powderfreak

Pretty much every model is 2-4” here by Wednesday night.

In Alex’s and Diane’s neighborhood. Wife and I decided to take a drive. Left Vermont in sheet drizzle and 60s, entered partly sunny skies in NH and temps 75-80F on the car.

There is a part of him that definitely wants Stein to continue so he can say AWT... he’s scared about life after Stein.

DIT would lose his mind on the 6z GFS.

I find the backyard West Branch responds more to rainfall rates, than overall total. Obviously, antecedent conditions are a big factor... but rainfall rates are what can really make it go nuts. There isn't nearly as much response as there is getting 3-4" in like 12 hours or less. No matter how dry it's been, if a lot of rain falls in a short period of time, the mountain runoff that feeds these waterways is substantial.

Last year we had a similar set-up with an unseasonably warm/humid air mass ahead of a slow moving front with a cold trough digging in behind it. Halloween night had several inches fall in a short amount of time as a wave developed on the front. There was localized flooding similar to Irene in the northern Greens from a similar set-up to what we have coming. I was out of town and came back to ~4" in the stratus. This upcoming event will certainly rain hard for someone and possibly a sizeable axis... get that moisture rich humid air pumping northward and a forcing mechanism. This looks like it could even be wetter, as last year's was a narrow 3-4.5" zone with a more widespread 0.5-2.0" and models are currently more impressive than that. Someone is going to get smoked in a SW to NE axis that is modeled much further east currently than last year's. Last year though had some very impressive kinematics...severe warnings and high wind products with the FROPA, iirc.

The past two days were definitely hazy... couldn't see NH/the Whites from Mansfield on either day this weekend when sky cover normally would've allowed it.

Widespread 2-5" would be very nice. Like talking about a clipper in December.

I’d call yesterday or today peak... already seems to be heading towards more orange now than the ridiculous reds of the past couple days.

So shook. Too far west, now worried about too far east while the models have jack potted straight through your area for two days. We hate to see it.

Now that’s a real stuff. I was about to tell you to go buy a DSLR if you didn’t have one there . The view deserves a real piece of glass.

Guess it’s a matter of perspective. I’d say east looks best, ha.

Hills are on fire.

Thousands of acres of red, orange and yellow. Even us locals turn into tourists during this time. Just walking around stunned, ha.

Congrats man. You earned it.

Late day sun angle making the hills even more red this evening. Best reds in a long time. High of 81F in the valley at the ASOS... it was just an amazing, warm, breezy evening to be out wandering the mountains. Normally hiking in the late day shadow of Mansfield would be quite chilly, but that south wind was blowing pretty mild... no sharp drop in temperature with the shadow line today.

Bingo. Hazelton hiking trail comes out of the woods right there and meanders up the Upper Nosedive.

Haven’t been here since last weekend because was on the Gondi side during the week. But this route is by far the least busy hike up the hill and I like that as the dog can be off leash the whole way. We then loop down the mowed ski trails, if moving quick it can be an hour up, hour down, total time away from house about 2.5 hours. With the fading daylight it’s been harder to hike after work these days. What a day though... classic 2020... take the wife for a COVID test and then go for a hike. A normal Saturday.

Standing here right now, just enjoying this view. It’s straight magic right now as the sun goes behind Mansfield’s ridge line.

Gonna be a very extended stick season this year. The rain this week might bring ‘em down. Maybe all of October and November is just sticks?

Just hit 80F at the ASOS. Let’s see how high we can go after last week’s 24F.

That seems to be a recurring theme right now. Maybe all we need for the best bright red/orange foliage is a drought and very early freeze, ha.

Yeah it’s hot aloft. 66F at MMMV1 at the picnic tables. Given that temp, we should have no problem hitting 80F down here in the valley with normal lapse rates.

Up to 76F at MVL here at 12pm... brilliant sunshine. The vegetation has to be thoroughly confused at this point lol. We should hit 80F.