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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    That’s a big change from even 6z.
  2. powderfreak
    Definitely slower with the southern stream... should roll east. This could be a good one for Will/Ray to Dryslot.
  3. powderfreak
    I think weathermodels has some? But yeah that’s a model that you just never see anything good lol.
  4. powderfreak
    Add in 48 hours of messenger East ticks... no wiggle room up here.
  5. powderfreak
    12Z ICON moved quite a bit east. It was jackpotting N.NY.
  6. powderfreak
    Good to see everyone has seen a jackpot in the past 24 hours. Pope called it a week out.
  7. powderfreak
    Camp in your backyard... looks like ground zero, ha.
  8. powderfreak
    Congrats, wow.
  9. powderfreak
    Or Concord, NH lol.
  10. powderfreak
    Just suggestions here too from what I’ve seen. No different. No penalties. Honor box system.
  11. powderfreak
    Yeah I don’t know. Just seems like you put your money on the phase and strengthening happening later than models prog. The ensemble means are getting tweaked though by some super amped solutions, which at this point it seems hard to see this jackpotting N.NY.
  12. powderfreak
    Yeah that's generally the climo favored way to go. I can't remember the last storm to phase faster and earlier than models progged at Day 3. But plenty phase later than models show at Day 3.
  13. powderfreak
    Even the GEFS at 6z... just huge spread.
  14. powderfreak
    Individuals... still a ton of spread and a surprising amount of non-events mixed with some really jacked up ones.
  15. powderfreak
    EPS
  16. powderfreak
    Just a huge isothermal area of wet snow. 850mb and 925mb are just barely cold enough under the intense precip.
  17. powderfreak
    Decent changes at H5 between 00z GEFS and the 06z GEFS.
  18. powderfreak
    The EPS is pretty jacked, even some rain solutions up here along with straight whiffs. Mean is 10.6” snow down from 11.6” at 18z but on the whole similar.
  19. powderfreak
    EURO/UKMET/ICON blend for here please, ha. Actually ICON looks like it might rain here it’s so jacked up.
  20. powderfreak
    Synoptic storms do that, like a lottery system. Meso-scale storms like big lake effect or big upslope often don’t alter much in the lead up. No “phasing” to figure out. The features that make it snow are stationary, body of water or mountains. These synoptic events are always the best on the Forum.
  21. powderfreak
    Even digging into that run a bit.... those snow maps are over-done for sure on the eastern side (in this area). This air mass is really marginal. Over this way, even during intense precipitation rates the SFC temps are still sitting +1C. 925m is pretty warm all things considered. Reality says that's a BTV westward or Adirondacks bomber. Time for it to go a bit east, ha. What a thread the needle situation for someone.
  22. powderfreak
    We've been discussing it summer and fall, but worth noting how unstable the Euro is these days. If the GFS schools it at 72-90 hours again...we'll know for sure. It definitely has some issues going on that makes it hard to trust at all.
  23. powderfreak
    I noticed that too. The snow board here was 1/4” but a mix of grauple balls and flakes of varying sizes. Some big fat dendrites did help tick accumulation up but for the most part it was sub-optimal flakes. Looks like it's nearing 2" at 3,000ft and above.
  24. powderfreak
    I hope you jack and get the monkey off your back. My bar is low, just cover the grass again, lol. Messenger east shuffles always happen so I like to have something to work to get to 3”.
  25. powderfreak
    18z RGEM jacks metro-west, ha.
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