powderfreak

Mitch's area in S.VT looks like it might do some accumulating snow, they probably have one of the better shots in Vermont at this point. Large area of 2,000ft elevation, and precip lingers there after thicknesses lower enough. Could see Mitchy with a coating to 2" tomorrow morning.

Now that's a massive dumpster fire.

0.40” so far this morning. A wet day.

Love this setting. Great chilly, sheltered type of look with evening glow cranking on the uphill rise.

That’s the look here, just a bit above normal and good precipitation. Comfy winter recreation temps and active.

Sounds like winter, one gives 18” one gives 8”. Actual is probably in the middle.

Another good short term QPF battle between ECMWF and GFS... some decent differences in SNE between the two models.

73F and sunny but gusting 30+ out of the south.

I agree. Those type of comedies are never as good as the first one. They hit, they are hilarious then you move on. Super Troopers didn’t need a second one either. So many funny cult comedies are tried again and just can’t hit the ridiculousness of the first one...when you walk out of a theater like “I have no idea what I just watched but it was pretty damn funny.”

Yeah gonna need that sketch. Can even find where I live along the river between town and mountain, ha.

Yeah like 6z run this morning went nuts with snow. I still even with that exact QPF and lift doubt that would’ve played out like that. Just a bit too snow happy on the maps. I still think it would’ve been much more elevation dependent than the crass snow progs look. The 12km NAM doesn’t see elevation lol. Even verbatim that outlook would be peaks white, mid-slope/valleys wet. Time for some picnic table toppers.

I actually think in this area it might finally be getting the right idea... several inches on Mansfield and the Spine above 2500-3000ft. This big widespread swaths of snow were lol here... that map is what it should look like just dotting the peaks.

Where ever that photo from May was taken of your buddy servicing the wind farm seems like a good place to start lol.

Find some plateau up there at 2,500ft and do some riding around lol. 925mb still is extremely marginal, I think you’d want at least 2000ft or more in elevation... what’s the elevation around Jackman? That’s where I think the best shot at CCB snows might be.

See! We always knew that Whitefield was the snowiest spot out of the Jackman, Eustis, Rangley, Berlin axis, haha.

Damn bear is back. Raided the trash again after a nice 4 week hiatus and took a dump right under our bedroom window lol. Probably just strolling around outside the wall while we sleep.

Yeah it’s been a bad model. 12 hours ago (1 run of the old Euro) it had a 990-something cyclone plowing into PWM with strong conveyor belts. Forky’s animation is hilarious for the KING.

I know it’s splitting hairs but the 00z ECM was by far the most amped, 998mb over PWM...more so than yesterday’s runs. The 12z GFS is really weak out East with SLP, but still very good drink for much of the forum. I’m leaning that way for sure.

Yeah this system is another very wet one when you factor in the stalled boundary and frontogenic forcing along that, then the follow up coastal low. Plenty of QPF. The stalled boundary even looks like it might temporarily become a warm front going back the other way for a time in NNE ahead of the surface low.

You’re still getting a lot of rain. You keep trying to sell rain in your area but it’s coming. Stein’s done.

Yeah the Euro and NAM bias of being slow and amped getting corrected quickly. Ride the GFS these days. It’s been on that for days now. Go East young man. Crazy how good the GFS has been the past 4-6 weeks, have to toss the Euro these days. GFS has gone wide right of the Cape past two runs. Here’s 6z:

Yeah just dress the kids at home if it’s under 20 minutes or so. It is another world of cold/wind in the northern mountains at least to me.

In Maryland climate? LOL. J/k, sort of. Just wait till you are booting your family up in a parking lot at Wildcat/Bretton Woods on a winter morning next to Alex’s thermometer that just hit -25F, ha. Or while the wind threatens to rip your car door off and your kid just went rolling through the base like a tumbleweed. It’s going to be a big deal in the cold, windy northern mountains. It can be really, really unpleasant to try and get ready in the lot.

That’s why you want to sell season passes, lol. Day tickets people expect something that day... season pass holders just go home without complaining.

Oh there’s no way it snows below 1500ft IMO, not a chance unless it’s like May 11th last year when it was ripping 0.20”/hr in the MVL bucket and after 4 hours of that type of rates it dynamically cooled to paste down low. I like 3,000ft and higher right now for anything real fun. 925mb is very marginal throughout on all models. Even in heaviest precip that layer is only barely touching 0C on Euro/GFS. GGEM keeps it like +1C to +2C. Need to see a well defined CCB develop for any chance at snow under 3kft.