powderfreak

While I agree greatly about the fact that temperatures have been a key driver of this stretch, I will push back slightly on the no big storms for the mountains. Maybe I'm thinking more in terms of cycles, but we've had at least two 20"+ "cycles" over say a 2-3 day period. I do think the upper elevations of 3,000ft+ are wearing the brunt of the positive snowfall departures over the valleys too. Often we see in synoptic seasons like 2007-2008, the valley locations under 1,000ft can see just as much snow as the mountains... because it's synoptic forcing up at 700mb and above. You get a 1" QPF dump and it hits at 300ft almost the same as at 3,000ft if the temperatures are cold enough. But this stretch has been meso-scale driven and just loaded QPF and snowfall into the upper elevations non-stop. And a bunch of the early snows in November were heavy QPF events. It was elevational driven too... like when Stowe opened with 250 acres of terrain all on natural snow essentially back in mid-November, my backyard had next to nothing. There was a monster gradient in there for 2-3 weeks around 1,500ft. From like 1-3" to like 18"+. Which I think is seen in some of the lower elevation snowfall numbers as to why they aren't as ahead of normal as some other years... while the mountains are clearly in record territory. I do agree on the bread and butter though... despite a couple of "big events" they aren't hyped events. I think there was one Winter Storm Warning? Even Advisories have been limited for this, largely because the snow has been impacting higher elevation spots and been mesoscale in nature. The Stowe Snow Report team ran a SWE analysis yesterday for NWS/NOAA and I'll share some photos later, but we generally found 55" depth at 3,000ft High Road with 13" of water. While 1,500ft was 26" snow depth and 6" of water. Both plots were consistent at 23-24% water. 13" of water up high seemed fairly impressive for a snowpack that began roughly 6 weeks ago. That's a good slug of frozen QPF! And would check out for over 100" of snowfall.

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month. -10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

It wants to snow. Another little wave moving through this evening. Persistent -SN.

What a run its been. The rainless streak is about to end for the mountains, and this one could be a solid soaker. It won't be out of the ordinary, IMO, for a cutter this time of year... but its felt like a good month since we've had a healthy cutter. Two straight weeks to start December at -10.5F departure and plentiful snow, following a cool and wet November that featured plenty of higher elevation snows. Sucks, but it wasn't going to be snowless and warm out west all season... same with it wasn't going to be cold, deep powder all season here. Once it starts to snow in the Sierra and Rockies, it will signal a change. The surface conditions are going to change in New England, but the snowpack should still be solidly above normal.

This is the content I sign on to see. Nice, wintry scene. Classic New England scene. That’s legit December.

He’s established and respected. Not some nobody looking for web clicks. He has to believe it on some level. 12/9 with Light Snow. A nice dusting over the past hour. Visibilities staying high though at 3sm.

This is the internet in a nutshell with all topics. Everything is wrong all the time crowd vs everything is great all the time crowd. Most of us fall on a spectrum of that but there are clear tendencies.

If humans make every decision based on the dumbest people of the population, we’d get no where.

Mansfield stake goes over 5 feet and beats the previous earliest 60”+ depth by two weeks. Skiing is all-time, just like the depths.

63” Stake Depth on December 12th is absolutely insane. There’s more snow right now than the maximum depth of a non-trivial amount of winters.

4" more today. 19" measured since Wednesday AM. It skis like 30" though, ha.

It’s still snowing. Unbelievable stuff out there on the mountain. Just deep powder everywhere. Today’s stake reading should put this year back in the all-time #1 position for this time of year since 1954. And it could be by like a half foot too.

It's not accumulating very fast, but there's some steady gusty small flake (arctic sand) falling. It covers things up quickly but doesn't stack very well. Cold shallow moisture continues to stream into the region on NW flow. Nocturnal inversion is trying to squeeze out all remaining moisture from an arctic airmass.

December 11th and we have already measured roughly 33% of the seasonal snowfall at the Mt Mansfield plots. I know I harp on this, but I think the measured part is important when comparing years. If it’s not measured, but eyeballed, guessed, estimated… it’s hard to compare year to year. It becomes more vibe based, than data based. Both methods can tell a story, but this season being at 30+% of annual measured snow (in a controlled manner) is incredible to me… as someone who’s personally been involved in the process for almost 20 years now. This isn’t a marketing ploy. The various data points support it. Last year at this time the FourRunner Quad had been running for exactly one week. This year it’s been 3+ weeks of deep, skier supporting natural snowpack.

It truly is around a once a generation start based on the 70+ years of Mansfield stake data. It’s December 11th. It feels and looks like February.

Just absolutely rugged out. 9F, gusty winds, arctic fine flake snow adding 2-3” more today, blowing snow, sub-zero wind chills.

Some might call it a candidate?

Nighttime is definitely more productive upslope and my theory has always been it has to do with the developing nocturnal inversion that happens at night. It tends to allow for a more concentrated band of low level snow. Daytime heating tends to disrupt it to some degree (of course unless it is just a monster set up and moisture/wind overpowers it, ie northern Greens)... I feel like the most concentrated upslope bands occur once the nocturnal inversion tries to set in aloft, trapping moisture in the low levels too, enhancing the terrain's influence further... while daytime heating causes it to go more cellular or convective showers. I think we see it with Lake Effect too... you see more cellular squally stuff during the day but then at night you get those diesel bands of 3-5"/hr that just park themselves.

Another 3” overnight on the car, around 6” for the event.

That’s nice.

4” at base snow plot.

3” so far at all elevations from town to upper mountain. Really no change with elevation it seems.

Will’s got me beat. I don’t think in two decades I’ve ever seen Will post from a state of anger or despair. Dendrite too. I do remember losing it in January 2014 though… more inches of rain than snow while Philly is under their 6th winter storm warning…and if I hear Leon Lett, I might have flashbacks.

Ha, I’m like that too. Some might say overly optimistic and can find a positive in falling face down into dog shit (is that corn?). I’ve been told it would be better if I got more upset… sports, weather, life, etc.

I will say over the years when DIT gets down, he doesn’t stay down for long.