powderfreak

Good luck SNE crew. I actually think models look the best they have in two days with that second wave. Down here at 1,500ft watching the trails turn white above 2,500ft. It’s like watching a snowstorm happen in real time but can’t quite get to it lol.

Could also be a snowpack type of deal too from driving through. It's really hard to judge annual snowfall from the snowpack as we know around here. Places that get half the actual "snowfall" can still have bigger snowpacks in that CAD region south east of Pinkham Notch. It's still "snowy" in that regard, but it's really hard to judge snowfall without actually measuring it every day. Like you drive through Tamarack's area and someone might be like holy crap, this place gets the most snowfall of anywhere around. Basically it's a "deep winter" type of place, the actual inches that come from the sky might be different.

Looks like snow started falling up high right from the get-go. Half inch at 3,000ft on Mansfield so far. Just -RN down here at 1,500ft.

Started as snow on the upper mountain, light rain down here at 1,500ft. Snow cam showing a half inch so far at 3,200ft on Mansfield.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that 1,500ft elevation zone through the northern third of New England will be snow for most of the duration... it's just a QPF issue. I think that Montpelier to you line can get into the deeper moisture. Might be too far north here.

The snow map summary... real nice period of snow at the end for SNE, IMO. A nice quarter inch to third of an inch frozen... probably widespread 1-3".

Yeah out west? I could see the precip shield sort of just fall apart out there as opposed to tracking eastward. Just have an area of precip in Catskills down to Lower Hudson Valley and adjacent CT that toys and slowly dries up as the lift leaves.

Ha, I mean I could see it either way. I could see where Ray turns to snow faster and gets clipped by decent mid level banding... or could see precip staying further southwest with the second low so that CT is a bit more robust at elevation. But given how many times he told me/us to take the under on precip because of Stein fears, even as of a week or two ago... of course I’m going to bust his balls when his tune changes to assume the higher amounts on the very first winter precip event.

The thing that’s going to help you actually looks to be the second low tracking so far south and the precip on some of these runs almost look like it collapses from NY State through CT to Long Island and SE from there.

Kev’s probably thinking more to his east/west/north/south... I’m sure he’s going with under <0.75” QPF while areas around him do twice that. Stein won’t be denied.

3km NAM had a nice parting shot for you SNE’ers. Dropped about a 1/4-1/3” frozen QPF on the way out... probably 1-3” pretty widespread.

Sounds identical to this area this morning. No snow visible until 1,300ft and then at 1,400-1,500ft arriving at work there was some snow on elevated surfaces, mulch beds, planters, that sort of stuff. It was sort of funny in that there wouldn't be any snow on the actual ground, but if a tree had fallen over there would be snow on that tree trunk. You'd only see snow on elevated stuff just off the forest floor, like stumps, downed trees, etc.

I noticed that too. Odd how it had a colder profile aloft over the South Shore (maybe due to the stronger precip at the time?), but I still think the low levels are quite marginal. But if it's ripping at -7C at 850mb you'd think that's a flip to snow. 11AM Friday and the coldest H85 temps were basically south shore?

Ha I found it funny that there are those rogue EPS members that look nothing like any other guidance. That ol' "So you're saying there's a chance" 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 shot of a bigger snow bomb.

Look at some of the EPS members... there's still a chance up here LOL.

Yeah that first wave is much further north with the precip shield.

GEFS snow probabilities have been plummeting each run since yesterday to barely anything at 12z. Yesterday’s 18z prob 3”<GEFS: 12z Today:

GGEM says we got a shot, ha.

We live and die with the ICON, lol. It gets the precip pretty far north.

Light dusting on roof tops, pumpkins and the mulch beds up here at the mountain.

Sometimes it's these narrow latitude gradients that I realize how far north we are, ha.

That seems generous but the northern fronto-bands can get it done sometimes. The EPS did expand slightly on the north side and also looked like the SE side.

Nice little wave of -SN tonight that moved through. No accums but it was good to see a period of flakes flying.

Heavy rime ice on the trees at the ski area last night and today. A few brief breaks in the sky and direct sunlight got pretty bright earlier. Rare to see the trees so white and no snow on the trails. Though I do think the upper elevations had some snow grains falling with the rime. The rime level was around 2,500ft.

Awesome! Yeah I remember for sure. Always enjoyed your posts and thoughts. So great to add another MET to the NNE crew. Looking forward to your obs and posts. We are expanding our coverage up here!