powderfreak

Where do you see cool and BN on that chart Ginxy just posted? Theres literally a climo line on them for easy reference. Almost every day looks to average AN on that prog.

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric. Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me. Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

Anything to avoid the highs in the 50-65F range… do 65-85F as long as possible and then jump straight to 40s/20s .

Let’s extend the shorts wearing season as long as possible… above normal run sounds fantastic right now. These nights with 12-hours of 50s followed by a spike into the mid-70s in the afternoon are excellent top-10 contenders.

To continue with the theme of images, here's the evening's last light before the shadows fully cover the valley here.... I've never really seen the Stowe Community Church steeple stand out like that before. Just like covered bridges, there is very little that is more "New England" than an old white steeple church anchoring a village in a valley (to me). That steeple is on one of the oldest non-denominational churches in the country. Weenie stat is the top elevation of the steeple is like 928 feet for reference... the Worecester Range in the background is over 3,600ft. The town of Stowe stretches through all of this. Plenty of topographical relief for fake cold to settle in.... currently 55F after a high of 76F.

Wow dude! Those are great shots, seems close and just chilling. Love that.

Thats the same thought I had, ha. They are later than a drought stressed Stein summer. Shocking? I just looked through my Instagram feed and it seems pretty normal to past mid-September’s. Hard to tell, it’s just general early color. It becomes more apparent if early or late in the beginning of October.

Yeah I agree with you fully. Many times after an event folks are like “wtf just happened?” And in fact it was modeled very well, we just chose not to believe it. Like a high wind event where the 10-m wind progs show 60-70mph gusts but we see that in a lot of events that never materialize…. Until that one event levels forests and knocks out power for a week. Then when folks are like that was poorly modeled, someone will have the ECMWF surface wind progs showing devastation from 5 days out. We just mentally toss those so often that one will slip through. Same with big ice… how many random model ice maps of 1-3” do we see in a winter on those vendor maps with numbers like 1.53” and 2.09” ice dotting the stations? Plenty. One of them will be correct sometime .

Yeah I thought models had big rains of half a foot for widespread areas well in advance. I think the bigger thing is people see it on models and are like “nah it really doesn’t think 6-8 inches falls widespread, it’ll be localized to convection.”

What does the NY Post say though? Cat 5 into Islip?

Yeah in talking about late frost/freezes in the NNE thread, I saw several 1970s years listed as record late 32s for some of the colder Adirondack and NE VT coop spots. Definitely had to have some warmer autumns back then. Didn't snow in October either and those 1970s winters were pretty big after warmth, ha.

Off Topic but I had never heard of the Ig Nobel Prizes... satirical awards but real life studies. This one is fantastic. TRANSPORTATION PRIZE: Robin Radcliffe, Mark Jago, Peter Morkel, Estelle Morkel, Pierre du Preez, Piet Beytell, Birgit Kotting, Bakker Manuel, Jan Hendrik du Preez, Michele Miller, Julia Felippe, Stephen Parry, and Robin Gleed, for determining by experiment whether it is safer to transport an airborne rhinoceros upside-down or horizontally. Turns out the rhinos are better off upside down. "I think the reason for that is, when a rhino is on its side, you have positional effects of blood flow. So in other words, the lower parts of the lung are getting lots of blood flow for gas exchange, but the upper part of the lung, just because of gravity, is not getting perfused well, so when a rhino is hanging upside down, it's basically like it's standing upside up; the lung is equally perfused. "We've also seen that rhinos that are on their side too long, or on their sternum, especially - they get muscle damage, they get myopathy, because they're so heavy. And there's no pressure on their legs, other than the sense of the strap around their ankle," Robin explained. You learn something new every day .

Actually I pulled the ASOS numbers... of course the ASOS only started in 1996. The later October dates in the BTV dataset appear to be from a few years in the 1970s. But since 1996 the latest 32F has been September 26, 2015. One would imagine had it been there longer though you'd have seen some October dates show up.

Not sure on frost, the data BTV keeps is "freeze" climatology... but even the notorious cold pockets like Lake Placid and Saranac Lake are decently into October for record late. Like the mean first freeze at Saranac Lake is September 10th (so already passed) but record early is August 20 and late is October 13. So there's a pretty wide range of possibilities there it seems. Island Pond, VT is similar first/last wide range.... late August to mid-October with a mean in mid-September. Again that's 32F freeze climo, not necessarily frost which can happen in the mid-30s. I would assume those cold spots could be comparable to HIE, so likely late record 32F maybe in that October 5-15 range?

What a day. Boring weather is Top 10 weather. Widespread low to mid 70s for all with dews upper 40s north to low 50s south. September at its finest.

Blue Jays lost to the Orioles too. That's insulting to the Yanks given the past couple series. Blue Jays just smoked that four game series and then lose to Baltimore. 162, anything can happen.

Haha, all joking aside though, you can tell we are seriously fighting climo now if that graphic is a torch. It was only 2-3 weeks ago where a “torch” would be 10F higher and the numbers that start with 8 would start with 9. My biggest take away is how fast we went from multiple days of 90-95F at BDL being a torch to now 80-85F is it. Another step down and 70-75F will be a torch.

I was just looking at those temps with a 5-7F reduction from BDL to NE hills and thinking that’s damn near perfect weather. 10 days of highs mainly in the 70s outside the valley bottom?

Full on winter-like upslope day at Mansfield. Gusty NW winds had the Gondola running on reduced speed all day, about 0.30” water compared to less than a tenth in town, and temps in the mid-50s base area. Mark it down, today was the first day I felt “cold” in a while … having to warm up inside from time to time. Car had 55F leaving the Mansfield lot.

Need beer to warm up.

It is frigid. First day shivering a bit at the Mtn, wore shorts lol. 56F and 0.27” so far today at 1500ft and strong NW winds. Feels like a cold 56F too.

Today is definitely a cold season type of day.... gusty NW winds, upslope sheet rains and misery mist, and temp is 57F at the base area at 1,500ft. Has that appeal of an upslope cold season day.

COVID just destroying the team.

No his theft ring is when your favorite tree disappears from your yard in the middle of the night.

Some good cloud viewing today in the moist, convective environment. Evening glow and TCU.