powderfreak

Anyone have that SUNY Stony Brook frontogenesis page bookmarked? I know I have it but can’t see to find it. Had the H7 fronto maps from GFS/NAM.

Yeah NAM 12km you responded to had a lot of SE posts but it s not that far off 12z. I think the fear was 18z would be SYR BTV BML, lol. It hit you good. Anything not north of 12z was a win for the forum.

3km NAM Kuchie Seems reasonable.

Weenie map.

ALB to BGM just destroyed.

It’s weird how it did increase on the north side in CNE/NNE but didn’t in Northern Mass.

QPF

Ha, I know you all think I’m trying to steal ALL of your snow. I just want 3”. Cover the grass blades back up and uniform white. Anything to whiten up the crusty left-overs.

Let’s do this trend for the next 36 hours. Huge jump from 00z.

The trick is having the low not jump to that convection and hang on near the NJ coastline for as long as possible.

That ACK track was my climo favorite growing up in E.NY. What a classic track that is.

GGEM was the furthest north at 00z, so makes sense. 00z already crushed Dendrite/Lakes Region to Dryslot, so if that went more north, yikes.

Be interesting to see the other models. The NAM/ICON/GFS all made substantial NW ticks at 12z. RGEM was decently NW but not completely crazy. The other models when toggling from 6z to 12z were fairly substantial. Makes you wonder what data they got in. It's almost like they kept the low more tucked into the mid-Atlantic coast for longer before going east... didn't get sucked east into that convective blob like previously. RGEM went over Nantucket instead of more like the Benchmark from 6z to 12z.

I get it, but that block and high was pretty stout. The high seems to be slightly more NE and a couple MB weaker with each model run.

Can see why BOX threw up Watches for the RT 2 corridor in mid-swing there at 10am... saw the NAM and REGGIE and watches popped up in N.Mass.

Yeah we still have 36 hours to go. Would like to see another shift at 18/00z and maybe we can grab a few inches. That'd be a huge win after watching this crushed south for days and days. GFS.

RGEM map I haven't seen posted, just for the posterity.

Yeah I guess I sort of lumped those two things together. The high plays off the block, right?

Props to you if this is more NW... I mean, still a good 36 hours to go. If that high was over-played. I was banking on the high even becoming stronger as we get closer in.

NAM Kuchie... looks like the most likely option.

Damn dude. Sending some vibes your way. I kept thinking about how good this should be for Moosup and wondering where you were. Call it the Ginxy Storm.

I mean if you want to look at negatives, I still think SFC dry air wall seeping in from Maine like a cold air tuck will limit ratios somewhere near there. The arms of those snowflakes will be shrinking on arrival into the lower few thousand feet, IMO. It’ll be a battle somewhere between that high to the N/NE and the incoming mid-levels.

It makes sense...Phin will gradually leave that leave that feeling behind with more time up north. But man it is neurotic in some of those threads, lol.

I dunno, I think the cut-off is going to be pretty sharp wherever it happens. Location of the gradient can easily change, but with that stout high to the north and a lot of cold/dry surface air lodged in the lowest few thousand feet, I think synoptically it makes sense that it cuts off pretty quickly on the north side. I've got plenty of experience, lol. You get those half evaporated small dry flakes that see their arms shrunk in the lowest few thousand feet while it's ripping good flakes up at 4,000ft+. That's a pretty stout surface high. Mid-level lift will be constantly fighting on the northern side with dry air trying to bleed in from the north. Best guess is there's a strong band somewhere near the northern gradient and then north of that band totals just plummet. Where that is TBD.

That's amazing! Ha, went right up to the hat and marked it. "It's mine now!"