powderfreak

It does work for sure.... even in SNE that last storm was said to be a 100 to 1 chance hail mary with the "better pattern coming up behind it" and people starting to worry a bit. There are definitely several cases of anxiety and worry then leading to a big event out of the blue. You'll get it... I always go with climo. Sooner or later it happens. But I also bet you've had snow cover (even if just 2") up there at Jay more than anyone else on the forum since like October if you were to tally it up. It just hasn't been able to stick around yet. Hopefully the GFS's two cutters don't come to pass in the longer term.

Jay Peak area. Either the base area village and nearby. There’s a neighborhood called Alpine Heaven near there that is easily one of the snowiest spots in New England inch for inch.

Ha, I picture you being insulted by a high Gorham number. Weather is so varied around the mountains...looks like there are some 1,200-1,700ft elevations in Gorham. It’s like in Stowe... the ski area vs the village... it all files under “Stowe, Vermont” in the PNS. One spot gets 250” a year and another could get 120” and it’s all listed as the same town. I bet regardless of what town you are in, if you got up to 1300ft or above it was 12-16” in your area pretty evenly. But that’s why it’s hard to just broad brush towns. No doubt there are parts of Gorham on the WNW side there that get the same snow or very similar.

I think that entire northern shelf of the Presidentials was getting good NE flow mid-level lift over top NW surface flow. That veering combo is why 10-15” fell in those areas. You can tell when it really started to crank and it coincided with a 7pm increase in NW surface winds at HIE/BML and a temp drop. Temps started gusting 20+ mph and temps fell with CAA, while they maxed out on mid-level lift/banding. I find that combo here in the Greens is what really crushes the ski areas. NW low level upslope flow underneath mid-level banding.

Yeah the beam is definitely blocked west of the Presidentials on that low level scan. You can see clear terrain gaps.

I wish I could post a video... this wind is nuts. Little kids blowing through the base village like tumbleweeds and parents running after them.

It has been cranking wind and snow all morning but I think it’s being blown into NH by this wind. 40-50mph gusts at times in the base area coming out of the Notch.

A friend at Sunday River had a tape measure and looked like 17-18”.

Ha yeah that's true. It would be funny to see that in the grids. Heavy snow with new precipitation amounts of 0.75-1.00" and total snowfall of 1-3".

Yeah I noticed when the accumulating snow level stayed at like 2,000ft on Friday night and then even up here at 1,500ft it rotted in the 34-35F range yesterday morning. Modeled 2-M temps were off up here by 3-4F yesterday morning. Good red flag. And also agreed on the snow maps... it's a very basic way to find the QPF that should fall as flakes, accumulation regardless.

Solid event and right in the forecast zone! He catches all those inches. I saw the key was that band got in there... the 00z EURO placed it right over your head instead of east like it had a couple runs earlier.

I feel like we take the over on those too in a cold atmosphere... “ratios will be better than 10:1 so take the over on the snow maps”. I just think they in general show too wide a swath of heavy snows in almost every storm too... large swaths of heavy snow often tighten up in reality.

Some of the ratios posted by SNE’ers and others up northeast even like Tamarack have to be pushing the boundaries of snow ratios. Like 2:1.

It really cooled off. You can tell it was paste at some point by how it’s stuck to the cars. Arctic pow and that wind the cars are probably cleaned off lol. Perfect right side up snowfall for the skiers up there.

Sugarloaf posted this for the morning photo... Prob the best shot I’ve seen so far from this one.

What a spot dude. Mountain cabin... I love that. Just a very angry inch here at Stowe... winds are absolutely cranking, gusts to 50mph even in the base area. Quad on wind hold.

Good looking radar backing in there.

That’s incredible, almost in a novel way. Those can be sleet ratios. No wonder there are a lot of power outages in that swath.

For the record I’ve seen 3 or 4 flurries float down into the dry air while walking the dog this evening by headlamp along the river.

Great pic. 6" or more of paste looks real nice.

Last to get started, last to end is the NNE motto. Need a measurement pic, get outside!... fire pit area looks like a good spot, lol.

Snow capital of the East in coastal storms for sure.

Yeah those widespread 12-24” are going down in a dumpster fire. Fascinating event from the outside. I’m shocked.

3.5" for you... wow. That looked like a lock for 8"+ too. We definitely over-estimated the dynamic cooling and should certainly pay better attention to 2-M temps next time. Last night's 00z EURO had widespread >0C surface temps as of 8pm tonight but as a forum I don't think we really discussed that aspect. The idea was the dynamics would flip it easily to stackable snow. Wonder what your QPF is?

It's impressive that ORH at 1,000ft on December 5th, ripped off 1.14" of water in a 6-hour period at H85 temps below 0C and didn't hit 32F... all the obs are 33-34F. That's an average of 0.20"/hr pretty much at sub-freezing temps a few thousand feet above them and still couldn't hit a true 32F. I figured they'd be down at like 30F ripping snow with those precip rates.