powderfreak

You likely have colder/drier SFC air trying to feed in underneath from that stout high pressure. It works really well in SWFE but that cold/dry drain from Maine down the coastal plain could cause some drier air underneath I guess too.

I'll gladly take anyone's 8-12" if they are disappointed. Its still 60 hours out on the models before a flake flies in New England too. That's a long time still.

I wouldn't look at the actual amounts to the decimal, ha. It's just a general look to the model... the quick and dirty.

lol the 9.3" vs. 8.0" I guess. Seems like it's just showing widespread 8-12".

ICON totals.

It’s interesting you liked that look a lot more than yesterday’s 12z EURO that was losing wiggle room, ha.

ALB gets crushed on that run. Deform delight. Mid-levels would be like ALB-Dendrite-Dryslot.

It's unfortunate for sure . Could've been a monster from central PA up through NY and NNE.

There are several NAM looking members in there. It’s a very long shot but not completely dead north of the Mass border.

It was AOL on dial up all the way. You’ve got mail.

Light snow almost like a frozen mist has at least whitened surfaces again at 1500ft.

You going with the high pressure being well over done and block weaker?

I knew it was coming at some point. While some other models only have advisory snows north of the Pike lol.

I get what you're doing, but this absolute monster high to the N/NE as the "whole set up" screams the opposite of what you say, ha.

How the hell is TAN losing it's wiggle room on that run? lol. You're like smack in the middle of the EURO snow prog.

Modeled jacks over ALB still make me tingle even 15 years after living there, ha. Weird. But man from here to you Dryslot that thing runs into a brick wall.

Awesome! I've always wanted to tele. One of the things I hope to do at some point.

Still a decent amount of time if that thing is a real beast down south. 06z EPS had more members getting NNE involved.

Split that distance and we are talking, ha. There’s just enough completely jacked ECM individual ensembles with like widespread 1”+ NNE to keep an eye on it north of RT 2.

What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal.

It hit me at 18z just how far out the event is... I don’t expect a north trend but not having the system even getting started at the end of the 84 hour model runs is a very long time in model world. The shortwave could be a beast, or it could be a false alarm... the block could be massive or it could be over estimated. There’s a lot of time left in this. The big ones can have great lead time but I’ve personally seen plenty of modeled huge NNE synoptic storms go sideways at this lead time. Makes me think something could change in any direction.

The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes. Get that progged block to weaken a bit...

That trough axis does look like it would want to amp up. Damn -NAO. I’m sure there’ll be a zonked NAM run over like BOS at some point though lol.

Definitely need a few more ticks north, ha. Still time though.

Need to drop some nukes on that block, so it implodes and let’s this storm take its rightful course to CAR, lol.