powderfreak

I can think of a time pretty much every single winter when a lower snowfall place around the coastal plain, SNE, mid-Atlantic had more snow on the ground at some point. 2009-10, Inner city Baltimore had more on the ground than most of NNE a couple times, 2010-11 Ginxy had more snow on his shed roof for all of January than most of NNE (I think spots in CT had the same depth as Mansfield stake at one point in January), 2013-14 the Leon years PHL had more in Jan I think than Adirondacks and Greens, Feb 15 had more on ground at Mass beaches than NNE hills, 15-16 there were times following storms when CT had more, etc. Its definitely more years than not that after a big storm or series of storms that a much lower snow climo spot has more depth.

It actually happens pretty frequently when they get big storms down there. Not crazy at all.

Bread and butter falling.

That’s awesome. 1.5” so far up here from the last 90 minutes or so. Hoping for 3” ha.

1.5” at home. Almost seems like more here than base of mountain.

J.Spin getting crushed now.

That ramped up fast. 30dbz over town.

Just started dumping huge flakes. A quick quarter to half inch from the size of the flakes.

What a time to be alive.

Ahhh ok. I think we are talking past each other. The only reason those higher res models showed the potential is because they were way too wet, but in this case because of the high ratios it looks like it's working out. The HREF looks like it must operate on some other algorithm instead of 10:1 snowfall... because the QPF looks more like the Global model QPF... but it has higher ratio snowfall. Interesting, I thought that would default to 10:1. Anyway, not to clutter up the thread with this. Basically anytime ratios are 20:1 or higher you'll get a positive bust. That band is still incredible.

The only reason you liked the HREF and NAM is because they had higher snowfall maps further inland. The EURO H7 track doesn't look bad for banding where you are discussing. The globals don't look nearly as bad as you seem to say. I'm going back through the past 5 runs of everything. We'll see in the post-mortem but I really think you are just thrown off by the snow/qpf maps

Awesome. So you get a SNINCR 1 for anything over 0.5"? For some reason I thought you had to get to 1" or more to get that. And 2" or more to get the 2, etc. I just saw the depth go from 6 to 7 and then 7 to 8.

BDL has to have more than that, right? They've had at least a couple hours reported of SNICR 1.

That is just filthy to have 35-40dbz showing up on the 0.5 degree scan. That's legit, someone has to be seeing 3"/hr in that SW of BOS.

Save the QPF maps and compare tomorrow. You are experiencing what I often see on the NW flank. Get 9” on 0.30” water. Their snow maps are right for the wrong reason, but that’s hard to process for sure.

But it was dropping like 0.25” QPF per hour. That’s not even close to happening.

Nice! Looks like classic cotton candy. Makes me think the models hit the QPF just right. Probably a situation where the jacked models’ snowfall is correct but for the wrong reason, and the global model QPF is correct but snow map’s wrong because of 10:1.

Not if the ratios are 20:1 or higher like many are saying. Take the 10:1 snow maps and double them and it looks pretty good.

You guys are crushing it with the pics in this one... love it. Wonder what @Ginx snewx has, looks like he should be getting wrecked.

Yeah I’d lean a bit north of guidance in the means. Maybe that cold really presses in but plenty of times those modify a little bit.

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going. It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff. Keeps things looking great. We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado. Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely. If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high. That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though. Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer. Just keep throwing a little snow on top.

I think many in SNE might disagree with that, lol. We are in the sweet spot now... have a snowpack and just need a few inches every 2-3 days. Those squally bursts lead to some fun snowy periods. Hopefully get another one this evening. Just pile up the pillows on everything.

The scary part of all the avalanche deaths out west is that many of them, like the one on Mount Washington recently, are mostly very experienced people and/or locals with a great degree of knowledge. These summaries of each death are fascinating and yet terrifying... Kurt and his partner read the avalanche forecast for that day and were very familiar with the area, having skied there for many years. They took 2 previous runs in the backcountry using the 9990 chairlift at PCMR for access. Their first and second runs were just south of Cone Head in the Owen's Line area. Both runs are about 0.6 miles to the south of the 9990 chairlift. They did not see any avalanches, cracking, collapsing, or other signs of unstable snow. For their last run in the backcountry, they rode the 9990 chairlift, exited the resort through a gate, and entered the backcountry to ascend Square Top, a peak about 0.5 miles to the north. At approximately 3 p.m., they descended a ridge known as "Square Top Sneak." Approximately 2/3 of the way down the ridge, they stopped to discuss where to go next, as marked in the photo below. Kurt wanted to descend a relatively short 37 degree slope below them, and his partner did not. His partner wanted to stay on the ridge for the final portion of his run. The pair decided that the partner would wait and watch Kurt while he descended before skiing an alternate route down the ridge and and regrouping below. The avalanche occurred just as Kurt entered the slope before he had a chance to turn downhill. He was caught, carried, and almost fully buried in the avalanche. His partner witnessed the avalanche and determined it was too dangerous to enter the avalanche path from the top of the slide. He then descended the ridge aiming to enter the avalanche path at the point where he last saw Kurt. He put climbing skins on his skis after reaching the debris, not knowing if he'd have to go uphill or downhill to reach Kurt. At 3:20 p.m., the partner called PCMR Ski Patrol and began a transceiver search. His partner assumed Kurt was downhill and soon acquired the signal from Kurt's transceiver with an indicated range of 60 meters. As he got closer to Kurt's location, he spotted part of a ski boot sticking out of the avalanche debris and began digging. Kurt was found on his right side with his head upslope buried 3-4 feet deep. The partner uncovered Kurt's face and was able to give rescue breaths. Before the partner could move Kurt to begin CPR, he had to dig much deeper because Kurt's right arm was stuck deeper in the snow attached to a ski pole with a wrist strap. The partner contacted the PCMR Ski Patrol during the process and began CPR at 3:40 p.m. The partner noted being tired before they began their descent of Square Top. Searching, digging, and performing rescue breaths/CPR for 30-45 minutes left him exhausted. PCMR Ski Patrol and the Summit County Sheriff's Office asked him to leave the scene so that they could begin recovery operations. Because much of the terrain had not avalanched, PCMR Ski Patrol and the Summit County Sheriff's Office determined that avalanche mitigation was needed to reach the accident site safely. Due to the encroaching darkness, the recovery mission was suspended until Sunday, January 31. On Sunday morning, the Department of Public Safety (DPS) and PCMR Ski Patrol conducted an avalanche mitigation mission using explosives deployed from a helicopter. Three additional large slides were released on the slope adjacent to the avalanche accident. Following this mitigation work, rescue personnel from the Summit County Sheriff's Office recovered the victim from the avalanche site. There were no obvious signs of significant trauma. The burial site. The victim's head was buried approximately 3-4 feet deep.

People have been dying at an alarming rate across the West in avalanches. The avie conditions are scary. That one just outside of Vail boundary that killed someone a day or two ago was massive. The size of that thing was terrifying, like one of those avalanches where you just have no shot at survival as soon as it breaks. Then this one killed a local skier just outside of Park City's boundary less than a week ago. Park City was forced to close their boundary gates due to too many avalanche deaths, which is extremely rare due to it accessing National Forest I believe.

I'd go 4-8" where you are too. Feel like 4" seems like a decent bet on the low end.