powderfreak

Hammer time is a good indication of a synoptic setup. SW to NE arcing banding from BGM-UCA-ALB-DDH-CON... with the hammer handle echoes going SSW to NNE and blossoming on an upslope/mesoscale level. Anytime you see the hammer form its a sign of a strengthening/consolidating event. Moisture streaming northward and deforming.

Pretty interesting how all day long the HRRR has moved the highest-end localized totals back to the SW along the boundary. The strongest convergence along that axis keeps heading west with time after hitting areas further northeast. The amounts were realized elsewhere, it should line up somewhere in SW CT. It started over NE MA early this morning, moved into far NE CT/S.MA, then PVD and east-central CT, and now progged to shift west into the southern CT/NY border region.

Yeah it's no winter-time fronto gradient or mid-level lift on relatively dry air mass... but it's enough widespread air upgliding in a moisture rich environment for a huge swath of 0.50-1.50" water on the PWS map from southern PA up through southwest ME? It's a very large scale soaking rainfall so far with more to come. I guess was what I was going for with the synoptic aspect.

Thats crazy. 7” is wild in that short a duration. Same for Ginxy’s area. Super impressive. That’s not a bad radar estimate.

True, it was “South of the Pike” for heaviest amounts type of look in the warm sector. A huge shield of rain has been in place all day long from PA into NY state and across southern NNE and northern SNE. Guess that’s called CNE lol. It may show how boring the summer weather has been, but this event has captured me. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Meteorologically it’s got the deeper layer synoptic lift from mid-level fronto and lifting of moist southwesterly flow aloft… then also very strong lower level lift with 850mb to surface winds turning ESE into the surface frontal boundary. Synoptic scale and mesoscale. Intriguing. Another 15+ hours at least to go too.

Yeah for the highest amounts for sure. Scattershot in a way that it’s luck of the draw. I still like the radar look for a more widespread moderate rain outside the 2-3”/hr stuff. Everyone in CT should get over an inch by morning. Seems to be filling in nicely?

Models have it raining into tomorrow afternoon so we’ll see. NAM at 12pm The GFS even has it going into late afternoon/early evening?

I need you to rain tonight and tomorrow morning or I’ll need to eat crow. My father says they are around 2” but most of that fell within an hour this morning.

This Sox fan is one of them. He’s a very likeable guy. He’s earned respect too… he’s like a Jeter in that regard that he’s immune from the Red Sox fan base hate that comes with the rivalry. Certain players transcend that. I hope Judge gets it. Back up in VT now… a few hundredths maybe? Was raining the whole way most of the time until about Montpelier. Dried out last 20-30 min of the ride.

This is the stuff we come to the forum for. Both of you with much value added today. Thanks.

Looks like it goes well into tomorrow too. 11am and still ripping cells of heavy rain.

How are the globals over-doing the mid-level lift that much? I mean 3-6” water amounts over a large area… something fundamentally seems missing there. These types you can be shut out and then get 2.5” in 90 minutes at like 4am tomorrow. As usual in warm season huge variety in totals.

It’s the aerial coverage that’s wild. I mean that’s straight tropical storm and even a tropical storm probably wouldn’t be that widespread.

That was some ridiculously heavy rain. 1.5”+ in under an hour but it’s been stuck E/NE of here. About to head back to VT. Hope CT gets widespread drenching tonight.

Yeah I thought we got hit good but then it stalled east of here along the border.

Preseason training camp for when models show widespread 1-2” QPF and someone says “I think 2-4 or 3-6 here.” (I’m guilty as charged at times). Need to give a good ribbing.

It’s no Stratus and not submitting it to anything official but the random garden gauge is 1.50” now and still raining. Cant imagine north of here. Sturbridge must be under water. Lines up with radar estimates.

Holy crap. My Dad’s garden gauge looks like its over 1.0” already in like past half hour. Radar showing 3-4+” in Sturbridge now. This is torrential rain, driveway is washing out a bit. Muddy torrents. So much water coming out of the sky and we are on the southern end. The noise is deafening. Surprised no FFW in Southbridge/Sturbridge.

It is absolutely torrential rain right now. I mean if this is any indication you guys are good. This is instant rivers down driveway and dirt road. Muddy road. Beautiful country, Woodstock has a VT vibe. Dairy farms, rolling hills, dirt roads. Can walk under 1 mile to state line. Right under the reds.

I give you credit for a consistent lack of meteorological reasoning and just going with your emotions. Its convective, sure could only be 1.5” while a town away gets 4”. But it’s hard to be sitting in NCT right now and be Debbie downing it while handing out congrats to every other area in any direction. The only reasoning is a defense mechanism. I’m leaving later to go north but I told my dad 1.5-3.0”, could go more than 3” if it all comes together. There will be some heavy amounts in short duration bursts. Could get shut out for a long time but then hammer off 2.5” in 90 minutes. Briefly pouring here right now due south of Sturbridge/Southbridge, MA a mile under the state line.

Foggy, humid, and raining here as we get clipped along the MA border by that stuff traversing the Pike. It just feels like efficient rain coming, the boundary sagging south, the humidity pooling underneath it, some larger scale forcing as well.

Is this a defense mechanism? Models have been smoking N.CT for over a day, they still crank inches later today and tonight. I’m literally like three towns NE of you in CT right now and think it looks very favorable for heavy rain through Tuesday afternoon… What am I missing? You’ve outlined every area from the NNE mtns to Jersey to Ray to BOS to Tan but have yet to ever mention CT as potential?

From 1930s and 1960s drought talk to Flood Watches. Nature loves her irony. Once again proving why that worry seems over blown.

Through 8-9pm your 0.05” is more rain than numerous models show for you. If any indication you’re ahead of the game?

The DIT reverse psychology strikes again. May need to try it this winter. ”Congrats NNE, wagons North.” ”Congrats PA, NJ, LI, going to trend far south.” And then… CT jack?