powderfreak

Yeah if this is before the synoptic wave moves through would be nice.

If anything the EPS is further north than 6z on the 12z run. Keeps Phin and I barely in the southern snow zone in the mean... but definitely more NW members keeping the main snow axis in the St Lawrence River Valley.

And N.VT feels snowy again in comparison! . That is pretty rough but at least out there if it doesn't snow it's not like brutal cold and the sun is probably out 98% of the time. Probably like a month of skiing like VT gets in the spring.

It's like Will Ferrell in Blades of Glory when he's hammered drunk doing the kids' ice show wearing a costume, all depressed, crushing kid's dreams and rambling until he pukes.

Ha right, you can use any perspective to shape your mindset. I mean can also pull up photos of like Lake Tahoe's big storms earlier this season and be like "wow, it sucks where we live, just never snows and it's all just nuisance level snowfall." Tippy can probably explain the psychoanalyst side better .

Slurring on the morning snow report, mumbling and rambling incoherently haha.

I just pull up the daily snow tally for the mountain for 2015-2016 and everything is much better in the world. Once broken enough you don't get it back, ha.

Haha it’s true too. Can find positives in anything if you look at it. My wife hates it… like I’m glad the flat tire hit in a beautiful scenic part of the road honey… “at least we get to enjoy this view for a while!” Some people have it, some don’t.

Ha we get snow on that run, GEFS look good. High probs for 6+… what more can we ask?

We were chatting about 2018-19 earlier this morning at the ski area and man, what a monster snowpack winter for the mountains. Just deep from November onward. Only 5 more feet on the ground on this date a few years ago.

Yeah I thought that was sort of a win for the GFS. The EURO was trying to bring a monster slug of 1" QPF (like the NAM) in 6 hours all the way into your area and central Mass on a couple of those runs. It even had a run with like 0.40" QPF back here.

I'm super impressed at the departures up here. It's seemed like a lot of radiational cooling nights but the fact that well-mixed BTV has the largest temperature departure up here shows that it was some legit arctic air masses. January departures so far of BTV at -6.6F and MVL at -5.9F. Burlington trying to nudge closer to a -7F monthly is insane given that sites warm tendencies.

Hit -10F and then rose to a balmy -7F.

I think it would be difficult to hold onto long term icing except in a very narrow zone... the boundary needs to stall out and I'd think the depth of the cold would try to keep getting deeper north of the boundary pushing p-type to sleet. Rain, briefer ZR, then a bunch of sleet seems like it would be the path except for maybe a narrow battle ground?

6z GEFS snow probabilities. What a winter for synoptic snows in Buffalo area, they are pegged for like 10-18” again on some of these runs.

BTV is -6.6 for the month! That is incredible for the Champlain Valley, especially at a site that has been warm in many recent years this decade. The average temperature in this January has been 14.3F in Burlington, the large valley market brings numbers.. The North Country has been cold.

Another sub-zero evening for heating interests in town. -4F at MVL and the closest station. This has been one cold January.

Some may laugh, but anytime someone in the forum gets smoked it's a good thing. Misery doesn't love company. Good people are easy to root for. Hopefully there's a way we can get snow and down south can get an ice storm or flash freeze ending as snow to keep the wintry vibe going region wide. We watch this one... long way to go and getting back to weather, I still worry the wave amps up and spreads mixed precip/rain further north than the current mid-range model runs. The next 48 hours should give us a better picture but still 84 hours until any overrunning precip approaches New England from the NW.

Lol, this is the aftermath of every SNE coastal… the confidence and wondering if they want to allow another area the right to get a snowfall. Taking fun shots at posters like Phin, myself or JSpin. Kings sitting on thrones at the top of their driveway piles, still not sure if they want to watch the village peasants have any fun .

It’s easier to believe in a storm if you don’t see the model runs . Mo’ data mo’ problems.

Yeah and the EPS came in with us on the southern side of it... the snow axis in the means is definitely north and up the St Lawrence Valley.

Way out in time but you don’t get this model consistency out of a coastal storm… it’s actually fairly ridiculous how clustered the 12z runs are. It’ll change but wild too see *that* much consistency. There will be some precip event in the northeast late week. GFS/EURO/GGEM/ICON even onboard.

Hopefully it holds at least in the colder trends... sometimes I feel like we see these mid-range burps where the boundary presses a lot further south and then in the end the system essentially resembles a cutter even up here. I mean it was a straight St Lawrence Valley rainer at day 7-10. We are getting some sag now but how much of it is real is the question and at Day 2-3 is it congrats interior Ontario lol.

The ECMWF definitely has had some rough times this winter which is sad to see from the King.

We watch. With coastals the risk is always too far east... with these it's that it turns into a cutter like it was modeled a few days ago. We've had some big snows in the past decade though from sagging frontal boundaries that get just far enough and then have a wave ride along them after a bunch of overrunning mixed precip.