I mean they use the same models as everyone else does, we saw the large spread. 48 hours ago there was definitely a higher impact chance.
I still think “over-warn” in these cases is better than getting caught with pants down. Especially in multi-faceted events where you can have flooding, surge, wind, tornados, etc.
And it was a Sunday so it’s not like all schools and businesses closed up for 1-2” of snow like when a nor’easter whiffs on a Tuesday in December. There really was not much risk here that I see in over-warning. Boy cried wolf syndrome doesn’t seem to be a thing because the next time people will take it seriously too it seems… at least history has shown over-warned events don’t lead to less preparation next time it seems in any type of weather.