain over the upslope zone. Guess yesterday’s 19% RH didn’t really set the stage.

Good bye NNE gardens this weekend... lol BTV has “low 20s” at spots like SLK and NEK of VT for lows. Pretty early for that. “Progged 850mb temps in the -2c to -4c range, are 2 to 4 std below climo normals for the date, suggesting a high prob of below normal temps. Widespread frost/freeze conditions are likely on Friday Night into Sat”

Yeah certainly not suffering and definitely not looking for sympathy in this forum lol... getting 100” or more is still pretty snowy. There’s also the half a year it’s not snowing to consider, ha. I always think about it, but I’m not ready to give up the social aspect of living in the middle of a ski town (well, once COVID is done it’ll ramp back up) and having so much stuff within walking distance. Moving to a place that gets a similar climo to the office at work would (short of winning the lottery and just moving up to a 2-3 million place) would likely involve living somewhere with a 45 minute drive to get to work vs. the 7 minutes now. I guess that’s what I am thinking instead of burning the place down for getting less snow on NW winds than the jackpot zone, lol. Plenty close for weenie drives in elevation events. I do think by the time I’m 50 I will want to maybe head out to a more recluse high el spot; maybe then it’ll be time to cash in on 180” a year in the yard. For now I’ll settle with checking the snow boards at 1,500ft and 3,000ft and living the daytimes in that snowfall. I am really stoked for Phin this year though, dude worked hard and toiled in a Maryland climate for a long time... cashed in on the hard work building a company and found a spot. That’s the American snow weenie dream.

Yeah all daylight hours in one spot, leave home in the dark and come home in the dark, ha. Most of my daytime weather watching is in a very snowy climate. Plus we do actually do well in some events and don’t get shafted in synoptic storms... in fact any synoptic storm with SE or East low level flow will jack this side. Liquid equivalent wise we do decent. The western slope gets the fluffy upslope and adds up inches, but then you get a 1” QPF synoptic storm and that west side gets 0.40”. That’s more like HIE probably. I think it would really bother me to get shafted in synoptic region wide events more than getting 5” vs 12” in the fluffers. Then you have the J.Spin’s and Phin who do both well...plus obviously my work.

Sounds like my house to the picnic tables and it’s only 5 miles as crow flies. But it’s never bothered me at all... that’s where I need my snow, under my skis, ha. I certainly would never prefer rain and will take 5” all day long while the picnic tables pile up the pow. But it’s still pretty damn wintry regardless and we don’t get screwed in synoptic events, I think that would hurt more. It also helps when you spend 60+ hours a week and all free time up in that snow... it’s sort of like having two homes, one is snowier than the other lol.