powderfreak

They are the meso-models and prone to being amped up... but it's a good look on the 00z HRRR for here to Phin before the southern low moves through. Dense snow, Gulf of Mexico connection and Atlantic inflow should lead to some QPF.

No issues there with widespread 0.75-1.25” QPF as frozen north of roughly DDH to CON to GYX. That’s a monster snow area, hundreds of miles in latitude with this event.

Hopefully it ticks south with the snow line for the RT 2 to RT 4 folks. These are the opposite of coastal storms… they like to lean east close in, these SW flow events (along a frontal boundary too) can lean north close in… especially if there’s any latent heat released down south ahead of it. The counter argument is that the flow has been progressive for years, maybe the models are slowing things down too much.

They are the standard IMO for precip collection. Manual over the tippers, though the electronic ones are solid these days.

He can probably get the thread back on track with a reference to an obscure snowstorm in the 1990s when many of us were “coming of age.” ”I knew I liked girls when during the sleeper storm of January 1992 I saw next-door-Sally struggling in the snow with her bicycle. She had a yardstick in her hand and a Stratus tied to the frame…”

That’s a great list… Atlantic City, Buffalo, and Boston all have had some great luck, while the inside of that geographic triangle has struggled snowfall wise. Not winter-wise though as temp departures have been cold (BTV almost -7 in January). Buffalo lined up for another healthy total in this next event… rare for them to get so many synoptic events out in Lake Effect land.

I love that! Might use that as I think RT 4 in VT is the sweet spot.

That’s a great run right there. Just solid snower for the entire North Country zone of RT 2 northward.

I like Rutland to Dendy and northward. ICON actually looked about my thoughts for the main snow line despite the model and it’s history. Could get some latent heat burps north too in the last 36 hours. The south push has stopped and she starts ticking back north.

Agreed. Makes perfect sense. Cold undercuts and mid-level warmth blasts north.

31F feels like t-shirt weather in the sunshine.

So torn as Boston is my favorite city… don’t know how to process this. Let’s go Red Sox.

Positive vibes only in this life.

EPS 6” snow probabilities. GEFS 6” probs. GGEM ENS 6” probs.

Figure a middle ground blend. RUT to LCI looks good for max stripe. Clown maps might oversell the gradient line. Need to watch any mid level sneaky layers. The Navy.

Amped and warm aloft is the concern. Elevation doesn’t matter if there’s a sneaky 700-800mb warm layer. The precip looks to be there given 2-3 standard deviation moisture feed. Just hope it’s a cold enough column.

Girlfriend's place at the time in the North End had over 30"... probably one of the biggest WTF wake-up mornings I've ever had. You do not expect an upslope signal to just absolutely mushroom cap downtown BTV. I didn't get home until later that day but renting a house in Jonesville/Richmond area I had upper teens like 17-18" of fluff (?) despite being along the west slope. The flow maximized it's lift a long way upstream from the terrain boundary. The ski area at Stowe only had like 9" and severe winds. That event led to the Froude Number study I believe. The one metric that tries to find out where the upslope band will reside.

I think for me it was that once the GFS moved west and impacted eastern SNE. It locked on there in the final couple days. It took it a while, but if you compare Coop and CoCoRAHS reports of liquid equivalent, the GFS was pretty damn close in the final couple days. The Euro was ripping widespread 1-2.5" QPF way inland, with those large areas of 1"/6 hour type rates moving up through Dendy like the NAM. It was a good close in showing of the GFS despite whiffing for several days prior.

Feels very old school. I like it. We all remember when it was pretty much illegal for Mets to spell out a full word in AFD's... the NWS back in the 1990s and early 2000s had nary a vowel to be found. Miss that, ha.

It will. There will be some Jan 2010 event again with 20-40 inches of blocked flow at the eastern lake shore. It's weird that an "upslope" event was actually BTV's largest snowstorm on record I believe with 36". There have been a few times since I've moved here full time in 2006 that the Champlain Valley has actually jackpotted on an "upslope" event with maritime moisture, cyclonic NNW winds and severe veering aloft that blocks the flow up to the lake shore.

Does that tactic work elsewhere? I'd be happy to answer any questions about snow up this way... depends on how much it matters too because I can tell you anywhere up and around the mountains will be a lot snowier than southern CT on the whole. Consistent snow cover, better arctic air masses, etc. There are so many microclimates you may not know about one until you move there. If you want a true weenie heaven, check out the Alpine Haven neighborhood near Jay Peak. I've known two people who live in there and I have to imagine that is one of the snowiest spots in New England. Nestled in a valley at 1,400-1,800ft right along the spine. They get a stunning amount of snow just off the fabled RT 242 and even radiate at night. Never really knew about that neighborhood until I started seeing friends posting photos on FB who live there. They definitely get more snow than the base of Stowe at 1,500ft IMO. It's just a pocket in a gap and you don't need to be rich to live there, pretty sweet. And if you want to go for a weenie drive, the road goes up over 2,000ft within two miles. If I was to pick one weenie spot in VT right now, that's it. Until I find the next best spot .

18z GEFS max snowfall zone goes right through us on that run. The GEFS has been north of the OP for several runs now as there are members that think we may even been too far south… so the mean between southern members like OP and the members thinking it rains well up north goes right through us.

The chickens drowning in snow.

That's a decent difference too with the wave. Absolutely croaks RT 2 in Mass and into NNE. Greenfield to HubbDave to Ray and up to Dendrite is 14-16". 12z vs. 18z at the same time:

That’s the fear for sure that it goes back to more of a cutter.