powderfreak

Walking the dog right now, here’s an iPhone shot of one of the nuclear orange/reds out there. Still plenty of green in town but the ones that have changed look like someone is feeding them fruity pebbles for fertilizer.

Maybe it shortens it but the trees in town seem equally vibrant red. I’ll have to grab some photos from the road tomorrow, coming back from work today it was popping bright red in several spots. We did freeze at 1500ft but I bet 2000+ avoided it.

Ha, photographer’s orgy out there right now. Can’t take enough photos.

It’s insane all the sudden. Foliage is just cranking in the past 72 hours. At this rate it’ll all be over in a week, lol. The worst foliage is actually above 3,000ft, just bland like that sub-ridge in the back you can barely make out in this photo. The mid-slope hardwoods and even down into town the reds are incredible all the sudden. Just full bright red.

Gonna have to check this out in Phin's backyard....

Well seeing as I’m chatting with Phin about his well... I’m not shook, I feel pretty good about a slow moving boundary, tropical moisture and mountains all interacting together.

Hopefully you just need to get to next Tue/Wed. Looks like a good set up for inches of water.

Really? Even after 15” this summer? But I will say I’ve never seen anything like this September... when these mountains are under half an inch for the month, yikes.

Yeah for sure Columbus Day is past peak up here pretty much every year, but it’s when the tourists come to look at the leaves. Every year they say “looks like we should’ve been here a week or two ago.” It’s still nice viewing but it’s that uniform orange by then...the red and yellow is gone and there’s a lot of bare trees as well.

The trees are changing every 12 hours it’s noticeable. Definitely going to peak early, by October 1st probably at this rate. Columbus Day weekend will be stick season.

That's pretty impressive. All the other years are grouped pretty closely but this summer has #2 beat by like 2/3rds of an inch.

I didn't think it had anything to do with moral superiority... and I'm not saying there isn't a lot of money at stake... but it's basic anthropology that the more advanced and prosperous a society gets the longer their population lives and in return the more unacceptable early death becomes. Since the dawn of time people have been trying methods to get themselves and others to live as long as possible... from witch doctors and potions, to the magic elixirs and fountains of youth. Humans have always had the desire to prolong life as long as possible. As one of the most prosperous/advanced countries in the world, early death is much more unacceptable here than it is in say West Africa. We are really in the "banter" zone but I find this stuff interesting to ponder.

I really like that line of analysis though, it’ll be interesting to see. We are certainly a society who continues to move towards keeping people alive as long as humanly possible, ha pun? We pour billions into medical research, cancer research, complicated procedures, daily medications (some take so many they need trays to organize them), you name it... we are here to get everyone to live a day longer than they would’ve last year. An early death is unacceptable. Its an interesting philosophical discussion to have as a country. It’s not a surprise we react this way. Without a real discussion, death won’t get any more acceptable in future generations either, in fact it’ll be the opposite as we keep plowing on in medical advancements and expectations grow.

Purely curious, in those comparisons is there a modifier that accounts for change in health care, living conditions, etc? I could certainly see past pandemics hitting those groups harder. Have people been claiming this one was worse in those age groups?

I guess it makes sense that those dying now can’t be dying later, and everyone alive needs to go at some point, so yeah obviously it’s speeding up death for those it kills... makes sense in that light. I guess the question would be how far out do you run it to correlate it with COVID, 2-3 years seems like a decent time frame for elderly populations. On the human emotion side of it, most people would certainly sign up for another 3-5 years with their loved ones. But that discussion heads more into the resulting public policy (ie was it worth it yes or no argument) which I’m trying to stay away from. I think the excess deaths trends are/will be interesting. Something happened to push a whole bunch of humans over the cliff edge, will that mean there’s a gap before the next line of people get to the cliff edge?

No reason for this stuff dude. Don’t ruin the larger discussion.

Regardless of cause, my father who’s a retired physician, on hospital board of directors, etc doesn’t like to discuss the policy side of things but always shares with me the excess deaths data. The excess deaths metrics are fascinating to look at in the US and other countries... deaths are incredibly stable year to year, almost to an incredible level to me. Like year over year some very populated cities will be within extremely small variations. He showed me one of his medical journals with NYC you can see very little variation going back to the point where you can see 9/11 for a spike in unexpected deaths. Small blips can be traced to even heatwaves too. Then starting in March it goes way high into April with unexplained spike in deaths, like nothing seen in the relative recent past. That to me is the proof that those people wouldn’t have just died anyway. They also looked at Ecuador and some other hard hit less prosperous countries... they compared the deaths to something you’d see from military conflict on excess deaths. Cause aside, something happened to kill off a lot of people that hadn’t in the past. Now public policy is a completely separate issue but too many people group the resulting public policy and their view on the illness all together.

America... where everyone has an underlying condition. High quality of life where you can have simple hypertension and be fine with a daily pill for decades. Then COVID comes and pushes you off the cliff.

The narrow chasms are so dangerous... if you fall in, slip or trip, it’s game over. First you have to survive the the initial fall but then hydraulics pin you underwater against rock walls... just terrifying. Huntington Gorge over in Richmond VT is notorious too as they have a plaque that is now double sided with names of people who have died there. Even State Police dive team members have died trying to pull other bodies out...really awful stuff.

And with that image burned into my mind, pretty nice day with a high of 71F off the morning low of 37F. Classic fall... 30s at night and into the 70s in the afternoon.

Yeah the gorges and falls are scary... 20-30 foot chasms into swift water with all sorts of weird hydro forces. It’s usually mossy and slick on the sides. Sounded like they found him and pronounced it on scene as they asked over radio for a body bag for transport back to the road. I absolutely hate when people die in these beautiful spots. Hits home at how easy even going to get some fall foliage photos in a scenic spot can turn into a nightmare.

Damn, radios going wild. 35-year-old male went into Binghams Falls up here by the ski area, hasn’t resurfaced in at least 10 minutes. Multiple agencies responding including Stowe Mountain Rescue and Colchester Technical Rescue over by BTV... having trouble getting a dive team together due to some rescuers being out of the area. Last fatality there was winter 2018-19 when someone slipped and fell in and wasn’t found for a day or so underwater. Fak.

Winter precip pattern? From here to you?

Lawns in general are very poor use of resources and environmentally do next to nothing. Many cultures and other parts of the world do not understand our infatuation with lawns. Leaving it as a field naturally is much better for the health of the local environment, or use it as a space to grow food... the lawn is certainly a product of suburban developments.