powderfreak

Quick half inch in an hour at AQW in the Berkshires. Packing some decent rain rates, wouldn’t take long to get a soaking rain.

We 18z NAM. Pretty good consensus up this way.

Yeah Bob is crushing it at that amount... 0.41" here for the month.

I thought they dried up months ago and CT was a smoldering waste land by now?

The leaves just didn’t stick as well to the warm pavement. Have to take the measurement on grassy surfaces only. People told me the warm ground would not affect my leaf fall though.

In reality, that translates to a widespread 5-8", and then Friday and Monday are 2-4" river eastward during winter.

Ha maybe? It’s just the model literally gives you a deterministic outcome. It’s not like making guesses based on H5 or something.

How does a literal deterministic model run “translate” to something different than shown? It literally shows you the exact output... but you then “translate” into a different outcome? I’m confused. Is that like when a snow map shows 8” and you “translate” to widespread 12+?

That is one helluva gradient as Tamarack said... just over a foot in SE CT to 125”+ in S/C NH. Wow, that’s just a constant similar storm track over and over again.

Ha right on the first few snows. Now Phin should get snow in those similar upslope events... but I think this first winter more folks will be curious of his area as it’s new to the forum. There will be a novelty factor. But once they figure out that zone just has flakes in the air all the time too, they’ll tune it out fast .

Oh they are only one storm away... though you’ll probably get more lee way this winter as it’s the first winter and folks will be curious... but after that it won’t be a term of endearment lol. ”No one cares about the 6 humans living in Randolph...”

Ha that’s better. The R was a tougher one to work with... ripper is better than raking.

Yeah, driving around today it was obvious that peak is passing and more and more bare trees are showing up. The rain should take it all down if we get some heavy downpour type stuff. Maybe that's the drought and early freeze... it didn't hurt the colors but it was literally like a 48-72 hour show. One from the weekend at one of my perches around the hill:

Time to start raking, they coming down. Inches of leaves.

Was just over your way, no wind anywhere except very breezy north of the Presidentials... must’ve been some good lee side mixing from the southerly flow aloft. Really windy near Bretton Woods. Been misty and drizzling in VT, left in mist and returned to mist. 67/63

Ah you’re gonna need another phrase, Mansfield Magic is already trademarked over here . Maybe a Randolph Raking is in order?

Pretty much every model is 2-4” here by Wednesday night.

In Alex’s and Diane’s neighborhood. Wife and I decided to take a drive. Left Vermont in sheet drizzle and 60s, entered partly sunny skies in NH and temps 75-80F on the car.

There is a part of him that definitely wants Stein to continue so he can say AWT... he’s scared about life after Stein.

DIT would lose his mind on the 6z GFS.

I find the backyard West Branch responds more to rainfall rates, than overall total. Obviously, antecedent conditions are a big factor... but rainfall rates are what can really make it go nuts. There isn't nearly as much response as there is getting 3-4" in like 12 hours or less. No matter how dry it's been, if a lot of rain falls in a short period of time, the mountain runoff that feeds these waterways is substantial.

Last year we had a similar set-up with an unseasonably warm/humid air mass ahead of a slow moving front with a cold trough digging in behind it. Halloween night had several inches fall in a short amount of time as a wave developed on the front. There was localized flooding similar to Irene in the northern Greens from a similar set-up to what we have coming. I was out of town and came back to ~4" in the stratus. This upcoming event will certainly rain hard for someone and possibly a sizeable axis... get that moisture rich humid air pumping northward and a forcing mechanism. This looks like it could even be wetter, as last year's was a narrow 3-4.5" zone with a more widespread 0.5-2.0" and models are currently more impressive than that. Someone is going to get smoked in a SW to NE axis that is modeled much further east currently than last year's. Last year though had some very impressive kinematics...severe warnings and high wind products with the FROPA, iirc.

The past two days were definitely hazy... couldn't see NH/the Whites from Mansfield on either day this weekend when sky cover normally would've allowed it.