powderfreak

It’s a different type of event when the Taunton crew isn’t doing that . Good to see SE Mass feeling it.

A very cold January evening in Vermont... but looking idyllic as ever. Took the long way home from Burlington this evening with the wife. It didn't disappoint. -1/-15 right now.

I’ll disagree in that most posts I read are just discussing model trends. It is what it is. Still a long way to go with 48+ hours out. No one should be completely confident on any solution… but folks will watch and comment on how things are trending. If it was moving west towards crushing ALB right now, the discussion would be if folks turn to rain…and you’d likely wonder why everyone is worried about an amped solution. You have an ability to stay focused on it snowing and will live or die on that hill…which is what makes this forum entertaining and fun.

Ha I have zero horse in the race but we go over this once in a while… when you seem to just read the model trends wrong. Most model pages allow an easy toggle. It doesn’t mean anyone who says the RGEM ticked east means they think you won’t get snow. It just means it ticked east . Its an 84 hour 18z RGEM run. Who cares.

At the top of model graphics they have writing that tells you what the map is showing and when.

You all Ninja’d me! Impressive. DIT pounding beers.

Here’s the last two runs. If that’s a huge jump NW you are drunker than you think. Top is old, bottom is new.

It’s the GGEM family. Better at simulating hockey games than weather?

Ha what a model mean. Next run it’ll have snow to ALB.

Lol for SE Mass. White pines just destroyed by wind and snow.

Looks like a homeless encampment while his kid measures snow on the tents.

I’m driving to Scooter’s house, ha. Gonna see a tent set up in his backyard with me in full arctic camping gear.

Up to 3 whole Fahrenheit’s at 12:30pm at MVL ASOS. This month has been legit. Heating bill will be unreal (but not fake unfortunately).

Haha maybe add an inch between friends?

Yeah I'd think it ends up more like KBED... near where Ray and Will live on that axis. But it's still so early. Maybe within 48 hours we can get a better picture. I just looked at the GEFS and they've been incredibly consistent in the means. KBED QPF is 0.50" and last 3 runs are 0.46", 0.50", 0.52". 4 runs back was 0.74". But for 4 cycles it looks almost identical on the QPF progs to be honest. Pretty decent consistency.

The deform likes to find the QPF gradient on the models or be just west of it... so I'd agree with that.

GEFS... some members are bigger back to NY State and there are a fair amount of clean whiffs to create this mean.

When you first move north, you keep that coastal synoptic storm mentality that’s climatology for most of the urban/suburban population centers. Need the larger setups to work out or it won’t snow. That’s when you start looking for members of the SREFS or various ensembles. Another decade later and you watch it like you’d watch a close sporting event/game, even if they aren’t your favorite teams.

It's true. When the 6-8"+ zone is so big, places can afford movement and still get a healthy snow. Maybe the jackpot and higher level amounts shift around, but there's a large swath of impactful snows... so its moving into a territory where many folks can rest assured of at least a solid snowstorm even if it falls apart in one direction or another.

It's certainly a long way to go in model land. The over confidence in a solution develops in these systems that are tracked from Day 7-10 when you have seen days of runs (but yet it's still days away). Does the jackpot zone remain the same for the final 4 days of model runs? That's hard to do, but the biggies sometimes follow the consistent pattern. It's hard to tell how this plays out.

That's what I've taken away from it in the North Country too. The axis has become more WSW to ENE instead of SSW to NNE directions.

Thanks guys! I (obviously) don't know population numbers that well, but damn. That's an incredible amount of people.

The population affected is massive there. I mean 15 million people easy in that axis? I have no idea to be honest but that's as good a run as it gets for a big ticket shut down event for a LOT of humans.

What a classic I-95 corridor, big city snowstorm on the EPS. 50-member mean just smoking the coastal plain and high population areas from PHL to NYC to HFD to PVD to ORH to BOS to PWM. Just a classic big deal impact axis there. KU style and high population areas affected.

Great midweek afternoon on the hill. If there's one big difference from last winter, it's that midweek feels like midweek again. When people need to physically report to work and school Monday through Friday, it definitely is a different dynamic. Last winter was steady crowd levels 7 days a week, no real ebb or flow. This season it's big weekends and light volume Monday through Friday.