powderfreak

Need to go out west. Utah going to get rocked with another big cycle. Alta, Utah Collins Station has picked up 10” in the past 8 hours on ~0.9” water and the storm just started. 29” on the ground. Look at the y-axis on this model run for Alta, ha. I thought it was cm but no, it’s inches.

The day they stop reporting on Mansfield summit is the day I smash my laptop, ha. Even if it’s not an ASOS… put something up there that’s reliable and can continue the record.

Hate that. And I’d really hate it if I lived near there. What a unique station and history around the BOS area.

We get those occasionally… winter events, lol. But no really the times when it seems impossibly warm for so long and then a region wide snow event comes out of no where to end it in a minor torch relaxation. More likely to get that in a warm January or something, but all it takes is one trough. Be funny to have a well above normal temp November and sneak in above normal snow from a rogue event.

Less likely to get fake warmth out of those days too. Not stretching the atmospheric tails on both ends, usually just low diurnal changes.

Man, I love visiting the tropics of Burlington. Those white sandy beaches of Lake Champlain look nice with the Hilton hotel there behind it.

Lady bugs are bonkers these days up here. South/sunny side just plastered with the things. High of 63F but high clouds capped the warming.

Haha for sure life choices trump everything. I was just playing the devils advocate and sourpuss at losing my end of day light outside with the dog… already transitioning to the headlamp. Bottom line… Get out and ski or ride . Luckily there are places that turn on the lights for that too.

Kids test better in school with early daylight, and are more likely to be obese, depressed and sedentary with that early darkness. Pick the poison, ha. Its always a big topic in the northern tier rural zones. I had an entire UVM course around the Maine Winter Sports Center and combating lack of activity in kids (and their parents) during the darkest and coldest times of the year. Got some great trips out of that class to Fort Kent, lol. I’ve always wondered how activity levels after school and work would be if we could combine heat with low daylight. Like gets dark at 4pm but it’s still 80F at 8pm. Does that change routines of basically hibernating (especially more rural communities) during the dark time of year.

Yeah the getting dark early sucks. Really limits outdoor/active time. Gets to be headlamp season just to walk the dog. Gone are the hiking from 7-9pm days of summer, lol. Sure one can go to the gym or do sit-ups in their living room, but not the same as getting outside.

Nah many skiers all thought AIG was always doing things to save money to boost profits (like not making snow for 12 hours altered AIG’s global bottom line), especially after the taxpayers bailed the company out in like 2008 or 09. It doesn’t matter what ski area it is, if someone *thinks* it’s cold enough, or it’s not windy enough, or whatever… ski areas are always looking to save money by not making snow, running lifts, not grooming (even though it rained all night), etc. It can’t possibly be because there’s a valid other reason (temps, wind, weather, snow preservation, etc) .

Agreed. I'm not really sad by any means about it. It feels to go against what I used to live by but winter's are long up north... if we can enjoy a couple more weeks of these mild days and large diurnal swings, I'm all for it. November ribbon of death is fun for the first few runs and then it can be a while before any other meaningful skiing can take place.

Probably riding the roller coaster there for a while in mid-late Novie. It’ll be a step down from the first 10-14 days of the month though.

Until we see the Ensembles show more wholesale changes, I think we’ll keep seeing this back and forth. The 12z GFS went back to blowtorch where 6z had full winter. Settles in chilly at the very end though.

Raise the minimum at 1500ft. That’s a local warm spot. Like a Tolland hilltop… often stays well mixed. Nighttime is a snowmaking issue in that elevation band unless it’s strong CAA top-down cooling. Low diurnal temp changes often at 1500-2000ft.

Yeah North Slope from what historically is called “The Sun Spot” down… that’s like the top of middle T-Line on North Slope, top of Gulch, middle Standard type elevation. That’s usually like 2,200ft I think? Lower North Slope back to the Quad too is crutch, but those fan guns are decent. It’s just a lot of area that usually averages mid-30s for highs and doesn’t radiational cool either (mid-slope mixed)… so that 1500-2200ft is often warmer than town most nights. If it’s CAA pattern, it’s low enough that it needs to be deep cold to get wet-bulbs mid-20s and below. If it’s radiational, it’s often above the inversion so it stays warmer at night. A lot of like 24F up top, 34F at 1500ft, then 24F in town. Everyone wakes up to frozen in town, sees it’s lower 20s at the summit, and then is pissed the mountain didn’t make snow from 1500-2500ft … like trying to save money or something. But that mid-slope elevation can stay mild and be tough in November unless the air mass is truly cold (like 20F at summit or lower).

Yeah you’re right, the 5-day mean is slightly below average. Ops will have snowmaking going at any opportunity in November really, but I generally lean conservative now to set expectations, ha. Need some decent long lasting cold though to put down sufficient depths on 2,100 verts and a couple miles of trail. It’s a long run and wide elevation range to cover at Stowe… there’s no half run cheating available, or only above 2,500ft type stuff. Need it cold enough at 1500ft to build wide base depths and maze depths at bottom of the Quad. That 2,200-1,500ft zone keeps me pessimistic more than not.

The Ensembles have disagreed with each time the Op goes colder. There may be some brief chances for snowmaking but I bet it’s past 11/15 for anything sustained. OP 850mb anomaly… vs the Ensemble Mean.

Popes on Mopeds. Now there’s a gif or meme for GreatSnow to find.

Lol -15C 850s into Virginia. Ginxy’s cold shot. Even DIT might freeze in that type of look.

27F and frozen again. Another 40 degree drop off the 67F high temp yesterday. Like some Colorado valley weather lately with these consistent big swings.

Ha, right. I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means. Something definitely changes there… its just not -5 type days.

Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself. I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself. So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November. The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter. Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha. But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start.

MWN Record max of 48F today… looks like they got at least 46F? Close. Torch at all elevations.

12z GEFS want absolutely none of what the Op run was sniffing at the end of its run. Nov 15th. Fast zonal flow, not screaming excitement.