powderfreak

Looks like it goes well into tomorrow too. 11am and still ripping cells of heavy rain.

How are the globals over-doing the mid-level lift that much? I mean 3-6” water amounts over a large area… something fundamentally seems missing there. These types you can be shut out and then get 2.5” in 90 minutes at like 4am tomorrow. As usual in warm season huge variety in totals.

It’s the aerial coverage that’s wild. I mean that’s straight tropical storm and even a tropical storm probably wouldn’t be that widespread.

That was some ridiculously heavy rain. 1.5”+ in under an hour but it’s been stuck E/NE of here. About to head back to VT. Hope CT gets widespread drenching tonight.

Yeah I thought we got hit good but then it stalled east of here along the border.

Preseason training camp for when models show widespread 1-2” QPF and someone says “I think 2-4 or 3-6 here.” (I’m guilty as charged at times). Need to give a good ribbing.

It’s no Stratus and not submitting it to anything official but the random garden gauge is 1.50” now and still raining. Cant imagine north of here. Sturbridge must be under water. Lines up with radar estimates.

Holy crap. My Dad’s garden gauge looks like its over 1.0” already in like past half hour. Radar showing 3-4+” in Sturbridge now. This is torrential rain, driveway is washing out a bit. Muddy torrents. So much water coming out of the sky and we are on the southern end. The noise is deafening. Surprised no FFW in Southbridge/Sturbridge.

It is absolutely torrential rain right now. I mean if this is any indication you guys are good. This is instant rivers down driveway and dirt road. Muddy road. Beautiful country, Woodstock has a VT vibe. Dairy farms, rolling hills, dirt roads. Can walk under 1 mile to state line. Right under the reds.

I give you credit for a consistent lack of meteorological reasoning and just going with your emotions. Its convective, sure could only be 1.5” while a town away gets 4”. But it’s hard to be sitting in NCT right now and be Debbie downing it while handing out congrats to every other area in any direction. The only reasoning is a defense mechanism. I’m leaving later to go north but I told my dad 1.5-3.0”, could go more than 3” if it all comes together. There will be some heavy amounts in short duration bursts. Could get shut out for a long time but then hammer off 2.5” in 90 minutes. Briefly pouring here right now due south of Sturbridge/Southbridge, MA a mile under the state line.

Foggy, humid, and raining here as we get clipped along the MA border by that stuff traversing the Pike. It just feels like efficient rain coming, the boundary sagging south, the humidity pooling underneath it, some larger scale forcing as well.

Is this a defense mechanism? Models have been smoking N.CT for over a day, they still crank inches later today and tonight. I’m literally like three towns NE of you in CT right now and think it looks very favorable for heavy rain through Tuesday afternoon… What am I missing? You’ve outlined every area from the NNE mtns to Jersey to Ray to BOS to Tan but have yet to ever mention CT as potential?

From 1930s and 1960s drought talk to Flood Watches. Nature loves her irony. Once again proving why that worry seems over blown.

Through 8-9pm your 0.05” is more rain than numerous models show for you. If any indication you’re ahead of the game?

The DIT reverse psychology strikes again. May need to try it this winter. ”Congrats NNE, wagons North.” ”Congrats PA, NJ, LI, going to trend far south.” And then… CT jack?

Real shallow cool air moving in up north. Still 59F at BTV and 61F at MVL.... but also 61F at 4,000ft on Mount Mansfield. Rare this time of year to have an afternoon feature cooler temps in the lowest 1,000 feet slice of the atmosphere than up at summit level/near 850mb. Be curious to hear how this post might be confusing to anyone.

It’s out through 60 hours. 8pm Tuesday.

Never going to even know who Stein was by the end of the warm season… all that drought talk for naught at the end of the day? Like a couple rainers away from Flood Watches if this pans out. EURO and GFS and GGEM.

Yeah it’s real nice in CT at the lake. Hot and humid. Going back north tomorrow AM to avoid the rain.

BTV down to 59F by noon after 70F at 7:30am. Good call Tip on the colder air working down the valley. 50s in NVT and 80-85F most of SNE.

Looks like the front is through back home? Was 73F at MVL at 11:30pm and now down to 66F as of 1:20pm. North wind at 10-15mph. Temp is going the wrong way diurnally.

What?

Isn’t tan the most rain on that map?

Dangerous using the GFS though, right? 3km NAM had some nice enhancement over the Tolland Massif.

Was there today too, ha. Photo looks familiar. Fantastic day for it. French Fries and Del’s Lemonade for lunch. When in the Fair… first time in probably 15 years after going every year growing up.