powderfreak

Yeah it's a weird one.... hottest looks to be an axis from C.NY through C.VT into N.NH. Not often MPV at 1,200ft is 85F while BTV at 300ft is 75F. Gradient is pushing into the northern Champlain Valley now... Massena, NY is 61F lol.

I’ve been there, ha. That’s what I was saying, like when you get 2 months of failed snow events, even if the models show you at 6-12” with 24 hours to go, your mind starts with the defense mechanisms... it’ll go south, banding will go north, you start almost making up reasons why the models are wrong. We’ve all been there but I know it takes a good face slap by you or Scooter to snap out of that unscientific line of thinking, ha. Looking at 12z I’d go like 1/3rd to 2/3rds of an inch for Tolland County.

Then what are you basing your ideas off of? Persistence? Fear? Perpetual sinking air that the models can’t see over N.CT that’s like a standing wave of sink since May?

12z UKMET is pretty wet. We’ll see what Euro has later. GGEM ICON

Ha. Who said jacks and floods? You’re a trip. I guess my point is the guidance looks fine but I get how the mind plays into it. It’s happened to all of us when every snow event falls apart for two months, even looking right at one your mind sees how it fails.

I haven’t looked at anything but know you are forecasting with emotion. Actually, just looked at 12z... the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, GGEM, ICON, UKMET all have 0.50”< for you... 12z GFS is delayed by NCEP. ECM isn’t out yet. We’ll see. But right now from a guidance perspective there would be no reason to think it doesn’t water your lawn unless forecasting based on pessimism. It’s not a flood forecast or whatever you want to spin it, but there’s no reason looking at every single 12z model that it won’t be a decent rain of 1/3-2/3”.

Just beaten down by Mother Nature... “everywhere else will rain but me.”

Fairly certain no matter what the set up, Kev will assume no rain regardless of modeling until he actually gets a soaking rain. It’s like late in a snowless winter, no one expects it to happen. Hope that poor guy gets some rain.

Colorado web cams FTW this morning, ha.

Looks like it’s mostly done for now on live cam.

Man, Crested Butte in Colorado got smoked. Still green leaves and 26F in +SN, lol.

Ah yeah if that’s the case then lol. I just didn’t see any comparison at all to anything else in that study, just a vacuum look at Sturgis. But these days I guess nothing is truly in a vacuum. I’ll have to read up on their past work, I’m sure Twitter is highly entertaining on this too, haha.

Yeah I didn’t read the study trying to make that point or reference a comparison to any other type of gathering. I don’t agree with its numbers but even just mentioning a possible study of Sturgis, people seem to assume the authors have said it was worse than other things? University spread seems like it may be similar... certain schools are getting decimated and sent home where it happens.

Yeah it would be from the bars and indoor stuff if it’s there. The outdoor stuff is a hard sell. Close proximity, indoors, no masks, I mean we saw what that one wedding in Maine did recently. The party at Killington recently. If it happens, it happens indoors.

Casper, Wyoming. Not bad for September 8th.

26F with steady snow falling... Chamber of Commerce day in September for ski country, ha. Even snow blowing off the roof into the camera view, looks like dry powder.

Some sun would be nice if it’s going to be warm. This reminds me of a winter torch when if it’s going to be +10 at least make it sunny.... two days of mid-level dirt so it’s warm and dark all day, ha.

It’s like modeling how much money in American health care costs are a result of the fast food industry...maybe this number? Maybe that number? Who knows? But the headline will be good: “Study finds the Fast Food Industry responsible for $100 billion in health care costs and accelerated the deaths of X number of Americans annually.” Modeling costs of negative externalities Is tough.

Any modeling is based on a decent amount of assumptions of behavior, from climate to health to economic models, so definitely use caution in any of those. It’s just another preliminary study that will evolve over time as it gets reviewed. The problem is it’s just such a sensitive topic right now that it’s almost impossible for anyone to read it in a truly objectively, IMO. At least it’s weather relevant factoring in temperature and precip to estimate indoor vs outdoor traffic . Ygcst=β +β Sturgis +β Temp +β Precip + β 'Xst+α +τt +εgct

Ha, don’t think so? I bet up here the month is back below normal by next Monday. Sitting at -0.5 coming into today.

80/62 here... average high of 73F. Definitely warm. Month has started out below normal but the next couple days might briefly flip it positive. Looks below normal after this too... maybe we can get a below normal September?

Ha, yeah I’m an idiot for leaving that out. Temps seem like they’d be pretty important. Not sure why I was assuming a 32-34F type air mass. I figure anytime you get into the 20s it’s gonna stick fine.

I feel like we have a pretty good handle on the warm ground stuff... -SN at 2.5 mile vis this time of year is just wet, maybe grassy coating. Anything with sustained visibility of a mile or under will stick. Especially that stuff that occurred overnight in Wyoming. I’m not sure if visibility is a better measure or liquid equivalent per hour is...but those are what matters.

Broomfield, CO was 90F at the 5pm obs yesterday.... 5:47am this morning they are at 2.5sm -SN. That is wild. Under 13 hours from 90F to snowing.

Not sure I’d agree... Wyoming doesn’t strike me as a place that taxes the crap out of their residents... I’m not sure they go for that out there. And you need to tax a small population a lot to have nice things. Bigger tax base, the more you have. Anyway, mild morning at a low of 55F.