powderfreak

He’s trolling all of us lol. Despite having ample poster coverage from this area to Phin/Alex to you… refuses to believe it. Just like when his snow melts he tries to melt everyone else’s . I think of “average” as about a 7-10 day period anyway. Facebook reminds me of photos from past years every day and some are earlier than this year and some are later. No idea how a date would be put on it. This was 2013 or 14 on this date. Looks identical to now. The 2008 photos looked later. Last year was solidly earlier.

“Be glad you don’t live here.” A full weekend of rain, maybe 3 days of rain? Steady synoptic rain today all day long.

Yeah RT 100 on the whole between Killington to Mad River Valley to Waterbury to Stowe is like the apex of foliage traffic up here. And very few roads going east west in that stretch due to terrain aside from the Waterbury area.

Yes. Big difference between Friday afternoon through Sunday and Mon-Thur. Friday afternoon is check-in time, ha. Sunday is check-out. I’d bet the same is true over in NH on like the Kanc and other scenic routes with substantially more weekend traffic vs a Tuesday. Saturday has to be the absolute worst day of the week.

It’s definitely muted but I actually think the clouds and rain will add some saturation this weekend. Still a week to 10 days away from peak. Traffic this afternoon in these parts was like I-93 in the Boston area. The leaf peepers can have some special moves… saw a right turn blinker but quick left turn maneuver today. That’s always fun for some chaos.

Yeah I guess it works, never thought about it like that. I thought it was “your post is so weird that I’m confused because I don’t see that in the data.” But the weenie is also aimed at the original poster, so I can see it both ways. I truly always thought the confused was “I’m confused by the crap you’re making up” .

So when we put a laughing emoji it’s the poster who is laughing, not the reader? I always thought it was “I found that funny” not “you found that funny.”

Have had a lot of that lately here too. Normally this time of year we get some of those days with monster 40 to even 45 degree diurnal swings. Where it's like 30F in the morning and 70F in the afternoon... the temperature is always either going upward or downward during the day, never steady. This month has been mild minimums but the daytimes aren't really high either. Just like normal high temps but well above normal minimum temps. Low diurnal spreads.

What a miserable weekend coming in. The 3km NAM pretty much rains or has showers most of the time both days.

I guess I was more thinking lawns were dead last summer by August in drought… ground vegetation wilted not long after that, and then I’d figure the trees cut their losses for the year early and went dormant. What was the drought situation in Great Lakes last summer? Similar to parts of Northeast? Obviously there are a lot of factors, I guess my point was there are extenuating factors but I probably have better photo documentation than most folks and it happens to end within a general 7-10 day period yearly. Theres much more variation on the front end of fall foliage, but even in the warmest years it hits a point where it falls off a cliff and changes extremely rapidly. I always assumed that was the solar input. Like sometimes it’s a long foliage season with almost two peaks between Sept 15-Oct 15 here… other times it’s a quick acute change Oct 5-15. But after say Oct 15th, for whatever reason (solar?) it’s very hard to carry a full forest of leaves at this latitude. Even if they just go golden brown and fall off. There’s a much sharper back end to it IMO, the variation is more on the front end.

Yeah I guess I look at it all as the solar is going to fight the rising climate. You can’t carry green leaves into late October no matter how hot it is at this latitude in NNE. It could be 90F straight through and they’d be changing.

The thing with DIT is the projection of his thoughts in his backyard to all areas. If it’s dewey there, it’s dewey everywhere. Cutter melting his snow? Melt it all to CAR. Drought? It must be regionwide. The leaves are certainly behind last year but that’s because there was zero water in the ground, people worrying about their wells and stuff. If you have to worry about well water you can bet the trees aren’t having fun either, shut ‘em down early. But if you take two decades of foliage and average them, it’s definitely within a week of where it should be. Shocking too, as most of it has to do with solar and we know how much the sun angle varies from year to year lol.

I know you are just trolling at this point but you should take a NNE fall foliage tour in late October and tell us all how vibrant it is . On an aside, a friend and I looked at some past falls. We are definitely within a week or less of the past 20 years. This was 2008 first snow at Stowe on October 1st and the photos were a LOT greener than it is right now.

Dew points were low to mid 40s today it looked like. Very shallow cool air on the PWS map… several 41s locally in like the 750ft elevation area but then it’s 45-46F even by like 1,000-1,200ft. Summits around here upper 30s to low 40s. We’ll probably rot 39-42F the rest of the way tonight. Can usually radiate a bit below MMNV1’s summit temp this time of year… yielding upper 30s low locally if that forecast trick works out. I saw MVL already had 1/4sm visibility in fog… nothing like that yet here but can see suspended droplets in the lights when letting the dog out before bed.

41F crisp but starting to fog out. Some mist in the flood lights.

Frozen precip reported a half hour ago at the top of the mountain and we just had a burst of small hail or graupel at 1,500ft. I mean we are really reaching but it was frozen. The marginal cold pool aloft bringing down icy cores. I think it's more hail than graupel given max daytime heating and the radar signature.

Getting a nice mix of red and green right now. Not a lot of other colors.

Ha great image of today from BTV:

Can tell the cold season is coming.... there's some upslope precipitation into the Greens (this low level scan doesn't show that as well) but there's a Lake Champlain band that's been going south of the lake right down RT 7 in the valley. That cold north wind is enough to produce squally weather there in the flats SSE of the water.

After the past two days, I’m all set unless it’s going to snow. Let’s do sunshine and 60-75F for the next month. Hiking after work with the dog in 39-47F drizzle/mist from 5-7pm yesterday after work was less than enjoyable. Almost had to put a headlamp on too.

Beat me too it. That’s what I assume. Include winter water (that melts or leads to spring vegetation) and summer water to get a picture of how it influenced the environment? Especially out west with Mtn snows being a huge part of the following warm season water tables.

I was thinking stream flows and growing season for some reason. Like if I was monitoring for crops, I’d include cold season prior and that warm season? Restart it at the end of the growing season?

Chilly autumn evening. High terrain in the low 40s with lower spots of 1500ft and below 45-49F. Peaks upper 30s. It smells like fall outside, first woodsmoke smell of the year on the final dog walk of the night.

Hopefully Phin starting this thread brings the goods! No pressure bud, ha. Should at the very least get some rime icing above 4,500-5,000ft in the Adirondacks and Presidentials. 18z NAM came in warmer at 850mb so I doubt it’ll get low enough for the Greens. First snow shower obs of the season on MWN at 11:51am today.

Yeah I could definitely see that. I mean, without snow, life in New England in the cold season is dark, damp, and dreary. Having at least snow on the ground goes a long way to brightening things up. Especially without some weekly activity like skiing or snowmobiling to get some adrenaline and wintry views going. I can definitely see it… the 5-6 months of darkness for a few months of snow chances that could also just be a cold miserable rain. It’s not that hard to imagine why people move away for the winter in mid-latitude bands… either further north where that snow and pristine winter appeal is more of a guarantee, or down to like south of the Carolinas.