powderfreak

That’s the best run of the whole lot for you I think. That just sort of feeds moisture on a pivot from east to northeast flow.

Ha.

Here’s your fix... first 12z run in the bag.

True. Large investment to get to the snow, I get the desire to just get it out of the way to make sure your money was well spent LOL. I could see that adding some extra desire to get 'er done. "I didn't move to the middle of no where because I liked the vibe in Berlin."

I think it’s about time to lock the Euro in. It’s been pretty steady for 24 hours.

6z REGGIE The 6z Canadian guidance is a late-bloomer on both their mesoscale products. The spread in ensembles is still insane at this time too.

Convection with this and does that rob moisture or owe to latent heat release? Just trying to think of the little things that pop up for discussion on approach, ha.

Can always count on the HRRR to keep the western folks chasing the worm on the hook around the pond.

DIT absolutely hates uncertainty. With a burning passion, you can tell he hates uncertainty or probabilities...wants to be told one way or the other, yes or no. Not maybe.

What a crushing along the coastal plain in NNE and back towards ORH hills.

Not as sharp at 500mb as it hits the coast. Will be interesting to see if it recovers. Looks even a little east of the GFS?

Early look is it might go east. Its definitely not going west based on 500mb compared to 12z.

Ha, I bet. It's palpable but you'll figure it out, it snows when it wants to snow and in the end it'll be more than most people. But you'll also "lose" and others will get more at times, no matter how much we want to jackpot all the time. In the end, the inches accumulated tell the story though.

Ha, I think it'll be fun to compare your attitude now vs. like 3-4 years from now. In a few years you'll be like "yeah, looks like it might snow some, we'll see but it usually does" instead of swinging from run to run. With that said, I still think there's a real chance if that southern stream slows down any further you get the 18z NAM solution where it stays separated until the very last minute and then it's too late. You want to see this hold steady and hold hard at 00z/06z tomorrow. I know some in SNE may not feel the same way but I always want to risk being on the rain/snow line instead of the other way around. Gives you wiggle room east. Too many of us have seen those HRRR ticks east (so much so they have a name "Messenger Shuffle") when the poster Messenger on Cape Cod always would find the actual low pressure buoy readings going northeast of where models had it, LOL.

It was cleared up yesterday. If the off-hour runs are good, then they are all equal skill. If they are bad runs, then they are not as good as the skill of the 00/12z cycles.

Yeah that's a big shift on the early 18z models.

18z ICON looks like it's decently further SE than it's 12z run. Less phased and a bit weaker. Still a hit for the immediate coast though and blows up in Maine.

It does fit the trend of the southern stream continuing to slow down... there's still a lot of time left. Could be big or a nothing burger still.

Great hit there.

Just you wait lol. You won’t be a full fledged NNE member until you watch it slowly do the Messenger shuffle.

Just laying a weenie right over SNE.

That’s a big change from even 6z.

Definitely slower with the southern stream... should roll east. This could be a good one for Will/Ray to Dryslot.

I think weathermodels has some? But yeah that’s a model that you just never see anything good lol.